Tesla Model 3 event

[Saracen]

... You're the most contrary person I've ever met... which I mean affectionately, but it seems every time anything crops up here, you're against it out of some principle or other. You remind me of a friend, who refused to buy a new car because wind-down windows were no longer an option!!
...

Nah, not me ..... I love electric windows.

It's taken in that spirit ... not least because it's pretty true. It's why I often pick up on generalisations - the contrarian in me reads something and thinks "Ah, but .... "

It's a bit more than that in this case, though, because what the bulk of this amusing argument (in the nicest sense) is about is how to define "rich". And that was my initial point - it's in the eye of the beholder.

There is no easy, universally-accepted definition. Most current dictionary definitions say things like "lot of money" (very simplistic) or "lot of money or valuable possessions." That latter is better, but begs the question .... how much is "a lot". It doesn't clarify much and indeed, is rather circular.

To some, you're filthy rich. Why? You have food on the table, access to good medical care, shoes on your feet and you own a car, any car. To many in deprived parts of the world, buying a bicycle is a project requiring sacrifice and years of saving. A car is ... well, the same of you or me buying a private jet. It's subjective.

Other definitions I've seen of "rich" include being a higher-rate taxpayer, a top-rate taxpayer, having double the national average income, being one of the top 1%,

....

But still, your princess meets the criteria of being comfortable after disposing of one's substantial disposable income... in the same way that people who buy a massive pleasure yacht but then have to sell it, because they can't maintain it and still live comfortably, aren't as rich as they thought.

Well, she meets it in the sense that the sun is brighter than a glow-worm, yes, though as a happily married man, I'd point out she's not my princess. And while, were I not married I'd certainly have categorised her as very attractive, physically and financially, getting the acceptance of her family might have been .... problematic. And personally, picking that particular fight with the Saudi Royal family is not a fight I'm up for. Nah, she's definitely off-limits.


And even if they didn't intimidate me, I'm certainly not crossing my wife.

....Same as the mechanic I work with, him being self-employed.
But still, he can average out his income and provide an annual value for comparrison to a regular salary.

At the risk of being contrary, .... no, because he can average it out. As can many/most self-employed. We're starting to get very close to those areas that I said were off-limits for me, not least for privacy reasons, but ....

.... Most seld-employed people have a fairly regular income stream. It's certainly not PAYE-level regular, and be it hair-dresser, window-cleaner or, yes, independent mechanic, he has a level of trade that is reasonably consistent. That is, lots of relatively small jobs, and while the names of customers may vary, and you mght get a few new ones, or indeed, lose a few, there's a relatively predictable flow.

Now compare that to, say, an artist who, if they sell a painting, may get £30k for it, but may sell three a year, or none in two years. then five to a single customer. It is not averageable because it's highly inconsistent, and past sales are no indicator of future sales. It's why that requires an unconventional approach to financial planning.

I use a small, independent mechanic for my car servicing needs because, a) he's FAR cheaper than main dealers, not having to pay for vast infrastructures and b) gives FAR better customer service. But, he's pretty much constantly booked about 2 weeks ahead. He no doubt doesn't know who his customers will be next month, but he's got a pretty good idea of how many there'll be.

[Ttaskmaster]

Why can't there be a standard for car battery packs? If they could also be swapped quickly then there could be a machine in the ground that swaps your dead battery back for a charged one.

They already trialled schemes where you swap your dead one for a fresh one at the station, before carrying on. Nice and quick, etc.
The schemes proved very unpopular with owners, for no discernible reason of which I am aware...

There will be price differentials (there are now, ecotricity's USP is green energy) - just as there are for petrol stations for the same product.

I'm wondering how much difference there will be, even if it's invented marketing BS.

It is easier to protect a few feet of cable at one location than several miles of cable. CCTV is one deterrent. Armoured cable may be another. Either way, this wont be a deal breaker.

I'm sure it won't be a breaker, but it is still a risk.
Incidentally, most railway thefts target the trackside junction boxes rather than the overhead cables themselves.

Completely different scenario. Diesel is not compressible so there is very little stored mechanical energy in a fuel system.

But if that rail blows off under pressure, it WILL be going through the top of your bonnet!!!

I'm surprised you are so negative about the potential for the technology. Early adopters pay a premium (in any new application of technology) but none of the 'problems' you cite are unsurmountable.

The potential technology - Not in the slightest.
The forseeable cost of that technology, the capacity for exploitation and a number of problems inherrent in EVs (every EV owner I know either nearly, or has, run someone obver because they're fast and quiet) are what I have serious concerns over.

That and I'd rather have a Thorium-powered vehicle!!
Generally though, I love my old junk because it tends to work. I will insist on that junk until you show me something that clearly is a far better and worthy replacement, rather than a slight variation that might possibly one day turn out to be better... I still find touchscreens of extremely limited use, especially when it comes to typing anything and I also hate how cars seem to be going toward having one big tablet inside and no other features/controls whatsoever.

the contrarian in me reads something and thinks "Ah, but .... "

I have an element of that myself, which is what I think I recognise. Also why I seem to cause so many arguments on here, I expect!!

And that was my initial point - it's in the eye of the beholder.

But at the same time, the marketing of "affordable" EVs is not clear as to who is supposed to be buying them. The headlines about the Death Of Diesel and no non-EVs by 2020/25/30/40 all suggest everyone should be looking to replace and go green.

While the definitions of rich may vary between contexts, if not outright subjectivity, I get the distinct impression from the adverts that I (earning above average income) should be within the affordable-EV marketing bracket... more so as I am definitely made to feel like Ming The Merciless, Destroyer Of The Earth because I cannot afford anything other than a battered up 14-year-old diesel... and I only don't mind because Ming was played by Max Von Sydow.

though as a happily married man, I'd point out she's not my princess.

And again, there's the similarity to the aforementioned friend...!

And even if they didn't intimidate me, I'm certainly not crossing my wife.

She's free to join in - I think you're allowed more than one in Saudi, aren't you?

Now compare that to, say, an artist who, if they sell a painting, may get £30k for it, but may sell three a year, or none in two years. then five to a single customer. It is not averageable because it's highly inconsistent, and past sales are no indicator of future sales.

I'm not talking about financial planning, though. Just figuring out a value by which you can compare existing incomes... even if you have to average out over several years, you can still figure out that you earn the equivalent of £45k a year selling £30k paintings, compared to a sewer jetter earning (again under very uncertain levels of workload) roughly £17k a year.

But, he's pretty much constantly booked about 2 weeks ahead. He no doubt doesn't know who his customers will be next month, but he's got a pretty good idea of how many there'll be.

Mine knows less in terms of how many he'll get, partly due to seasonal variance and partly because he deals more in bigger stuff like engine rebuilds.

[Saracen]

The battery pack is made to fit the contours of the chassis, so (at the moment) each one is unique to the vehicle.

Convenient, that, innit?

How hard would it be to devise a standard battery 'compartment', to be incorporated into chassis designs? Or even a small menu say 3 or 4, of designs. Nothing aids profiteering like a unique product that we, the customer, can't get anywhere else.

What might be trickier is if the battery design itself was a proprietary design that a manufacturer wants kept to itself as a USP.

[Saracen]

They already trialled schemes where you swap your dead one for a fresh one at the station, before carrying on. Nice and quick, etc.
The schemes proved very unpopular with owners, for no discernible reason of which I am aware.

I can think of a reason.

I buy a new (for example) Tesla, with miniscule usage, and in order to get going ehen it runs flat, I get my 1000 mile battery replaced with one that might have 30000 miles on it.

Nah, I've bought an expensive car and expect to get good usage out of it without a potluck lottery evety time the battery needs a charge.

This is part of why, for me, EVs aren't there yet - I can't get an EV that does what I want from, and get from, an IC engine, short of eye-wateringly expensive models.

Yet.

But it's coming.

[Saracen]

I'm not talking about financial planning, though. Just figuring out a value by which you can compare existing incomes... even if you have to average out over several years, you can still figure out that you earn the equivalent of £45k a year selling £30k paintings, compared to a sewer jetter earning (again under very uncertain levels of workload) roughly £17k a year.


Mine knows less in terms of how many he'll get, partly due to seasonal variance and partly because he deals more in bigger stuff like engine rebuilds.

But even so, if over the years he's done 10 rebuilds a year, +/-2, he can probably assume 6 to 10 next year. If he's seen a 10% year on year increase, naybe he admusts that to 7 to 11.

But suppose he did :-

Yr 1 = 3
Yr 2 = 58
Yr 3 = 9
Yr 4 = 350
Yr 5 = 41
Yr 6 = 2
Yr 7 = 116
Yr 8 = 0
Yr 9 = 0
Yr 10 = 212.

It is simpke to calculate an average of those. In fact, I could do three averages (mean, median and mode) in about a minute, but .... what would it tell me about year 11? Or Year 15?

If you are going to use statistics to project forward, you not only need the projected result, but the high confidence level. If you have a very high standard deviation, you have very limited (and in my case, almost zero) ability to rely on a projected income of £x, plus or minus £y, because y is very large in comparison to x.

Regardless of how many 'engines I rebuilt' last year, or over the last 30 years, I might never rebuild another. Or I might get two. I might even get a contract for several a year for 5 years. Or not.

In my case, which is what we were talking about at that point, it's very much about financial planning. The only predictable part of my income comes from previous financial planning, as I described earlier.

I'm not sure how much further this already strained analagy can be pushed, and I can't be much clearer without going into detail I'm not prepared to. It's getting rather circular.

[Gerrard]

Convenient, that, innit?

How hard would it be to devise a standard battery 'compartment', to be incorporated into chassis designs? Or even a small menu say 3 or 4, of designs. Nothing aids profiteering like a unique product that we, the customer, can't get anywhere else.

What might be trickier is if the battery design itself was a proprietary design that a manufacturer wants kept to itself as a USP.

Well, why can't we have a standard engine design that everyone uses? True, there is a fair amount of sharing of certain engines between certain models, but you can view batteries as the same sort of thing. There are several factors affecting the compatibility of a battery to the drive-train, mainly the voltage and current, with cooling capability and energy storage being other factors.

[TeePee]

Well, why can't we have a standard engine design that everyone uses? True, there is a fair amount of sharing of certain engines between certain models, but you can view batteries as the same sort of thing. There are several factors affecting the compatibility of a battery to the drive-train, mainly the voltage and current, with cooling capability and energy storage being other factors.

To be fair, everything should have an LS...

[Noxvayl]

Horses for courses... price per mile, EV (any EV) is so significantly cheaper than an ICE car that I am literally buying one in January simply because I save as much per month on petrol as I would pay for a new asset. I won't be selling my BMW 320Ci either, I'll be modding that as best I can for some fun and track days. Engineers are weird with their toys, but I'm upgrading from computers to cars now, I'm a big boy

My only choice in EV is whether I go for a rental type scheme or buy the car outright, which I haven't decided on yet. Either way, my dad is getting one next, after his CLS350 (paid for by his company) is worth trading in for one.

If I had a choice, I'd buy outright and it would be the Model 3... but I won't get delivery until 2019 so I'll go with something else like a Zoe, or Leaf or the i3 depending on which my mother likes most.

This is how you 'go green'. Tesla, for all the noise, is destined for bankruptcy.

Really? Like all UK households bar the 5% earning above £100k... Not how the world works anymore. Share price, despite what you think, matters; a lot more than I would want it to but that is another story

I'm all for better tech. Currently it's not better and will be a good while before it is.

Not sure what world you live in but... no, just everything about that sentence is wrong on so many levels my brain is hurting at the moment.

From the rest of the conversation, I also just want you to drive a damn EV. I drove the BMW i3 and right after that the M140i (same monthly cost to me) and guess which one was better? no really, you can't understand the appeal of instant torque until you experience it; the same way you can't understand how good an SSD is until you use one and go back.

[Saracen]

Well, why can't we have a standard engine design that everyone uses? True, there is a fair amount of sharing of certain engines between certain models, but you can view batteries as the same sort of thing. There are several factors affecting the compatibility of a battery to the drive-train, mainly the voltage and current, with cooling capability and energy storage being other factors.

We could, I suppose .... but engines don't impose the same usage limitations that batteries do.

I don't know about you, but when I reach tbe mileage limit of my car, I don't swap the engine, I spend 5 minutes (and a shedload of money) filling the fuel tank.

A better analogy would be to solve that problem by replacing the entire fuel tank with a full one and we don't do that because, well, it'd be stupid.

One of my red lines for investing I an EV is yo be able to get around the same non-stop range as I can from my current car, which means around 350-400 miles. 300 I could live with, but 150 is an utter non-starter. Getting 350-400 miles from a single charge in an EV limits you to a subset of current EVs that, in Ttaskmaster's terms, are the prerogative of "rich men".

Another red line is to "fill up" as quickly, easily and effortlessly as I currently (excuse pun) can.

And a third red line is a price tag that doesn't put Porsche Aston Martin etc in the frame as the alternatives.

[Saracen]

.... no really, you can't understand the appeal of instant torque until you experience it; the same way you can't understand how good an SSD is until you use one and go back.

Oh dear. An EV had better make much, MUCH more difference to my driving experience than an SSD does to my computing life, or given the costs, it's a non-starter.

I have an SSD. I installed it, put the OS on, installed and configured my main applications and used it. It's faster, for sure. But does it make any perceptible difference to my working efficiency? No, it does not. So, rather than spend ages getting everything on to the SSD, I went back to the HD. I'll probably switch to the SSD next time I do a clean install, but meantime, the SSD has been sitting on a shelf for, oh, 4 or 5 years.

Yes, I know everyone's going to tell me about boot times, switching windows etc, but given how I use my PC, I do the former about once per day, and the latter .... from time to time. But mostly, I'm buried in WP for a morning, or Excel or accounts for an afternoon.

Do I care if my PC has an SSD or not? Not even a little bit. But, of course, YMMV, and probably does.

[Gerrard]

Batteries are more than just a "fuel tank"; they are an integral part of the performance of an EV. The larger ones will also weigh more than 300kg which doesn't help the logistics or moving them around plus the integration of that much weight into a chassis of a car.

[Noxvayl]

Oh dear. An EV had better make much, MUCH more difference to my driving experience than an SSD does to my computing life, or given the costs, it's a non-starter.

I have an SSD. I installed it, put the OS on, installed and configured my main applications and used it. It's faster, for sure. But does it make any perceptible difference to my working efficiency? No, it does not. So, rather than spend ages getting everything on to the SSD, I went back to the HD. I'll probably switch to the SSD next time I do a clean install, but meantime, the SSD has been sitting on a shelf for, oh, 4 or 5 years.

Yes, I know everyone's going to tell me about boot times, switching windows etc, but given how I use my PC, I do the former about once per day, and the latter .... from time to time. But mostly, I'm buried in WP for a morning, or Excel or accounts for an afternoon.

Do I care if my PC has an SSD or not? Not even a little bit. But, of course, YMMV, and probably does.

lol

Ok Saracen, you crazy old fart... but if you go and get yourself a test drive in any EV, come back and report on how enjoyable it is to drive will you?

[Noxvayl]

We could, I suppose .... but engibes don't impose the same usage limitations that batteries do.

I don't know about you, but when I reach tbe mileage limit of my car, I don't swap the engine, I spend 5 minutes (and a shedload of money) filling the fuel tank.

A better analogy would be to solve that problem by replacing the entire fuel tank with a full one and we don't do that because, well, it'd be stupid.

One of my red lines for investing I an EV is yo be able to get around the same non-stop range as I can from my current car, which means around 350-400 miles. 300 I could live with, but 150 is an utter non-starter. Getting 350-400 miles from a single charge in an EV limits you to a subset of current EVs that, in Ttaskmaster's terms, are the prerogative of "rich men".

Another red line is to "fill up" as quickly, easily and effortlessly as I currently (excuse pun) can.

And a third red line is a price tag that doesn't put Porsche Aston Martin etc in the frame as the alternatives.

1. Batteries last longer than engines/drive train in ICE cars and their performance is exceeding expectations worldwide based on usage data we now have. Some estimates say that the Tesla Model S batteries are likely to outlast the rest of the components while maintaining more than 90% of the performance.

2. How important is battery life to you on a phone? Do you own an old 3310 just because it lasts months? I don't because charging the phone every day after use is sufficient for 100% use case for the vehicle. As such charging your car everyday is the same, just that you can do it in parking lots (sometimes cheaper than paying for parking with incentives) and at your home. This range anxiety I think is utter nonsense. 200-300 mile range is perfectly acceptable, expecially when it only takes 30 mins to do 20-80% charge so stopping for a toilet break plus food = full tank most the time.

3. Not only has the technology been around for centuries now (EVs dominated the car market before the turn of the 20th century) and as such will most certainly be the future of transport. The only decision right now is how much you "invest" in autonomous features for your car. Which might actually sway me to put a deposit down on the Model 3 and spend money on an LPG mod for my 3 series (LPG mods paying themselves back within a year at current fuel costs).

Sorry for ranting a bit, I am a tech/car enthusiast as it runs in the family being interested in mechanical items. not just the boys, some of our female members are crazy about cars

[TheAnimus]

lol

Ok Saracen, you crazy old fart... but if you go and get yourself a test drive in any EV, come back and report on how enjoyable it is to drive will you?

Nah I'm sort of with him there.

An SSD on my work machine is completely essential timesaving, but that's because I've a high random IO workload.

My home machine? Games load faster, chrome launches faster, windows boots faster. It's not such a big deal, it's more a luxury.

The same is true with cars, ultimately no one needs something that accelerates that fast, it's a fun thing, rather than making a big deal.

[Noxvayl]

Nah I'm sort of with him there.

An SSD on my work machine is completely essential timesaving, but that's because I've a high random IO workload.

My home machine? Games load faster, chrome launches faster, windows boots faster. It's not such a big deal, it's more a luxury.

The same is true with cars, ultimately no one needs something that accelerates that fast, it's a fun thing, rather than making a big deal.

Yes it is fun... but it is also safer than conventional cars because:

1. Regenerative braking means driving with one pedal
2. Regenerative breaking significantly reduces reaction times when it comes to stopping distance
3. Sensors and autonomous coding mean the car can avoid a collision you never see coming (detailed in many YouTube videos)
4. Who wants to park there car on a crowded street when they get home? all Tesla cars can summon and park themselves, so I for one will love to go to work, get out and tell the car to go do whatever it wants until I need it again.

We are talking about a car becoming more than just a means of transport here. Not purely "fun" side effects of the technology.

[DanceswithUnix]

And that is the same kind of thinking behind the aforementioned principle which I feel would be successful where EVs will fail. Too much change, too much forced change, too great a change and too soon, all with massive expenses for only incremental improvements in technology.

There is a problem with such things though, AIUI a fuel cell can't power a car at full load so you need a battery to smooth out the power delivery to handle starting and hills. That makes the car basically a serial hybrid, just using a tank of ethanol and fuel cell rather than a tank of petrol and an engine for range extension. That makes it a very slight increment in design over say a Pious, which I can see being a rather hard sell compared to the dream of having solar panels on your house roof feeding an energy store during the day and using them to charge your car at night.

That sort of story I think matters to a lot of people, the idea of being part of the future. You could point out the energy stored in the fatbergs floating around the sewers of our cities is enough to power a lot of cars, but good luck convincing people of the dream of sewer fat powered vehicles whatever the range you could manage