South China Sea

[Phage]

Just in case any of you have been following this. The UN has just ruled against China's territorial claims in the South China Sea

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-1...-finds/7622738

[The Hand]

A potential flash point over the coming months and years. Taiwan, the Senkaku Islands and even Okinawa Islands(Japan) are on the list for China too.

[Phage]

Marvellous. Apparently the Philipinos are seething.

[TooNice]

Looking at how much of the seas they are claiming, it's no surprise that the neighbours aren't pleased.



But I reckon that the UN can rule what it wants. China will still be building and occupying those reefs.

[Phage]

Wait till they start drilling into Brunei and Phillipine oil fields.
@tooNice - Shouldn't that read visible at low tide ?

[TooNice]

Other sources also mention high tide (it's still only two small rocks). Which is why it might technically be entitled to a 12 nautical mile territorial sea.

[Lanky123]

Well if China ignores the UN the clear precedent set is that economic sanctions follow.

Are Western governments (let alone China's neighbours in the area) in a position to do that to China? I'm no expert on the subject but I doubt that question warrants even 30 seconds of research on google...

[TooNice]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36767252

So the Permanent Court of Arbitration has no powers of enforcement. So any sanction won't be led by the UN if I am not mistaken, and I am not sure if anyone (namely the US) has the will to play the sanction/counter sanction game with China. And China has shown in the past that it's willing to sacrifice international image to protect what it considers a matter of sovereignty. So I can't say that I expect much to come out of it other than some Twitter condemnation.

[Phage]

I'm hoping that's where it stops. I think you may not be so sanguine if some built an island in the North Sea.

[TooNice]

Aside from rubbing the neighbours the wrong way though, if left unchallenged, it could make navigation an issue in a strategic location, and China may be emboldened to act on Taiwan by force knowing that the international community is all bark and no bite (see: Crimea).

[Phage]

Aside from rubbing the neighbours the wrong way though, if left unchallenged, it could make navigation an issue in a strategic location, and China may be emboldened to act on Taiwan by force knowing that the international community is all bark and no bite (see: Crimea).

Excellently put ! In fact I have stolen your phrasing....

[TooNice]

Unsurprisingly, China rejected the decision, and threatens to set up an air defense zone.

There is an important twist that I missed. Taiwan is making the same claims as China! While most of the countries have an opinion of the verdict, this is a rare instance where Taiwan lines up with China, condemning the verdict/.

I can't help but think that it's a strategic error, and I am surprised that the Taiwanese government is taking that stance. AFAIK, Taiwan has, for some time now, given up on "taking back" China. The majority are fine with the status quo, and there is also a fair amount of pro-independence sentiment. For now Taiwan still have the protection of the US, but as far as formal international recognition is concerned, it's been an uphill battle. So for Taiwan to get involved in a dispute that may sour relations with other Asian neighbours just seems very risky. Besides, if Taiwan really wish to distance itself from China, then it also makes sense to drop claiming the territory based on China's claim. And it also makes sense to try and keep relations with the neighbours cordials. Because let's face it, while China can muscle it's way, Taiwan can not.

It's also a shame that all those countries can't agree to just share the seas and it's resources. Saving military resources and more importantly, it would allow for the resources to be extracted benefitting the respective countries. Yes they'd have to share, but once again, I am left wondering why human beings can't decide to work together, and it's got to be all for the glory of one's country only.

Oh yeah, I wonder if this could motivate the recently re-elected Japanese PM to push ahead with his plans to change the constitution to allow more scope in what the JDF can do.

[Spreadie]

Looking at how much of the seas they are claiming, it's no surprise that the neighbours aren't pleased.

I bet the ROC and their neighbours are bricking it.

With China ignoring the ruling, I wonder if the US and the like will continue to sail through the South China Sea regardless? Backing off and avoiding the area is a non-starter, so I don't see how they have much choice; which risks inflaming tensions with China.

Still, I'm sure China knows exactly what is at stake - why else would it engage in brinkmanship on such a large scale?

[Mister]

What will happen is everyone else in the area will ignore the claims and China will be stuck in an endless battle to try and enforce it.

[Spreadie]

What will happen is everyone else in the area will ignore the claims and China will be stuck in an endless battle to try and enforce it.

They started building artificial islands to site outposts, to allow them to enforce it, years ago.

[Mister]

They can't police the entire ocean all the time. Look how difficult it is just to stop migrant/smuggler ships crossing the Mediterranean. Plus if they do decide to try and actively keep foreign ships out, their neighbours will do the same to them, penning in their cargo ships.