Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

[j1979]

UPDATE : THE BLOG :-

http://ukrainestory.com
The blog should be up by Sunday 4th.


I suggested that this was a possibilty before Christmas with the Ukraine / Russia / EU situation.

http://forums.hexus.net/question-tim...ights-ww3.html

I was laughed at and got the reaction "Oh dear,you must have not taken some meds. You seem paranoid and angry"

Angry yes! paranoid maybe, but unfortunately there was some truth in what I wrote and the dangers of Russia with Putin at the helm. I love Russia, but increasingly it's over nationalistic, homophobic and this behavior is encouraged by Putin.

There are some parallels with the current situation and both world wars. the most striking being..

1. WWI. Russia deemed that they could not afford to see Sarajevo humiliated by the Germans - Now Russia seems to be suggesting that they can't afford to see Russian speaking Ukrainians take a back seat politically and they see this as US/EU sponsored humiliation.

2. Economy. WWII the Germans had a terrible economy, a bad economy with a bad leader looks outwards. Russia's economy is heavily based on natural resources, but thats it. Read what you like but, the boom times are well and truly over and although not in terrible shape, they aren't as rolling in it as they like to perceive, and the wealth gap in Russia is huge.

3. A Psychopathic leader with an Ego. over 160 Journalist have been murdered in Russia since Putin took over, lucky journalists get sent to court. another 200 have be "accidentally" killed in crossfire while reporting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...lled_in_Russia

4. Strained relations. the Russian / West relationship has been strained in recent years. Syria , Iran and smaller fall outs litvinenko etc.

5. Political Insults. There were a fair few swipes from Germany and vice versa, before the declaration of war finally happened.
Putins body language to EU and US leaders is terrible, he always seems to be uptight at these meetings. All my Russian friends are saying that the Olympic ring mistake at Sochi, was on purpose... the ring that didn't open is supposed to represent America according to friends on vk.com

6. censorship, propaganda, and bending spines. Russia passed a new law only yesterday. They can now ban any website without reason. State TV is full of propaganda, if you want a watered down version turn to Russia today on freeview.

7. Didn't Hitler stage the Olympics just before WWII?

[TheAnimus]

7. Didn't Hitler stage the Olympics just before WWII?

Not sure if serious or not...

The Putin regime is a bit nutty to us outside, many of my Russian friends (some I used to work with) think that a big problem is democracy giving the ignorant a vote. However what will they do? Will they grab all the land from Ukraine to Kaliningrad? Unlikely. More likely he will be interested in preserving a regime that affords him power and wealth for his backers.

I doubt they will do more than switch off Ukraines energy supplies. Quite frankly, they don't need to do that much more.

I think it is far more likely we will have a civil type war, which thankfully will stop with just conventional weaponry. The global inequality of life, the fact people have their (often religious) views they want to hoist on others etc. Terrorist style attacks, the hot spots around the middle east show quite simply how internal issues just can't be simply stopped with force.

As mentioned, China claiming land is more likely to create conflict, I suppose luckily with the exception of Japan, none are remotely able to fight back. I doubt that the US would want to come to Japans rescue in entirely a military manner, they wouldn't gain much from it.

[munchie]

Not sure if serious or not...
As mentioned, China claiming land is more likely to create conflict, I suppose luckily with the exception of Japan, none are remotely able to fight back.

that would depend on how you look at it, doesn't it. they are claiming someone else's land or someone else occupying their land. (or vice versa)
the "trouble" as it were with the chinese claims, is that they kept relatively quiet about things when they were "weak", at least with regards to japan.


ww2 wasn't fought because the nazis were evil. it was because they invaded others. them killing jews wasn't really a factor. was it even used as a stick to beat the germans with until after the war? much like america didn't go to war against japan for using biological/chemical warfare in china. they fought after pearl harbour.
or for that matter, the allies joined the soviets because they can soak up the german army, not because they are any less evil than the nazis.

just as ww1 wasn't fought between democracies of france/britain and autocracy of germany. it was democratic france siding with autocratic russia against autocratic germany which was siding with autocratic austro-hungary against the trouble making serbia where some nut just went and killed the heir of austro-hungary. the brits tagged along with their french chums against germany. despite what the propaganda claimed, ideology or system of government has nothing to do with it. does anyone really think it wouldn't have happened if germany was a democracy (that is, if everything else remains the same - ties/sympathy with austria, frustrated ambition of being late to the colonial game, etc)

[Galant]

It is interesting (for want of a better word), that the worst aspects we perceive in WW2 appear not to be the aspects of great motivation at the time - holocaust, sick eugenics etc. Part of that might of been indifference to anti-semitism or the philosophy of eugenics (or support of those things), the larger part might have been the lack of awareness of what was going on.

That would suggest that the strongest motivations for going to war are ones of self-preservation on a national or even personal level, or maybe acting to defend the concept of sovereign nations right to exist (ie. not be invaded).

Having said that, the fall out from WW2 brought to light many atrocities which are now (and I think rightly so) considered the worst acts and crimes, and that were it all known before hand, would/should have been the greatest motivating factor. At least, it seems to feel that way. Considering that, how have the revelations of the Nazi atrocities changed or developed our thinking in terms of motivations/reasons for going to war, and what moral imperative does it put upon us, if any? Putting it more simply, does the now known fact of the holocaust now require us to act in order to stop any further such atrocities?

[j1979]

Not sure if serious or not...

The Putin regime is a bit nutty to us outside, many of my Russian friends (some I used to work with) think that a big problem is democracy giving the ignorant a vote. However what will they do? Will they grab all the land from Ukraine to Kaliningrad? Unlikely. More likely he will be interested in preserving a regime that affords him power and wealth for his backers.

I doubt they will do more than switch off Ukraines energy supplies. Quite frankly, they don't need to do that much more.

I think it is far more likely we will have a civil type war, which thankfully will stop with just conventional weaponry. The global inequality of life, the fact people have their (often religious) views they want to hoist on others etc. Terrorist style attacks, the hot spots around the middle east show quite simply how internal issues just can't be simply stopped with force.

As mentioned, China claiming land is more likely to create conflict, I suppose luckily with the exception of Japan, none are remotely able to fight back. I doubt that the US would want to come to Japans rescue in entirely a military manner, they wouldn't gain much from it.

You seem to know what your talking about. Democracy and Russia in the same sentence. Democracy in Russia is nothing more than a smokescreen, but those that pointed this out in the Russian press are dead.

The situation in Russian speaking parts of Ukraine, is being provoked by the Kremlin at every opportunity.

having said that, now that the US and EU are preoccupied with Ukraine / Syria, I see that that other great democracy of North Korea is stirring old tensions and firing missiles.

[KimJongWill]

900 Russian tanks on the border of Ukraine. Violence is becoming more and more the easy route to making people comply.

[j1979]

so it looks like Crimea will become Russian.

The referendum has been brought forward to March 30th.

Here's what will happen. Putins Puppet now installed as the new Crimean leader will spread the Russian nationalism, The referendum will take place in March, controlled, counted and verified by Russian officials. The vote result will be doctored in some way, I highly doubt it will be independently verified in a reliable way. Russia will then annex Crimea.

3 counties signed the agreement to uphold Ukraine's border. UK US and Russia. I doubt any of them will stick to their deal. Seems Obama is limp and can't afford a new war especially all out war against Russia. This is the EU's first serious problem to it's security. If they allow Russia to simply take Crimea, what then?

Of my in-laws in Sevastopol, It's about a 50% 50% split to join Russia, but they are all ethnic Russian's / Belorussians, I wonder if, Crimea would vote to join Russia anyway, should it be a fair vote. Expect reports of intimidation, low turn outs, in Muslim areas that are strongly apposed to Russian rule (for example Bakhchisaray), and cash for votes in all other areas of Crimea.

People have been paid for votes regularly throughout Russia and Ukraine in the past, this will be a big part of any referendum.

Expect the 'declared' vote to be in the 60% - 70% mark to join Russia. But the actual vote would be much lower in the 40% - 50%

this video of the changing map of Europe since 1000AD tells a story in itself. Russian people are nice people, their leaders are not.
http://www.wimp.com/presentday/


My wife wants to speak out, but people are scared. Imagine, speaking out and then your country becomes Russian, you can and probably will go missing. Like the 1000's of other so called political prisoners.

I ask everyone to do their bit to help. If it says made in Russia, don't buy it!

[The Hand]

On the Ukraine/Crimea situation - "Russia has just approved troops in Ukraine" (BBC about 4pm today):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26400035

[TheAnimus]

Aren't they allowed something like 25,000 in their bases there anyway?

Ukraine is on the edge of a civil war. There are many who appreciate an "older style" strength, these are the pro Putin types that are generally found in the Crimea.

Then you have the other kind that remember Holodomor, and do not prefer this older style of strength.

Just in the same way we've got a bunch of whiny types, saying "oh we've never had it so bad in the UK bo ho" they've got a bunch of them in Crimea.

Just like ours want to vote in Labour, theirs want Putin.

[j1979]

Aren't they allowed something like 25,000 in their bases there anyway?

Ukraine is on the edge of a civil war. There are many who appreciate an "older style" strength, these are the pro Putin types that are generally found in the Crimea.

Then you have the other kind that remember Holodomor, and do not prefer this older style of strength.

Just in the same way we've got a bunch of whiny types, saying "oh we've never had it so bad in the UK bo ho" they've got a bunch of them in Crimea.

Just like ours want to vote in Labour, theirs want Putin.

No... Russia has to get Ukrainian Government permission to move troops between bases. As Russia has not recognised the current Ukrainian interim government then they can claim they can move troops freely.


If it happens it won't be civil. Because many on both sides don't want to fight and also don't want to be part of Russia. Russia have cut all landline telephones in Crimea, took over the TV station and no doubt will begin to monitor and possibly censor the internet. Ukrainian internet is not as archaic as ours in the UK and not ADSL so cutting the phone lines does not effect the internet.

Here are photos from Balaklava bay taken a few hours ago ..(the main road to Sevastopol). I was here in June








not all russian speakers in Ukraine support this.. in fact I would say most have very large concerns..

this is a photo from my wifes friend in Sevastopol (ethnic Russian).... It means Crimea is Ukrainian !

[peterb]

(I have broken this out into a separate thread, given the importance, and to avoid mixing two topics)

[TheAnimus]

No... Russia has to get Ukrainian Government permission to move troops between bases. As Russia has not recognised the current Ukrainian interim government then they can claim they can move troops freely.

Ah, I'll be honest I don't know the details, but even my anti-putin friends think this is been over hyped a bit.

If it happens it won't be civil. Because many on both sides don't want to fight and also don't want to be part of Russia. Russia have cut all landline telephones in Crimea, took over the TV station and no doubt will begin to monitor and possibly censor the internet. Ukrainian internet is not as archaic as ours in the UK and not ADSL so cutting the phone lines does not effect the internet.

Civil war is never civil! The worst atrocities during WW2 one could argue were civil ones.

Cutting communications... It is a very good way of stopping civil disobedience.

Think if you changed the name Russia, to World Police. Having a bunch of those troops in the area would be welcomed.

The problem is some welcome the Putins, they really do. But there are also elements that are incredibly unhappy with the results of recent protests. It's a quagmire. Democracy isn't simple.

We don't really have democracy in the UK. The West Lothian problem, the boundaries for the constituencies. It is hard to decide when you ignore the population densities and the people overall. For instance, the Scottish referendum, if that was voted on by everyone in the UK, one could suggest that 10% of the population is suffering because 90% of the population do not live in Scotland.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

NVM,I didn't realise the balance of power here.

The Russkies are going to start WW3,while the pacificist west is unfairly getting egged on.

Screw them!

[g8ina]

Steady guys, steady !!

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Nvm.

[HalloweenJack]

hmmm I see the cold war battle plan Is still in effect for the Russian army - they can go from barracks to full war footing in 24 hours , and each unit carries enough supplies for 3 days total war without resupply.

you can bet Ukraine is pulling its troops back to base and getting them in the field - they have something like 1300 tanks (T-62UD and there own T-80). The UK et all don't have the armoured formations of the 80`s anymore , and as said elsewhere - that capability takes years to rebuild.