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Thread: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

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    Post The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    The idea of the peak civilization anachronism is based on an extension of the Peak Oil theory--that oil production will peak in the near future and then decline to minuscule amounts.

    What is says is that as oil declines, so will the technological advances associated with oil, with a focus on plastic.

    Plastic is almost exclusively made from oil. While plastic can be derived from other things--like grass--it cannot be produced in the same quantity without oil.

    All alternatives to oil-generated power revolve around plastic. You can't have nuclear reactors or solar panels without plastic.

    Therefore, without oil, you have no alternatives to oil.

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    chown -R me ./base BlackDwarf's Avatar
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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Unless you invest in those alternatives now, before the oil expires.
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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Or recycle.

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Quote Originally Posted by Vetro View Post
    While plastic can be derived from other things--like grass--it cannot be produced in the same quantity without oil.
    But surely that just requires an increase in efficiencies of alternative production techniques?

    As demand for an alternative increases, so will efficiencies, resulting in a viable alternative to plastics - working to mantain the plateau.
    sig removed by Zak33

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    Senior Member JPreston's Avatar
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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Technology cannot peak, as knowledge itself is not a resource that is consumed. With hindsight, civilisation seemed to peak around ten years ago, IMO.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bertrand Russell

    The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Quote Originally Posted by JPreston View Post
    Technology cannot peak, as knowledge itself is not a resource that is consumed. With hindsight, civilisation seemed to peak around ten years ago, IMO.
    Civilisation peaked in the late 90s...? I think we might have a little way to go yet...
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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    I think it peaked in the 19th century to be honest

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Quote Originally Posted by Vetro View Post
    The idea of the peak civilization anachronism is based on an extension of the Peak Oil theory--that oil production will peak in the near future and then decline to minuscule amounts.

    What is says is that as oil declines, so will the technological advances associated with oil, with a focus on plastic.

    Plastic is almost exclusively made from oil. While plastic can be derived from other things--like grass--it cannot be produced in the same quantity without oil.

    All alternatives to oil-generated power revolve around plastic. You can't have nuclear reactors or solar panels without plastic.

    Therefore, without oil, you have no alternatives to oil.
    Well the point you make is well known, but none-the-less interesting. Oil is indeed the current bedrock of society... right now. However, don't underestimate the research that's currently underway finding alternatives, just because you don't hear about it. More often than not, as a new technology emerges, it will have undergone years, even decades of research.

    Now personally I believe that plastic is not so much of a concern as our ingrained predisposition to 'burn stuff' to generate power, even stretching to the government's directive on so called green & renewable energies. So called 'green' fuel like bio-diesel/ethanol is on the whole no better for the environment than todays cleaner fossil fuels. Plus it's production, in the quantity required to viably replace petrol and diesel is not sustainable if the world population continues to grow as it has & needs to be fed.
    [
    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzen
    When I say go, both walk in the opposite direction for 10 paces, draw handbags, then bitch-slap each other!

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Quote Originally Posted by 0iD View Post
    Plus it's production, in the quantity required to viably replace petrol and diesel is not sustainable if the world population continues to grow as it has & needs to be fed.
    It's only not sustainable if people are daft enough to grow biofuel as a replacement for food. Some people who jumped onto the bandwagon did exactly that because they could do it quickly and cheaply, but there's a huge amount of work (and progress) in growing biofuels that have absolutely no effect on food production.

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    The thing is what we need is for oil demand to become much higher than supply, like we saw recently, with the price of brent sweet crude light.

    This encorages people to look at other technologies, because it saves em money! The worry is, we might not get such a nice warning as oil relatively slowly climbing in price. So long as all we have to do is out spend the un-developed nations, rather than have to be outbidding other developed nations, we will get this warning peroid.
    throw new ArgumentException (String, String, Exception)

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Well hey say necessity breeds invention, but as you say, so do economic forces. However I still firmly believe we need to get away from the "burn stuff to produce power" mentality (co-fired coal powerstations for instance, like DRAX).
    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    It's only not sustainable if people are daft enough to grow biofuel as a replacement for food. Some people who jumped onto the bandwagon did exactly that because they could do it quickly and cheaply, but there's a huge amount of work (and progress) in growing biofuels that have absolutely no effect on food production.
    Totally, Algae farming is really starting to come into it's own now, in areas with suitable climates.

    With the government set target of 10% of energy produced by renewables by 2010, I still can't see it happening, and above all, is it too little, too late?
    Last edited by 0iD; 25-06-2009 at 11:18 AM.
    [
    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzen
    When I say go, both walk in the opposite direction for 10 paces, draw handbags, then bitch-slap each other!

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Quote Originally Posted by 0iD View Post
    With the government set target of 10% of energy produced by renewables by 2010, I still can't see it happening, and above all, is it too little, too late?
    The govn. can set all the targets the like.. nothing will happen while local councils are such NIMBYs. Where we are for example they wanted to create a wind farm - there is only really one good location for it on a ridge, to get enough wind, and it wouldn't have disturbed anyone except for putting a few (lovely) windmills on the horizon. But no, they didn't want anything like that in their area. Really disgusting to be honest, but that's the way of this country really (also applies to house building etc.)

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Algae = Seaweed right? I am not sure if there are species never used for consumption, but some are definitely consumed in parts of Asia (big populations).

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Yep, you have to love the NIMBY's, no foresight whatsoever.
    (Not In My Back Yard) for those wondering wut?

    Trouble is, places like the Palm Oil biodiesel project in Brazil are just sucking up massive tracts of rainforest & agricultural land used for food crop production. Looks good at first glance, but dig deeper & it's not so good.
    Last edited by 0iD; 25-06-2009 at 11:35 AM.
    [
    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzen
    When I say go, both walk in the opposite direction for 10 paces, draw handbags, then bitch-slap each other!

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    Quote Originally Posted by TooNice View Post
    Algae = Seaweed right? I am not sure if there are species never used for consumption, but some are definitely consumed in parts of Asia (big populations).
    Sure, but there's plenty of places to grow it that aren't being used already for food production or anything else. Ditto for other types of biomass.

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    Re: The Peak Civilization Anachronism

    There certainly is, vast tracts of the US & Australia for instance, but is biomass the answer to the world energy crisis long-term? Or is it a poor attempt to shore-up an already failing system?
    [
    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzen
    When I say go, both walk in the opposite direction for 10 paces, draw handbags, then bitch-slap each other!

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