A bit chilly?

[Galant]

Some (most?) of you may already be aware but apparently Britain is in for some cold weather due to a very sci-fi sounding Polar vortex. (Cold winds from up north).

Sub-zero temps expected.

"Forecasts suggest Britain could be facing the coldest winter for five years, with average minimum temperatures likely to fall below zero in some parts of the UK." Telegraph

If it does prove to be a cold one, if you know any older and infirm neighbours, maybe check in on them and make sure they have what they need.

Wrap up warm hexites, but may your servers always be chilly!

[g8ina]

Not looking forward to this winter, I dont do well in the cold

[Ttaskmaster]

Pfft... Last time it was -7ºC I was hopping on the bike and blazing down the motorway at 70mph...ish. Apparently the wind chill made that -35ºC, though with just normal bike kit on and no feeling in my hands despite the heated grips, I wondered if it was worse than that.
Starting to think I need some of that heated clothing on my Xmas List...

However, I'm a big wuss compared to the elderly couple next door, who will be out in the same temperatures, doing gardening stuff and generally being so hard they make Vinny Jones look like a nancy!

[DDY]

Pfft... Last time it was -7ºC I was hopping on the bike and blazing down the motorway at 70mph...ish. Apparently the wind chill made that -35ºC, though with just normal bike kit on and no feeling in my hands despite the heated grips, I wondered if it was worse than that.

Starting to think I need some of that heated clothing on my Xmas List...

http://www.tucanourbano.com/gb/neopr...vers-9511.html

-1000 man points

+9,999 comfort

I haven't yet needed my muffs, but from the commute this morning I'm certainly thinking about it.

[shaithis]

Coldest in 5 years? Doesn't sound that intimidating! Especially when you compare it to "warmest October since records began"

Although if it gives us snow at xmas, I'll be a happy (albeit coldish) bunny!

[Jowsey]

It wasn't even that cold in Newcastle last night. I got myself out to my car earlier than normal so I could de-ice it but there was nothing to de-ice. Meant I was at work early but I'd have preferred the extra 15 minutes in bed!

[Galant]

Gah... looks like I've bought into some journalistic sensationlism.
The BBC and Guardian are reporting a cold snap this week but haven't ventured to talk about the winter overall.

Over at the actual Met Office website there's this:

"Over the next few months, ENSO looks likely to either continue at about the same level or move into moderate La Niña conditions. La Niña has a tendency to reduce the strength of the westerly winds which normally bring mild air to the UK in early winter, so is expected to increase the chance of colder-than-average weather. The effect of a moderately cool tropical Pacific Ocean on the UK could potentially be boosted by higher-than-average rainfall expected to persist in the eastern Indian Ocean."

"The stratospheric polar vortex - the wind system that whirls around the North Pole in winter – has not strengthened as much as usual this autumn. This weakness is forecast to continue over the coming weeks. The tendency for a disrupted stratospheric vortex increases the chances of weakening of the westerly winds across the Atlantic and colder-than-normal conditions in early winter, in spite of the westerly QBO."

"Current output from the Met Office prediction system for the November to January period points to an increased likelihood of high pressure to the northwest of the UK, in the vicinity of Iceland and Greenland. This ‘blocking’ signal opposes the progress of depressions which usually track towards the UK in winter and bring mild and wet weather. It therefore implies more frequent north or north-easterly winds and an increase in the likelihood of colder- and drier-than-average conditions, consistent with the discussion of the effects of current global climate above."

"Nevertheless, the increased risk of a cold start to winter needs to be put in proper perspective – the most likely outcome is still that conditions in the UK will be relatively normal in this 3 month period. It is only for contingency planning, where the impacts of cold weather could be high, that a heightened risk of a relatively low likelihood event may warrant some mitigating actions."


Pretty picture:



"While the peak likelihood in this outlook also moves downwards compared to normal, it is still relatively close to average conditions. The fact that the probability for cold is 30% means there is a 70% chance of other temperatures - ranging from moderately below average to mild. A cold season is therefore still not as likely as a more normal one. Cold winters in the UK tend to happen only every few years; most are not noted for persistently cold weather."

[Smudger]

Don't the Express and Mail predict the 'Coldest Winter Evaaaa!' every single year?

[Galant]

Don't the Express and Mail predict the 'Coldest Winter Evaaaa!' every single year?

Telegraph also covered it.

And now the Independent has released a story - but far more balanced:
What is a polar vortex? Why the UK could see its coldest winter in years
Met Office scientist Jeff Knight told The Independent the polar vortex effect on the UK's atmosphere tends to affect the weather "with a few weeks' lag".

"Dr Knight emphasised that the vortex was an "external factor" that could influence the weather, rather than being "intimitely linked" with weather conditions. "You can view the weather as rolling a dice. But something like a weak stratosphere is like loading the dice," he said..."

""...It’s important to say that it’s only an increased risk," he said. "There’s still a good chance we’ll have an ordinary winter. We don’t tend to get cold and snowy winters often in the UK, but it’s slightly more likely than usual.""

[Ttaskmaster]

I haven't yet needed my muffs, but from the commute this morning I'm certainly thinking about it.

There's only one kind of muff my manly hands go anywhere near... and those won't fit my bike anyway. The fairing cutouts are quite tight and they'd be pushing my levers just on half-lock.

Besides, it's everywhere else that gets cold nowadays. I'm at that age where "being manly" = being stupid, while "old and sensible" = making it back home that night.

[TheAnimus]

(Cold winds from up north)

Once again the North ruining everything!

[Ttaskmaster]

Once again the North ruining everything!

Shoot up, yer Lannister scoom.
Winter is coomin' an' we bin tellin' yer fer a while now, so it's your fault if yer didn't prepare for the White Walkers...

Oh, sorry, wrong forum!

[Spreadie]

It was bloody cold on the ferry to Southampton this morning, but it was almost balmy in comparison on the return journey this afternoon.

[Andeh13]

Lots of talk about weather.....But what does it mean for snow!?

[Smudger]

Shoot up, yer Lannister scoom.
Winter is coomin' an' we bin tellin' yer fer a while now, so it's your fault if yer didn't prepare for the White Walkers...

Oh, sorry, wrong forum!

Yooo knerrrr nuthin, Jon Sneurgh

[peterb]

There's only one kind of muff my manly hands go anywhere near... and those won't fit my bike anyway. The fairing cutouts are quite tight and they'd be pushing my levers just on half-lock.

Besides, it's everywhere else that gets cold nowadays. I'm at that age where "being manly" = being stupid, while "old and sensible" = making it back home that night.

Many years ago I was out on Dartmoor in November, in the cold and wet, and the group I was in walked past a bivvy with a couple of Royal Marines in, snug, warm and drinking a brew and the thought crossed my mind that any fool can be cold and miserable.

Fast forward to a couple of years when I was out in the Lake District, when, having set of in fine weather and a good forecast, the weather suddenly (in the space of 10 minutes) changed to lashing rain and strong winds.

Out came the tent, the stove and some food and we spent the night warm, and safe while the storm roared outside.

Next morning as we freckled back to civilisation, I reflected back to That evening on Dartmoor and the lesson learned!