General election, bookies' choice

[directhex]

Well Matty did well on the horses, how about betting on the election? Odds of party with most seats as of this minute:

                    | Labour | Tory | Lib Dem
    ----------------+--------+------+---------
    Bet 365         |   4/1  |  2/9 |  16/1
    Sky Bet         |   4/1  |  1/4 |  14/1
    Totesport       |   4/1  |  1/5 |  16/1
    Betfred         |   3/1  |  1/3 |  12/1
    Sporting Bet    |   7/2  |  2/9 |  14/1
    Victor Chandler |   4/1  |  2/9 |  12/1
    Blue Square     |   7/2  |  1/4 |  14/1
    Paddy Power     |  10/3  |  1/4 |  12/1
    Stan James      |   4/1  |  1/5 |  11/1
    888sport        |   7/2  |  1/4 |  14/1
    Expekt          |   4/1  |  2/9 |  16/1
    Bwin            |   4/1  |  2/9 |  14/1
    Bodog           |   4/1  |  1/5 |  11/1
    Ladbrokes       |   4/1  |  1/5 |  10/1
    Coral           |   7/2  |  2/9 |  14/1
    William Hill    |   4/1  |  1/4 |   8/1
    Extrabet        |  10/3  |  1/4 |  20/1

[TooNice]

Tory is really quite ahead by those odds, even though they need to gain quite a lot to take the most seats.

[directhex]

Tory is really quite ahead by those odds, even though they need to gain quite a lot to take the most seats.

Yup. Down by about 50% from last week though

[finlay666]

Interestingly choosing the best odds for each... (4/1 labour, 1/3 tory, 20/1 lib dem) this could become quite a profitable outcome for gamblers, with the current odds losing at most 4p per £100 spent (assuming no commission and perfect dutching) and a 0.05% net gain with the potential for higher returns should the odds on the tories stretch a little farther (to say 3/2 which makes almost 10% profit guaranteed across all three parties)

Involving free bets makes it even more lucrative

[TheAnimus]

I could do some kind of 'emotional hedge', put £100 on Labour!

[finlay666]

I could do some kind of 'emotional hedge', put £100 on Labour!

If you win spend it on lube for the next 4 years of shafting from the government?

[TheAnimus]

I was thinking it might cover half the cost increase of my accountants time......

[TeePee]

I still thing a hung parliament is the most likely... Forex trade would be the way to make the most money!

[Lord Midas]

Interestingly choosing the best odds for each... (4/1 labour, 1/3 tory, 20/1 lib dem) this could become quite a profitable outcome for gamblers, with the current odds losing at most 4p per £100 spent (assuming no commission and perfect dutching) and a 0.05% net gain with the potential for higher returns should the odds on the tories stretch a little farther (to say 3/2 which makes almost 10% profit guaranteed across all three parties)

Involving free bets makes it even more lucrative

Eh?

[finlay666]

Eh?

It's called dutching, it's a way of betting on all possible outcomes of an event in order to guarantee profit provided the odds allow it to happen.

It's quite lucrative because many don't understand it so can't do it properly

[oolon]

Anyone know what the spreads are for the number of seats? That would be a better way to see what the current view is as to the who will get what.

[Gerrard]

Eh?

If I understand it correctly, it would be: -

£75 on Tory (1/3) = £100.00
£20 on Labour (4/1) = £100.00
£4.77 on Lib Dem (20/1) = £100.17

Total Spent = £99.77, but the lowest winning would gain you 23p for £100 spent. It's not high, but guaranteed (well, there's alway the smallest chance that none of the big 3 would win of course...).

[finlay666]

If I understand it correctly, it would be: -

£75 on Tory (1/3) = £100.00
£20 on Labour (4/1) = £100.00
£4.77 on Lib Dem (20/1) = £100.17

Total Spent = £99.77, but the lowest winning would gain you 23p for £100 spent. It's not high, but guaranteed (well, there's alway the smallest chance that none of the big 3 would win of course...).

Pretty much yep emphasis on the guaranteed, as it's not likely going to be getting RATM to number one this time as there is much more in it than votes alone

[TeePee]

It's not guaranteed at all. The chances of a hung parliament are pretty high!

[directhex]

It's not guaranteed at all. The chances of a hung parliament are pretty high!

I'm counting only "most seats" odds, not majority party. A hung parliament is the difference between those 2 numbers.

[TeePee]

Didn't realise it was most seats. Could be a god earner if you can throw $1M+ down then...