Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

[j1979]

I’m sorry, whilst you are right that I am not on the ground there, I find it incredibly naïve to believe that all Western sponsors are doing is providing sweet tea to protesters, especially when there are confirmed right wing extremists playing a huge role in the protests, and now have members in the Interim Government. And I can fully understand why the people of Ukraine have had enough and are reacting the way they are, but it appears you also want me to say that I can’t understand why Russia and the pro Russians are reacting the way they are as well. Yet I can fully understand why a pro-Russian person in Ukraine would feel the way they do at the moment. The interim Government didn’t exactly try to allay any fears that section had by immediately removing Russian as a state language.

I agree i was ill advised to instanly remove Russian as the state language, however

You are again misinformed and believe the Russian propaganda. Pro Russian groups in Ukrainian including Viktor Yanukovych's party twist the truth on the Ukrainian language. Yes the inner big cities in the east are predominantly Russian, but the poor outside of the big cities on the east and west are Ukrainian. Ukrainian is the mother tongue of the majority.



When I first arrived in Odessa, It was difficult, all the road signs were in Ukrainian, all the maps were in Russian and i only spoke English at the time, over the years the Ukrainian language was used more as they turned back the years of Soviet assimilation and more and everything was brought into sync across mainland Ukraine and even Crimea. When Yanukovych arrived this was reversed back to the mess we had in 2013.

Poor people in Ukraine are not well educated and tend not to vote or their vote are brought by rich Russians with an agenda.

And for your information the Maidan in Kiev had a lot of Russian speakers many state more than Ukrainian. The general Ukrainian population could not afford to get to Kiev. Then Maidan is not about East vs West... it's about change!

I’m sorry, but if you anticipate that Turkey are going to do anything other than try to bring the Russians and Ukrainians round the table to help broker peace, you’re likely to be sorely disappointed IMO. Turkey will not get involved militarily (or even sanctions wise), and with Crimera being overwhelmingly ethnic Russian, and being of huge strategic importance to Russia, I think most people can see what the (best possible) end game here is for Ukraine.

And it’s not about folding, it’s about being pragmatic. If Ukraine wants to avoid bloodshed, they will have to recognise this. The International Community didn’t come to Georgia’s help (when it was arguably more clear cut than this issue), and won’t come to the Ukraine’s should any fighting break out. Most importantly, Russia knows this too.

Maybe you are right. But there are protests in Istanbul already, the public don't want a Russian Crimea and they have a lot of influence their.

[HalloweenJack]

economics - sending troops to crimea has caused the Russian stockmarket to dive - a lot. putin is blaming the USA fiscal policy , but reality says its a direct effect on last weeks invasion. I don't think even he would expect the Russian economy to be as hit as it is and so quickly, as said above , the EU is coming out of winter so gas useage isn't so great , any many countries have a good deal of surplus

[j1979]

GREAT NEWS


even Russia today are saying the invasion is wrong and that Russia made a mistake. amazing !

Back from the brink!

[kalniel]

GREAT NEWS


even Russia today are saying the invasion is wrong and that Russia made a mistake. amazing !

Back from the brink!

Where's he saying that? So far he's denied there's been any Russian involvement and the troops that are there are just pro-russian militias.

[j1979]

ill get the link... 1 sec

It's not Putin, but on Russia Today channel, which is state sponsored!

[kalniel]

ill get the link... 1 sec

It's not Putin, but on Russia Today channel, which is state sponsored!

Ah sorry - for too long my mind just substitutes 'Russia' with 'Putin'

[j1979]

Ah sorry - for too long my mind just substitutes 'Russia' with 'Putin'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZolXrjGIBJs

She's either going to get the sack or it's truly the best indication yet that Putin is backing off slowly.. Hoping for option 2

[opel80uk]

I agree i was ill advised to instanly remove Russian as the state language, however

You are again misinformed and believe the Russian propaganda…..

What am I misinformed about? What have I said about language, other than the Interim Government should not have removed Russian as a regional language?

Maybe you are right. But there are protests in Istanbul already, the public don't want a Russian Crimea and they have a lot of influence their.

I think you are overstating Turkey’s influence over Russia. If they had that kind of influence, I doubt Russia would be arming the Syrians, never mind controlling de facto a region that Russia considers historically part of her territory.

[Saracen]

....

Maybe you are right. But there are protests in Istanbul already, the public don't want a Russian Crimea and they have a lot of influence their.

Maybe so, but there's a very large gap between public street protests and government taking military action. In this case, I suspect a gap large enough you could fit Jupiter into it, then pour in the Pacific ocean, and still have space for a dwarf star or two.

I might be induced to join a street protest against Putin's move on Crimea myself, if I thought it had the slightest chance of making any difference, but military action? I don't see it as a viable option, I'm afraid.

[j1979]

What am I misinformed about? What have I said about language, other than the Interim Government should not have removed Russian as a regional language?

Misinformed about the protestors on the maidan and Yanukovych's party being a party of Democracy. It's not, a party of democracy, does not buy votes, and does not pay thugs to intimidate the population.

Can you explain how a Pro-Russian language party can get into power twice when the country has a minority Russian language population? it's oligarch sponsored and sad for the Ukrainian people. They take the £15 and vote for whoever is richest / most corrupt.

The people on the maidan want this to change regardless of language.

I think you are overstating Turkey’s influence over Russia. If they had that kind of influence, I doubt Russia would be arming the Syrians, never mind controlling de facto a region that Russia considers historically part of her territory.

Again maybe your right, I don't know what will happen there. It seems pointless now discussing it if Putin is indeed de-escallating the situation and backing off. Luckily we may never need to know the answer

Maybe so, but there's a very large gap between public street protests and government taking military action. In this case, I suspect a gap large enough you could fit Jupiter into it, then pour in the Pacific ocean, and still have space for a dwarf star or two.

I might be induced to join a street protest against Putin's move on Crimea myself, if I thought it had the slightest chance of making any difference, but military action? I don't see it as a viable option, I'm afraid.

Im talking about an all out war scenario with Ukraine and Russia. I am presuming Turkey won't just sit there while Turkish citizens in Yevpatoriya are under threat.. There are a lot of Turks living there. Maybe i'm wrong and they will do nothing!

[opel80uk]

Misinformed about the protestors on the maidan and Yanukovych's party being a party of Democracy. It's not, a party of democracy, does not buy votes, and does not pay thugs to intimidate the population.

I never, once, said that it was a party of Democracy. I said it was a party that had won, according to international observers, a fair, democratic election. And all I said about the protestors was that there is a section of them who belong to far right extremist groups. That there are some of those extremists now in the Interim Government supports that assertion.

Can you explain how a Pro-Russian language party can get into power twice when the country has a minority Russian language population? it's oligarch sponsored and sad for the Ukrainian people. They take the £15 and vote for whoever is richest / most corrupt.

The international observers of the election say that there was no evidence that what you claimed happened. As a sceptic, I doubt whether one side has the monopoly on propaganda.

The people on the maidan want this to change regardless of language.

Well, they got the change, but you can’t expect to kick the hornets nest, and then have others send their military in to bail them out. It’s just not going to happen. It never happened in Georgia, it’s not happened in Syria, and it won’t happen in Ukraine.

Again maybe your right, I don't know what will happen there. It seems pointless now discussing it if Putin is indeed de-escallating the situation and backing off. Luckily we may never need to know the answer

According to the BBC, Russia have blockaded the Kerch Strait. I hope I am wrong, but I fear your optimism is misplaced, for the moment at least.

[HalloweenJack]

Putin thinks we are really retarded...

These are 'not' the droid you are looking for... He means, there aren't Russian, even if the whole difference between a Russian soldier and this one is a missing name and country tag :


Then after Putin says those aren't Russian soldiers, but local militia, we see this showing up :


Yeah, sure Mr. Putin, we are retarded. And i guess this car with Russian army licence plates isn't Russian at all, it belongs to those nice friendly non-soldier chaps from Ukraine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle...ates_of_Russia

The Armed Forces have white characters on a black background and the format is NNNN LL for vehicles and LL NNNN for trailers

[j1979]

I never, once, said that it was a party of Democracy. I said it was a party that had won, according to international observers, a fair, democratic election. And all I said about the protestors was that there is a section of them who belong to far right extremist groups. That there are some of those extremists now in the Interim Government supports that assertion.

The international observers of the election say that there was no evidence that what you claimed happened. As a sceptic, I doubt whether one side has the monopoly on propaganda.

Well, they got the change, but you can’t expect to kick the hornets nest, and then have others send their military in to bail them out. It’s just not going to happen. It never happened in Georgia, it’s not happened in Syria, and it won’t happen in Ukraine.

According to the BBC, Russia have blockaded the Kerch Strait. I hope I am wrong, but I fear your optimism is misplaced, for the moment at least.

I hope your option changes. I wrote a long reply to this that I just deleted, but at the end I realised you will just dismiss it. So ill just say fair elections in Ukraine have never happened.

Of course there are right wing elements in the maidan / Kiev side. 100% guaranteed, just google Dimitri Yarush. Nationalism is a factor, but that inevitable. The nationalism one the other side is worse and is being stirred in my opinion.

I have seen flags of all nations on the maidan (including Russia), it's inclusive, they're were all welcome. You're welcome, i'm welcome, anyone is welcome. I can't say that about the other side.

It's like one bbc corespondent said, Putin will push and only when he finds steel he will stop. It may have been optimism, I hope not.

[csgohan4]

There needs to be a multilateral threat for a declaration of war on Russia.

here's why

Ukraine agreed to give up it's nuclear deterrent in exchange for the agreement that it's boarders would be maintained. This was singed by UK, USA and Russia, in 1994 as part of the Budapest memorandum.

Now what that all 3 counties have broken this agreement, they have no validity in asking other states to give up their nuclear weapons or stop perusing a nuclear program.

After reading all 10 pages, it seems you are advocating war on Russia because they have occupied South Ukraine.

I also note the repercussions this will have on the whole world.

What will be the cost of doing nothing and using diplomatic means as a means of dialogue?

Rather than all guns blazing, shoot and ask questions later.

Wouldn't your family be in more danger if an all out war was instigated by the west? There would be martial law and civilian casualties.

I can understand Russia point of view, baring in mind Crimea was gifted to Ukraine and contains a majority Russian speaking population.

I also understand the corruption of the previous Ukraine government with policitcal interference from both Russia and west.

However what do you want to achieve by being a warmonger ? In a war no one wins, even more so In nuclear era.

Worse case scenario Crimea becomes part of Russia, compared to Crimea is decimated by world war 3, Euorpe under nuclear fall out and economy crashing world wide.

Before you reach for you gun, think about the consequences for both sides, World Wars are nasty and never have a happy ending.

Europe Will not go to war with Russia, it can't afford too, Gazprom just shuts off the gas and that will disadvantage our economies and energy. Despite only being one third, it is still significant. Not to mention the foreign business interests they have in Russia. Banks are also exposed to risk with them lending to Russia, it is very complicated and not black and white.

Putin is not stupid enough to realise an all out war against the world will not end well for his Mother Russia either.

It might not seem palatable to give Crimea to Russia but it may be the only option to avoid a blood shed nuclear or on the ground.

[j1979]

After reading all 10 pages, it seems you are advocating war on Russia because they have occupied South Ukraine.

The thread moves pretty quick. as does Putin.

At the moment, don't advocate war but if Ukraine is attacked, unprovoked on it's own soil. then yes we should (threaten) go to war with Russia, as we promised to protect Ukraine in exchange for them giving up their nuclear weapons. Russia likely would not dream of invading Ukraine should the still have the weapons. What is the point of offering protection and then denying this when needed. A man is his word, a country should be too.

At the time I said we should (threaten) to declare war there were reports on the BBC of Russia giving Ukraine a 5am deadline to surrender, or face an all out assault.

[csgohan4]

The thread moves pretty quick. as does Putin.

At the moment, don't advocate war but if Ukraine is attacked, unprovoked on it's own soil. then yes we should go to war with Russia, as we promised to protect Ukraine in exchange for them giving up their nuclear weapons. Russia likely would not dream of invading Ukraine should the still have the weapons. What is the point of offering protection and then denying this when needed. A man is his word, a country should be too.

At the time I said we should declare war there were reports on the BBC of Russia giving Ukraine a 5am deadline to surrender, or face an all out assault.

There wouldn't be a reason to Invade the rest of Ukraine as you know from statements it would only be a last resort.

The 3am deadline whether true or not Putin was calling Ukraine's bluff to strike first so he would have a reason to take Ukraine as well.

Showing restraint in these times is also pertinent. If Russia took the first shot and invaded the rest of Ukraine where there are less 'Russian interests' he risks alienating his own people.

I am not surprised about the tactics of Russia bussing in people for pro Russian protests, it's common practice to discredit your opponents first through propaganda and then move in.

What ever happens There will not be a world war, perhaps a civil war between Ukrainians and hard core Crimeans.

But advocating a fire first policy because of your own interests will also have devastating consequences outweighing any benefit gained.

What is the worst that can happen if Crimea joins Russia? It's citizens being fed Russian TV? Of course not forgetting support to Syria. But once he has finished his other naval base that will no longer be needed.