Unofficial Hexus Brexit Straw Poll - In, Out, Undecided?

[Saracen]

There is a lot of truth in that. The original referendum was all about a common market, the political integration was not discussed.

.....

That's not how I remember it. Or indeed what some of the 'pro' leaflets I still have said. All sorts of integration beyond the Common Market was indeed discussed, like currency union, common borders, giving up a UK passport for a EU one, EU courts, EU courts, EU army, EU-level foreign service, embassies, etc. The 'discussion' took the form of categoric, flat-out promises that it would not happen. Oh no, it was ONLY about trade, a common market, etc.

Note: For the pedantic types, in the above, where I refer to EU this or that, I'm using "EU" as a shorthand for a common-market wide provision, not the EU as we know it which, of course, didn't exist in those days.

Heath even admitted years later, Zurich about 1990 IIRC, that that had been a lie, and that when he took us in to the Common Market in the 70's, the actual objective, even then, was a Federal European superstate a la Jacques de Lors, etc. They just knew they couldn't call it that or we'd never stand for it.

[Spreadie]

I think we're far too embedded to pull out. I'm not happy about it, but voting out would be an act of self harm, IMO.

I'd be happier if the newsies would stop calling it "brexit", it's not a frikkin celebrity supercouple being reported on by Hello magazine. Journalism in general seems to be a race to the bottom these days. Have some bloody standards!

/rant

[DanceswithUnix]

I think we're far too embedded to pull out. I'm not happy about it, but voting out would be an act of self harm, IMO.

If you think Europe is harmful then surely the quicker we get out the better as that minimises the overall long term harm?

I don't believe the scare stories from either side though, and overall it smacks to me that they are just guessing and FUD stirring. The world is more resilient than that.

Thinking about it, I guess my usual optimistic self started doubting the idea of federal Europe around the time of Black Wednesday (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday for any younger readers) when being in Europe just felt like a recipe for being abused by the city in new and interesting ways.

But overall, Europe just seems to be a lot of countries that don't like each other. But then the whole process has only been happening for less than half a century, which in the grand scale of things isn't that long.

Gah, I just don't know. In 30 years time we should have a colonies on the Moon and on Mars, and none of this will seem that important.

[Spreadie]

If you think Europe is harmful then surely the quicker we get out the better as that minimises the overall long term harm?

I think you misread my post. Where did I say Europe was harmful?

[Jowsey]

And I firmly believe that as a nation we are better getting out, I feel the con's far outweigh the pro's.

So how about neither of us vote, and instead we just go fishing for the day of the referendum. Or better yet, nip over to the Himalayas now, and find a nice, deep cave to hide for for the next couple of months of interminable drivel on TV, radio, etc?

Is this an unofficial Hexus Holiday? Entry requirements are for you to bring someone who would vote the opposite of you?

[Gerrard]

There are pros and cons to each and I don't think it will actually matter in the end. Regardless of which way it goes, all you will hear is how better the situation would have been if we had voted the other way. No-one knows exactly how the future will go, and when looking back at it from the future, will still not know which would have been better (except for a major event of some kind). Much like trying to work out what it would have been like if we never joined in the first place.

[scaryjim]

Is this an unofficial Hexus Holiday? Entry requirements are for you to bring someone who would vote the opposite of you?

I'm in!





surreptitiously registers for postal vote

[Stringent]

The current poll votes are interesting! I thought it would be a lot closer.

[Jowsey]

surreptitiously registers for postal vote

I didn't even notice this before! Darn you and your sneaky size antics!

[DanceswithUnix]

I think you misread my post. Where did I say Europe was harmful?

You didn't Apologies if you took any of my comment as personal, I was just using your interesting comment as a seed for my own ramblings.

To expand on it though, you are right that there must be some cost to leaving Europe. Let's just talk in monetary terms and say it is £20B, just to pluck a number out of thin air because I am far too uninformed to give a realistic number. If you think we are £2B per year better off in Europe, then in monetary terms leaving Europe would be crazy, you would be £22B worse off after year one and never getting better. But say you believe we would be £2B better off if we leave? Well, that initial self harm does sting, but then we end up after 10 years breaking even and after that we can spend the savings on schools and hospitals.

Sadly I don't think we will ever get a value for initial harm, and if someone can point me at a reliable value for how much better or worse off we are per year in Europe then that would be great.

OTOH, some people are annoyed enough at the amount of European legislation that we rubber stamp that they want out regardless.

[The Hand]

Corbyn said in PMQ's today the pro-EU leaflet should have been more even-handed, laying out the pros and cons of being the in EU. Quite risky for him with the Blairites looking to backstab him at the drop of a hat.

[scaryjim]

... Sadly I don't think we will ever get a value for initial harm, and if someone can point me at a reliable value for how much better or worse off we are per year in Europe then that would be great. ...

Sadly true, and - as I've said before - one of my concerns about the "out" campaign: no-one can actually tell us what it will cost - in the short term or in the long term. At least we know those figures for staying in the EU (economically, at least) and can plan for them. There's a report referenced around here somewhere that put high and low guesses of long-term net impact on GDP at around +- 2%, which would be around $50b (£35b on current mid-market rates). I don't know if those GDP changes were in domestic terms or international: if they were domestic figures then the (in)stability of the pound might play a role in deepening or lessening the impact. Also the figures were commissioned by a pro-exit individual; read into that what you will but it may have coloured the assumptions they fed into the model in terms of the success of trade negotiations.

What they don't seem to take a stab at is the extent of any short-term shock, which seems reasonable - shock factors are notoriously hard to model and predict.

What I've not heard much of from either side is the position in terms of the EEA. It's perfectly feasible (and the only place I've seen this discussed reckoned it was the only likely option) that an "out" UK vote will simply place the UK alongside Iceland, Norway and Lichtenstein in the EEA, with continued access to free trade and movement within the EEA. Even as a europhile that's something I want to know more about, but no-one's really mentioned it, afaict.

[Andy3536]

The current poll votes are interesting! I thought it would be a lot closer.

Well, i didn't. It seems fairly accepted that the older you are, the more likely you are to vote out. Also, the older you are, the less likely you are to be spending your spare time browsing a tech forum. Not true across the board admittedly, but a good general rule.
All the polls that have been shown so far are very close to 50/50. So, if there's one thing that should be at the front of everyones mind, it's that whatever they think. They should get out and vote. This one could be close.

[SeriousSam]

Economically there is a cost to either being in or out and neither is entirely quantifiable. The EU is potentially either a large ball and chain holding us back or a safety net protecting us depending on perspective. Personally I lean towards the former, but to be honest I don't give a flying monkeys about the economics.

[jim]

You didn't Apologies if you took any of my comment as personal, I was just using your interesting comment as a seed for my own ramblings.

To expand on it though, you are right that there must be some cost to leaving Europe. Let's just talk in monetary terms and say it is £20B, just to pluck a number out of thin air because I am far too uninformed to give a realistic number. If you think we are £2B per year better off in Europe, then in monetary terms leaving Europe would be crazy, you would be £22B worse off after year one and never getting better. But say you believe we would be £2B better off if we leave? Well, that initial self harm does sting, but then we end up after 10 years breaking even and after that we can spend the savings on schools and hospitals.

Sadly I don't think we will ever get a value for initial harm, and if someone can point me at a reliable value for how much better or worse off we are per year in Europe then that would be great.

OTOH, some people are annoyed enough at the amount of European legislation that we rubber stamp that they want out regardless.

There is research out there that you can read. Of course, someone can always leap in and say that a source is biased, it's funded by the wrong people, etc, and of course every source is biased. But it's a starting point to frame your thinking.

One I came across earlier today, which is fairly concise, is this: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

[badass]

There are pros and cons to each and I don't think it will actually matter in the end. Regardless of which way it goes, all you will hear is how better the situation would have been if we had voted the other way. No-one knows exactly how the future will go, and when looking back at it from the future, will still not know which would have been better (except for a major event of some kind). Much like trying to work out what it would have been like if we never joined in the first place.

Agree there are pro's and cons of each. However I believe the cost of exit will not justify any potential gains when the losses are taken into account. Combined with the fact that any potential gains are just that - potential and there are benefits to staying in, I'm voting stay.