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Thread: Eastleigh by-election ....

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    Eastleigh by-election ....

    Unless you've been living in a cave for a couple of weeks, you'll know there's a by-election coming (Eastleigh, Hants) after LibDem Chris Huhne resigned his seat after (finally) admitting his guilt over point-swapping, and pleading guilty.

    But what do you think will happen?

    It's Con-LD marginal, with Labour way behind. But the Tories could take it if either the Huhbe factor keeps LD's apathetic and at home. Or if they're angry enough with the LDs to vote Labour.

    Or, if chunk of the Tory vote goes UKIP, that could let the LDs back in. UKIP could come third, or conceivably, at a push, better than that.

    There are so many factors at play I think this one could go almost anywhere. What do you think?

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    Re: Eastleigh by-election ....

    really hope the next general election will throw it wide open - green , ukip , ind , lab , con , ld , maybe even bnp

    hope ukip get in

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    Re: Eastleigh by-election ....

    Labour has a strong candidate and if there's enough dissatisfaction with the other two it certainly possible, but he has a mountain to climb and only 2 weeks to do it and his party hasn't helped by being rather poor opposition in Parliament, so not likely IMO. Looking at the numbers from last time, Maria Hutchings was only 3000 off winning then and is standing again if the pendulum swings back Tory as much as it did toward Lib Dem last time she's a cert.

    I think UKIP could of pulled a surprise with a strong candidate, maybe even Farage himself, but having Hutchings stand again rather gutted their campaign before it started as she's Anti-EU, Anti-Gay marriage and pro-life. Very hard to move noticeably to the right of, and I think that's why Farage didn't stand in the end. I think they'll aim slightly right of the Tories, mix in a little 'try something new' campaigning, knowing they'll make at least some gain and call it progress. I think they're holding the big guns for the general election tbh, biding their time knowing they can probably pick up quite a few experienced but dissatisfied politicians from the Tories before then and run them in constituencies they already had a strong presence in and the General's bigger platform is what they really want.

    Con by a nose if you ask me. Anywhere else or without Hutchings, Lab or UKIP could have posed a credible threat.

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    Re: Eastleigh by-election ....

    Lib-dems are playing the local card hoping that the electorate will transfer their strong local presence into by-election.

    Personally, I don't think people will fall for it, the Conservatives will want to strengthen the national party in the coalition, and the announcement by Cameron on Europe has to some extent pulled the rug from under UKIP.

    So far only UKIP and the Lib-dems have sent out sny campaign literature. The UKIP letter claims that they are shaping policy on Europe, the Lib-Dems are fielding a local counsellor, not afaik, a big hitter, as Huhne was.

    Could Lib-dems end up third? Maybe if there is enough anger at Clegg's performance in the coalition, but then again, strong Lib-dem presence in the constituency and Borough.

    Edit...

    Just seen the list of candidates...

    COLIN BEX - Wessex regionalists
    DAVID BISHOP - Elvis Loves Pets Party
    JIM DUGGAN - Peace Party
    RAY HALL - Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party
    HOWLING LAUD HOPE - Monster Raving Loony William Hill Party
    MARIA HUTCHINGS - Conservative
    DIANE JAMES - UK Independence Party
    DR IAIN MACLENNAN - National Health Action Party
    KEVIN MILBURN - Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship"
    JOHN O'FARRELL - Labour
    DARREN PROCTER - Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
    DANNY STUPPLE - Independent
    MIKE THORNTON - Liberal Democrats
    MICHAEL WALTERS - The English Democrats - "Putting England First!"


    (Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21418431)

    (Maybe number 4 will grab the majority vote!)
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    Re: Eastleigh by-election ....

    Come on Ray, you can do it!

    Other than that, I think Chuckskull's assessment looks good.

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    Re: Eastleigh by-election ....

    Read number three and immediately thought:

    No trees were harmed in the creation of this message. However, many electrons were displaced and terribly inconvenienced.

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    Re: Eastleigh by-election ....

    I'd vote for him...

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    Re: Eastleigh by-election ....

    Lib Dem hold and UKIP second. Didn't see that coming.

    • Mike Thornton (Liberal Democrat) 13,342
    • Diane James (UKIP) 11,571
    • Maria Hutchings (Conservative) 10,559
    • John O'Farrell (Labour) 4,088
    • Danny Stupple (Independent) 768


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21625726

    Dave'll be getting a drubbing today no doubt. Really surprised how well UKIP did.

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    Re: Eastleigh by-election ....

    Very close between the first three. UKIP a protest vote, question is where that protest vote will return to in a general election?
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    Re: Eastleigh by-election ....

    Ahh nice to see that Labour had deluded themselves.

    Its much like where I live, practically no one votes Labour, yet theyre always droning on about how theyre great and a real candidate, a vote for "fixing this or that", and still manage to poll just enough to get the deposit back.

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