-
General election, bookies' choice
Well Matty did well on the horses, how about betting on the election? Odds of party with most seats as of this minute:
Code:
| Labour | Tory | Lib Dem
----------------+--------+------+---------
Bet 365 | 4/1 | 2/9 | 16/1
Sky Bet | 4/1 | 1/4 | 14/1
Totesport | 4/1 | 1/5 | 16/1
Betfred | 3/1 | 1/3 | 12/1
Sporting Bet | 7/2 | 2/9 | 14/1
Victor Chandler | 4/1 | 2/9 | 12/1
Blue Square | 7/2 | 1/4 | 14/1
Paddy Power | 10/3 | 1/4 | 12/1
Stan James | 4/1 | 1/5 | 11/1
888sport | 7/2 | 1/4 | 14/1
Expekt | 4/1 | 2/9 | 16/1
Bwin | 4/1 | 2/9 | 14/1
Bodog | 4/1 | 1/5 | 11/1
Ladbrokes | 4/1 | 1/5 | 10/1
Coral | 7/2 | 2/9 | 14/1
William Hill | 4/1 | 1/4 | 8/1
Extrabet | 10/3 | 1/4 | 20/1
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Tory is really quite ahead by those odds, even though they need to gain quite a lot to take the most seats.
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TooNice
Tory is really quite ahead by those odds, even though they need to gain quite a lot to take the most seats.
Yup. Down by about 50% from last week though
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Interestingly choosing the best odds for each... (4/1 labour, 1/3 tory, 20/1 lib dem) this could become quite a profitable outcome for gamblers, with the current odds losing at most 4p per £100 spent (assuming no commission and perfect dutching) and a 0.05% net gain with the potential for higher returns should the odds on the tories stretch a little farther (to say 3/2 which makes almost 10% profit guaranteed across all three parties)
Involving free bets makes it even more lucrative :)
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
I could do some kind of 'emotional hedge', put £100 on Labour!
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TheAnimus
I could do some kind of 'emotional hedge', put £100 on Labour!
If you win spend it on lube for the next 4 years of shafting from the government? ;)
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
I was thinking it might cover half the cost increase of my accountants time......
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
I still thing a hung parliament is the most likely... Forex trade would be the way to make the most money!
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Quote:
Originally Posted by
finlay666
Interestingly choosing the best odds for each... (4/1 labour, 1/3 tory, 20/1 lib dem) this could become quite a profitable outcome for gamblers, with the current odds losing at most 4p per £100 spent (assuming no commission and perfect dutching) and a 0.05% net gain with the potential for higher returns should the odds on the tories stretch a little farther (to say 3/2 which makes almost 10% profit guaranteed across all three parties)
Involving free bets makes it even more lucrative :)
Eh? :confused: :embarrassed:
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lord Midas
Eh? :confused: :embarrassed:
It's called dutching, it's a way of betting on all possible outcomes of an event in order to guarantee profit provided the odds allow it to happen.
It's quite lucrative because many don't understand it so can't do it properly
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Anyone know what the spreads are for the number of seats? That would be a better way to see what the current view is as to the who will get what.
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lord Midas
Eh? :confused: :embarrassed:
If I understand it correctly, it would be: -
£75 on Tory (1/3) = £100.00
£20 on Labour (4/1) = £100.00
£4.77 on Lib Dem (20/1) = £100.17
Total Spent = £99.77, but the lowest winning would gain you 23p for £100 spent. It's not high, but guaranteed (well, there's alway the smallest chance that none of the big 3 would win of course...).
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gerrard
If I understand it correctly, it would be: -
£75 on Tory (1/3) = £100.00
£20 on Labour (4/1) = £100.00
£4.77 on Lib Dem (20/1) = £100.17
Total Spent = £99.77, but the lowest winning would gain you 23p for £100 spent. It's not high, but guaranteed (well, there's alway the smallest chance that none of the big 3 would win of course...).
Pretty much yep :) emphasis on the guaranteed, as it's not likely going to be getting RATM to number one this time as there is much more in it than votes alone
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
It's not guaranteed at all. The chances of a hung parliament are pretty high!
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TeePee
It's not guaranteed at all. The chances of a hung parliament are pretty high!
I'm counting only "most seats" odds, not majority party. A hung parliament is the difference between those 2 numbers.
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Didn't realise it was most seats. Could be a god earner if you can throw $1M+ down then...
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Don't think they would let you. AFAIK, bookies do try to guard against arbs by imposing a betting cap.
Incidentally, is there a bet for hung vs not hung parliament?
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Today's odds:
Code:
| Labour | Tory | Lib Dem
----------------+--------+------+---------
Bet 365 | 7/2 | 2/7 | 14/1
Sky Bet | 7/2 | 2/7 | 14/1
Totesport | 3/1 | 1/4 | 16/1
Boylesports | 7/2 | 1/4 | 12/1
Betfred | 3/1 | 1/3 | 12/1
Sporting Bet | 7/2 | 2/9 | 16/1
Victor Chandler | 10/3 | 2/7 | 11/1
Blue Square | 7/2 | 1/4 | 16/1
Paddy Power | 10/3 | 2/7 | 10/1
Stan James | 7/2 | 1/4 | 11/1
888sport | 7/2 | 1/4 | 16/1
Bwin | 7/2 | 1/4 | 14/1
Ladbrokes | 7/2 | 1/4 | 10/1
Coral | 7/2 | 2/9 | 14/1
William Hill | 16/5 | 3/10| 8/1
Extrabet | 3/1 | 2/7 | 16/1
Tory odds are drifting or static. Labour odds are shortening or static. Lib Dem odds are floating in either direction or static
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Today's odds:
Code:
| Labour | Tory | Lib Dem
----------------+--------+------+---------
Bet 365 | 15/4 | 1/4 | 12/1
Sky Bet | 7/2 | 1/4 | 16/1
Boylesports | 7/2 | 1/4 | 12/1
Betfred | 4/1 | 1/4 | 12/1
Sporting Bet | 7/2 | 2/9 | 16/1
Victor Chandler | 10/3 | 3/10| 11/1
Blue Square | 7/2 | 1/4 | 14/1
Paddy Power | 10/3 | 2/7 | 10/1
Stan James | 7/2 | 1/4 | 11/1
888sport | 7/2 | 1/4 | 14/1
Expekt | 4/1 | 2/9 | 16/1
Bwin | 7/2 | 1/4 | 14/1
Bodog | 7/2 | 1/4 | 11/1
Ladbrokes | 7/2 | 1/4 | 10/1
Coral | 7/2 | 2/9 | 14/1
William Hill | 16/5 | 3/10| 8/1
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Lib dems eh!
I'm in favour of having a break from the two party system, its just most of their policies contradict each other, some show a lack of full thought life cycle.
I guess I'm saying I want them to have more seats, enough to get one or too things through, but not the majority!
-
Re: General election, bookies' choice
Here's an interesting one: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...l-Tracker.html
The poll seems to be updating live, though I am not sure from what source. At the time of this post, the Lib-Dem is ahead of Labour by 2%. Yet in terms of seat forecast, the Lib-Dem is still far behind the big two.
At this moment, it also seems that 57.8% of the people at Betfair are betting on a hung parliament, and labour is waaaaaay behind on this scale. Then again, I am not too sure if Betfair users are representative of the general population.
