Who do I think will win?
I think I don't know. In fact, I know I don't know.
I also think, and think I know, it'll be a lot, LOT closer than this poll currently suggests .... perhaps because most voting on this poll can't vote in the actual election.
My analysis is this :-
- most Democrats aren't going to even consider voting McCain
- a lot, probably most Republicans won't consider voting Obama
- the undecideds, and/or swings, probably include a lot that wouldn't vote Bush (again)
A very big indeterminate factor is how many that might have voted Republican will punish them for Bush. On the other hand, McCain isn't Bush. So if they're inclined towards Republicans, can they overcome the Bush effect enough to try McCain.
It's just far to unclear to predict how those whose vote actually decided this will go .... or how the Bush effect might affect Republican turnout.
Who I
want to win? That's a whole different issue.
