Hexus OFFICIAL 2015 General Election results thread

[Saracen]

BBC exit poll figures, based on a sample of 22,000 voters, is

Con 316 (+9)
Lab 239 (-19)
LD 10 (-47)
SNP 58 (+52)
UKIP (+2)
Plaid 2 (+1)
DUP 8 (??)
Green 2 (+1)
Other 11

There is, of course, a very big, indeed HUGE caveat .... it's just a poll. It could be, and indeed probably is, wrong. In which case, by how much and in what way, is critical to the government we end up with.

[kalniel]

If this exit poll is right I will publicly eat my hat.

Followed by:

Do you have a hat here?

I'll get one

[kalniel]

Oh dear, Campbell's just offered to eat his kilt. This could get messy.

Gove is just being smug.

[Biscuit]

I strolled up in swimming shorts and a brightly coloured shirt (not my normal attire) so that the candidates and staff deliberately avoided spending too much time looking at me, nevermind asking me who I voted for... worked pretty well.

[Galant]

Good old Google (yes I know, that phrase is anathema to some) - just search for "Election 2015" and it'll give a nice quick, simple, view of the results.

(Also works great for sports league fixtures and scores, but that's a different topic!)

[Saracen]

Indeed. Though this thread is for comment, if anyone else is watching news as it comes in.

For instance, my read so far is :-

1) Still early days

2) Exit poll is, so far, pretty much right on the money

3) LibDems are havinf a torrid, truly horrible night, with a growing list of list deposits, and a typical 13-14% drop in their vote, pretty much consistently.

4) UKIP are doing, outside of London anyway, much the reverse of the LDs, with around 12-13% (sometimes more, up to 20% gain in vote BUT, so far anyway, without gaining seats).

5) Labour are, so far, not having a good time. No lost seats yet, but dropping vote share, and pretty consistently not getting the swing they need to gain. For instance, Nuneaton was a key Tory/Labour marginal, where Labour were happy with their local capaign efforts and needed jyst 2.3% swing Con-> Lab, and instead, their vote dropped by 2%, and we saw a 3% swing Lab->Con, which is exactly the wrong direction.

6) A viable Tory standalone minirity government is looking very plausible.

7) Even a 10pm when polls closed, an overall Tory majority was, according to the pollsters, not to be excluded as impossible, though very unlikely. But after Nuneaton, if that trend continues in key marginals, an overall Tory majority as a possibility is a scenario we must take seriously, if still unlikely.

8) It's still early days. Pretty much all data supports these trends so far.


Oh, and if the SNP get, as predicted, 50+ seats, even 58-ish, then we risk an entirely nationalist Scotland, and a Tory minority, or even majority, Westminster, which is an explosive combination. Another exit referendum might be on the cards sooner rather than later.

[Saracen]

So, Labour campaign boss and Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander loses his seat to a 20 year old SNP student, Marie Black .... youngest MP since 1667.

Ouch, that's gotta hurt.

[Gerrard]

Looking at the BBC's At A Glance results, there are a couple of comments to make at this time. I am away with work, so haven't been watching any TV about it (lucky me!).

1. 65% turn out, which I believe is pretty good for a general election?
2. Nearly 3mil votes for UKIP and 1 seat; 2mil votes for SNP and 55 seats. I know this is brought up each election and I am only going by the figures I am seeing without looking into it too deep, but still... Of course, you could make an argument for or against the system in this case!

[peterb]

I sat up until 11:30 until the interview with Ed Balls, which persuaded me to turn off and go to bed.

Very surprised by the results so far, particularly some of the Labour losses. If The Conservatives are able to gain an overall majority, which is still questionable (at 7am) it will not be a straightforward task for David Cameron to govern effectively.

[deejayburnout]

SNP done good

[Repressor]

I can't believe one of the first things Theresa May said she'd like to do with the Conservative majority is start with the Communications Data stuff again.

[peterb]

SNP done good

Yes, pity they didn't do as well in the referendum.

I feel slightly (but only slightly) sorry for Ed z,ill and. He gambled on his refusal to enter a coalition with the SNP to drive wavering labour support back to labour, but it seems to have had the reverse effect. But it seems as if the SNP will effectively be a single issue party, more power to the devolved Parliament, and be prepared to trample over the the rest of the United Kingdom to do that.

[kalniel]

Yes, pity they didn't do as well in the referendum.

I feel slightly (but only slightly) sorry for Ed z,ill and. He gambled on his refusal to enter a coalition with the SNP to drive wavering labour support back to labour, but it seems to have had the reverse effect. But it seems as if the SNP will effectively be a single issue party, more power to the devolved Parliament, and be prepared to trample over the the rest of the United Kingdom to do that.

Now might be the point at which the rest of the UK get to have a say on whether they want to kick scotland out (I know, it's not allowed to work in that direction)

[Stringent]

Shame on you Saracen not posting in rank order! /OCD

[Jowsey]

Nearly 3.49mil votes for UKIP and 1 seat; 1.45mil votes for SNP and 55 seats.

I can already hear the arguments I'm about to hear. Sadly, I don't think I can over disagree with some of them. There does seem to be a disparity between the votes and the seats. Guess that's what a lot of second places looks like...

[Biscuit]

I find the number of UKIP votes deeply concerning. I really thought people had more intelligence than that.