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Thread: Prime Minister Corbyn???

  1. #17
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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Quote Originally Posted by HalloweenJack View Post
    well new labour are right of centre nowadays ; are we seeing the resurgence of more extremist politics? maybe when the EU vote comes up we will , but if all parties are just shades of each other , borrowing policies as they see fit = it doesn't matter then what colour rosette they wear does it.

    Labour want a mast top pin its credentials to , and a left wing candidate (ala George Galloway) , who btw Corbyn reminds me of - could be 1 way to rally the votes - .


    Vote Norsefire!! oh wait....
    This is where it gets tricky. Where's the centre?

    Do you mean rignt of 1970's centre? I'd agree.

    Or right of 2015 centre? I don't agree.

    My thesis, and I think it's hard to argue with, is that the centre has moved. To the right. Or, perhaps, even that "centre" is now measured in a 3D political space, whereas the 60s/70s centre was on a much more linear political spectrum. I think it's self-evident that New Labour was, in linear terms, certainly to the right of old Labour. And that's why it was both electable, and elected. New Labour moved to where the electorate were.

    Which is why I think it's hard to argue with the notion that the "centre" has moved, because I'd define the centre as related to the location of the electorate. I see the electorate as being a normal distribution curve, in statistical terms. A bell curve. If that curve shifts right, then to get elected, a left political party has to shift right with it, or it finds itself on the slope of the curve and if it gets just a little too far down that slope, it's unelectable no matter how well-intentioned, honest and sincere it is.

    And that, in my view is both Corbyn's problem and Labour's dilemma. Among a large percentage of the party, New Labour is almost a dirty word(s), but New Labour is much closer to the top of the bell than old Labour, let alone a Bennite Corbyn. Labour's dilemma is how to be where, by and large, their hearts want to be when tbey know full well it isn't where the floating voters that decide elections are.

    Blair certainly got that. For all his faults, and later mistakes, he was the ultimate pragmatist. By definition, if floating voters float, they are somewhat sympathetic with both the right of Labour and the left of Conservative. If they weren't, they wouldn't be able to float. They represent the exact centre, +/- about 3-4%, of that bell curve.

    The trick to winning a modern UK general election is to be close enough to that point to attract those floaters without being so far that you lose too many of your base to other parties, be it Green or UKIP, respectively. Though, in truth, neither of those fit perfectly into old-fashioned left/right definitions. They're more 3D than that.

    IMHO, the trick Labour needs to pull off is to follow essentially New Labour policy positioning, WITHOUT identifying with Blair (or Brown), especially as regards Iraq, etc, or the worst aspects of ill-conceived Brownite spending and off balance sheet financial acrobatics. They need to shake off the Blair/Brown ghosts, just as the Tories had to shake of the Thatcher ghost. In both cases, excessive periods in power led to an arrogance of attitude that was personality-driven. In both cases, that arrogance led to policy disasters be it poll tax, or Iraq and the impact of the financial crunch.

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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Quote Originally Posted by peterb View Post
    It did! Got them 13 or so years in power!
    Tony Blair ultimately lost more votes for Labour than any other human in recent history. It was also the beginning of the slippery slope that saw them wiped out in Scotland, and now has them in the position of not actually knowing what they stand for. Corbyn at least can answer simple questions when asked (a known stumbling block for many politicians), and appears able to do the job that's required of him, rather than being part of The Abstention Party.

    There is no use in politics for an opposition that collectively abstains from damn near everything. Andy Burnham needs a reminder than actions do indeed speak louder than words.

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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Saracen

    how about this picture:


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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Quote Originally Posted by HalloweenJack View Post
    Saracen

    how about this picture:

    More purple please!
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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Quote Originally Posted by Saracen View Post
    This is where it gets tricky. Where's the centre?

    Do you mean rignt of 1970's centre? I'd agree.

    Or right of 2015 centre? I don't agree.

    My thesis, and I think it's hard to argue with, is that the centre has moved. To the right. Or, perhaps, even that "centre" is now measured in a 3D political space, whereas the 60s/70s centre was on a much more linear political spectrum. I think it's self-evident that New Labour was, in linear terms, certainly to the right of old Labour. And that's why it was both electable, and elected. New Labour moved to where the electorate were.

    Which is why I think it's hard to argue with the notion that the "centre" has moved, because I'd define the centre as related to the location of the electorate. I see the electorate as being a normal distribution curve, in statistical terms. A bell curve. If that curve shifts right, then to get elected, a left political party has to shift right with it, or it finds itself on the slope of the curve and if it gets just a little too far down that slope, it's unelectable no matter how well-intentioned, honest and sincere it is.

    And that, in my view is both Corbyn's problem and Labour's dilemma. Among a large percentage of the party, New Labour is almost a dirty word(s), but New Labour is much closer to the top of the bell than old Labour, let alone a Bennite Corbyn. Labour's dilemma is how to be where, by and large, their hearts want to be when tbey know full well it isn't where the floating voters that decide elections are.

    Blair certainly got that. For all his faults, and later mistakes, he was the ultimate pragmatist. By definition, if floating voters float, they are somewhat sympathetic with both the right of Labour and the left of Conservative. If they weren't, they wouldn't be able to float. They represent the exact centre, +/- about 3-4%, of that bell curve.

    The trick to winning a modern UK general election is to be close enough to that point to attract those floaters without being so far that you lose too many of your base to other parties, be it Green or UKIP, respectively. Though, in truth, neither of those fit perfectly into old-fashioned left/right definitions. They're more 3D than that.

    IMHO, the trick Labour needs to pull off is to follow essentially New Labour policy positioning, WITHOUT identifying with Blair (or Brown), especially as regards Iraq, etc, or the worst aspects of ill-conceived Brownite spending and off balance sheet financial acrobatics. They need to shake off the Blair/Brown ghosts, just as the Tories had to shake of the Thatcher ghost. In both cases, excessive periods in power led to an arrogance of attitude that was personality-driven. In both cases, that arrogance led to policy disasters be it poll tax, or Iraq and the impact of the financial crunch.
    Wouldn't you say current the Conservative party is to the left vs. older Conservative parties?
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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Quote Originally Posted by Galant View Post
    Wouldn't you say current the Conservative party is to the left vs. older Conservative parties?
    This is largely why the "left" vs "right" thing is pointless.

    Current Tories are socially much more liberal, eg things like gay marriage.

    They're also economically further "right".

    A 1-dimensional "left" vs "right" is meaningless

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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Quote Originally Posted by directhex View Post
    What is the point in a second Tory party? We already have a Tory party.

    I did have to laugh at that. But this rings very true.
    The problem we have is that Labour and the Torys are too close, and due to the financial crisis/Iraq war etc Labour are seen as a rather incompetant version of Tory light.
    This will not get them elected and doesn't give the voters a real choice.
    I would really like to see him get in as leader, i listened to him on the radio today and he does come accross quite well.
    If we get someone with a strong sence of purpose and a clear vision at least we will get a real alternative rather than 2 variations of a theme. None of the others have the character to be able to compete with Boris at the next election anyway, if they want to stand any chance of winning they need to take a bit of a gamble.

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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Quote Originally Posted by Galant View Post
    Wouldn't you say current the Conservative party is to the left vs. older Conservative parties?
    By some yardsticks. That's kinda what I meant by 3D. The world has moved on from many of the issues "older Conservative parties" faced, For instance, the cold war, and the 'Communist threat'. The extremes of the 'old' far left have pretty much been debunked by the failure, worldwide, of communism in much the same way that the Nazi's pretty much destroyed extreme right ideology.

    It's no longer about left v right, or at least, not to anything like the same extent. Things are more complex, and policy positions more nuanced than simplistic left/write caricatures.

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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Quote Originally Posted by HalloweenJack View Post
    Saracen

    how about this picture:

    That's a little better in positioning, but still pretty simplistic in my view, and I'd question the basis behind some of the positioning.

  11. #26
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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Labour are unelectable as it stands - they might as well have a strong and honest personailty at the helm to make PMQs a little more exciting, even if he's too far to the left to garner enough support really challenge in 2020.

    However, if Labour actually thought Ed Milliband was a solid choice for leader, Cooper and Burnham are both grey and uninspiring enough for the role.

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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    I really like Corbyn, and I think he stands a chance. I think he could win votes from the people who gave the lib dems such a kicking and people who voted SNP, not to mention the 15-16 million people who didn't vote. I've never voted for labour at a GE previously, I'd seriously consider it if he was Labour leader and Labour managed to hold themselves together under him.

    I'd rank the other candidates in order: Burnham, and a very very distant Kendall and Cooper.

    Cooper says nothing and Kendall frankly irritates me.
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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    if labour can stand on the sam ticket as the SNP , then they might have a chance - anti austerity AND get out of the EU

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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    But the SNP are one of the most vocal about not leaving the EU. Or am I missing your sarcasm?

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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    well look how well Greece did with facing off Germany on anti austerity......so yes , rather tongue in cheek

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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Quote Originally Posted by HalloweenJack View Post
    well look how well Greece did with facing off Germany on anti austerity......so yes , rather tongue in cheek
    It wasn't just Germany, though.

    And, of course, Greece was free to abandon austerity and spend what it liked. It just can't expect to continually borrow from other people to do it. Any loan requires two parties - one to borrow, and one to lend. Do you not think the one doing the lending is entitled to set the terms under which they're prepared to do so, at the least to try to ensure SOME chance of getting repaid at some point?

    Try borrowing from your bank, defaulting on your loan, then asking for another loan while still spending more each year than you earn, and telling them the loan is because you fancy a nice cruise. My guess is you'd find yourself sitting in the middle of the pavement outside the bank, with the manager's bootprint on your backside. And bailiffs knocking on your front door.

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    Re: Prime Minister Corbyn???

    Germany needed (and further needs more) countries in the Eurozone ,. so its own exports are affordable.

    but that's an aside

    Can actually see Corbyn doing far better than the tories want him to - as he appears to be on the same road as the SNP.

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