So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

[Saracen]

Well, after 5 years of can-kicking, are Greece and the EU finally getting close to crunch point? Or will another can-kicking fudge be found?

Either way, it's getting real close to disaster.

So, referendum tomorrow .... what do you think will happen? Yes or no? And when the result's known, what then, such as, will banks open Tuesday AM? And if so, using what, for money?

Dust off your crystal balls, and have a punt.

[kalniel]

Greece votes yes. EU point out that the deal they're voting on wasn't on the table anyway, but instead offer a more generous bailout agreement having achieved their objective of refusing to be pushed around by game theory.

[GuidoLS]

<evil me> Greece votes no, leaves the Euro AND the EU, and civil war breaks out (again)</evil>
<realistic me> Greece votes yes, government gets kicked to the curb, more Euro/EU friendly government gets voted in, bailout extended, everyone sings kumbayah, world is a happy place until next crisis </realistic>

[Andy3536]

Greece and the EU will consciously uncouple.
Greece after a tough year will be back to being Europes top holiday destination and be doing rather well. Germany, saddled with the majority of the Greek debt that wasn't paid back goes into recession.

[anacdahudee]

I think the Greek people will support their government and then we will have to see what EU leaders and the ECB say. Greece is already half on the euro exit by implementing capital controls, which is against the rules. I'd also be interested to see if Greece not only falls out of the Euro but the EU itself as well. If it does it will throw up some serious questions and lay the ground for a mucher clearer referendum debate in the UK.

[The Hand]

The last poll I saw, shows the yes and no votes neck a neck and 9% undecided. I'm thinking a Yes vote by a narrow margin as the undecided lot begin to get "the fear" and vote accordingly.. and more can-kicking fudge cake will ensue..

If No wins there could be serious trouble in the markets, since there are other financial woes arising such as the Chinese stock market turmoil since June, plus the 7-11 year business cycle coming to an end.. the latter being the reason why the UK government are to sell off Lloyds stock now and not later.

[peterb]

Greece will vote yes, they will gain more funds to bolster their already unsustainable debt, which will defer the crunch for a further few months.

The Greeks will continue to press for 'debt relief' ie, write off the loans so they become a gift or grant, which will annoy the rest of the EU.

But the whole thing is more like an ausfaht.

[TooNice]

Time to get change my Euro? I don't have a lot of it - leftovers from my holiday a few years ago - but I note that it has already dropped quite a bit in the past week.

[peterb]

Time to get change my Euro? I don't have a lot of it - leftovers from my holiday a few years ago - but I note that it has already dropped quite a bit in the past week.

Or perhaps buy if you are thinking of taking a holiday in Europe this year.

[Zak33]

Greek public all claim they vote to leave when talking to each other but most vote,to stay

Germans realise England women's team beat their national side and retreat to beer haus for a steine

Greeks pull another few,bank notes out from cardboard box hidden in shed...

Life moves on while newspapers try to find excuse to scare voters from different direction

[Lucio]

I'm leaning towards a Yes vote being returned, because it's the older generation who have everything to lose who desperately want to hang onto whatever they have. However, I fully expect a serious amount of rioting, and sadly likely loss of life, and possibly even the collapse of the government.


The whole situation really does expose the whole smokes and mirrors nature of economics, how all the "money" being discussed really is just a fictious construct based on a set of ever increasingly poor guesses of worth.

Ultimately, those who have invested in Greece need to accept that the money is not there, their guesses were wrong. All repayments should be stopped and the debt instead held against future prosperity to give the Greeks a couple of decades to recover. Knowing what little I do about finance, those debt options will likely be sold and resold anyway to keep things moving

[BobF64]

Ultimately, those who have invested in Greece need to accept that the money is not there, their guesses were wrong. All repayments should be stopped and the debt instead held against future prosperity to give the Greeks a couple of decades to recover.

Which would be a good approach, except that creditors of huge sums want immediate evidence that their loans will be repaid sooner rather than never.

Its what you get when you decide things by committee and models, statistical not bikini-clad.

At least if Greece does collapse, the UK can offer them 10 drachma for the Elgin marbles.

[peterb]

The old adage springs to mind..

"Owe the bank £100, it's your problem. Owe them £100,000,000 and it becomes their problem".

[Top_gun]

Damn, if they do. Damm, if they don't.

The people of Greece has an incredibly difficult decision to make. If the banks were responsible lenders in the first place then there wouldn't be a problem.

[The Hand]

"The end cometh":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33403665

I'm surprised at the sizable lead the NO vote has... I thought it would be closer.

[BobF64]

Its a huge gamble the Greek government is making, that its creditors wont let it fall and that they can negotiate from a position of "strength".

If they are wrong, the "offers" could be even more humiliating than the one they reject.