Well Polaris does seem sensitive to memory speed, so HBM2 could make all the difference. It doesn't look like the comfortable lead one would hope for though when the 1080 is already available.
In fact, if you work out the per clock speedup from the GCN1.2 of an R9 380 to an FX480 and apply that to the performance of a Fury (as that is basically GCN1.2 and should have the same number of shaders as Vega and already has plenty of memory bandwidth) adjusting for clock speed then you can probably guess the performance of Vega. But that involves maths and I've done enough today, time to fire up a game and shoot stuff