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Thread: Really bad year for air disasters

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    Really bad year for air disasters

    In addition to the two Malaysian Airlines, we also have one flight from Taiwan that went down on the 24th (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/24/wo...n-plane-crash/) and an Algerian plane that went down on the 26th (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/25/wo...ash/index.html). Considering that my family air travel a lot, to Taiwan, various places in Africa amongst other countries, it does worry me. I know that planes are one of the safest form of transportation, but it's still no consolation from having lost my high school best friend to a commercial airliner crash years ago.

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    The late but legendary peterb - Onward and Upward peterb's Avatar
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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    What can one say, apart from sympathize over the loss of your High school friend's

    Air travel is, statistically, one of the safer forms of transport. More people die in road accidents, but that is a trickle effect, air accidents have more immediate effect because they are dramatic, and in a major accident, there are few if any survivors.

    I suppose some airlines and routes will carry higher risks than others, but it is hard to quantify those.. This year has been less good for air travellers, but other modes of transport have had their share of accidents. Leaving aside road transport, the last two or three years have seen rail accidents and ferry disasters.

    Does frequent travelling increase the risk? Statistically, each journey carries the same level of risk so if you survive one (as you almost certainly will) then the odds don't change for the next one. Statistics only apply to populations of events, not individual ones.

    I suppose to minimize the risks, one might chose an airline with a good safety record, and avoid routes that may be less safe - if that can be determined

    Otherwise, the question is if he journey really essential? If it is business, can it be conducted using video conferencing or other technological means?
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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    Quote Originally Posted by peterb View Post
    Does frequent travelling increase the risk? Statistically, each journey carries the same level of risk so if you survive one (as you almost certainly will) then the odds don't change for the next one. Statistics only apply to populations of events, not individual ones.
    Each individual flight carries the same risk, but if you do 10 flights per year you are 10 times more likely to be involved in an air accident than someone who flies once per year.

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    The late but legendary peterb - Onward and Upward peterb's Avatar
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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    Quote Originally Posted by Butcher View Post
    Each individual flight carries the same risk, but if you do 10 flights per year you are 10 times more likely to be involved in an air accident than someone who flies once per year.
    Yes, but when you have survived 9, the odds of surviving the tenth are the same as surviving the first. Each flight has to be considered in isolation.
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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    Quote Originally Posted by peterb View Post
    Air travel is, statistically, one of the safer forms of transport. More people die in road accidents, but that is a trickle effect, air accidents have more immediate effect because they are dramatic, and in a major accident, there are few if any survivors.
    Stats can be meaningless since some of Air Malaysia's passengers may have flew for the very first time.

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    Im trying not to think about it too much, as i have spent more time in the Air over the past 7 months than i had in total before it, and i dont see it reducing over the next year and a half.

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    Statistically, airline travel is still very safe. I've lost four friends this year, one being my former boss. He flew into a mountain with an airplane that I flew all over the US a few years ago. So yeah, it's been a bad year.

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    I've ridden motorbikes for about 12 years. My mate gives me the 'ride safe' spiel every time i leave their house at 1am for the 50 mile ride home. I've never been injured on the bike, while they've been hospitalized several times in car crashes over the same period.
    Last edited by wasabi; 29-07-2014 at 05:11 PM.

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    The point is that you don't hear about all the car/motorcycle accidents but you do hear all the plane accidents... so statistically we are more "in-tune" with the air accidents - the other accidents don't matter as much...

    Jenny

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    I know that statistically, the odds are still by far on our side, which is why the tragedy did not stop me from flying frequently since. And it is a really tragic story, the guy had just turned 18, and it was basically a trip to celebrate his 18th B-Day and the completion of his secondary studies. Top block I genuinely respected him for his maturity for his age. I also seriously considered joining him and it was really by luck (in light of the consequence) that I did not. But even though the odds of not getting involved in an accident is on our side, the odds of survival if anything were to happen isn't. Lots more people get involved in accidents of various severity on the road, and while fatality is common, survival isn't uncommon. Looking at the last few accidents involving planes, it's almost always fatal

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    http://planefinder.net/

    This always makes me realise how safe air travel is. I mean look how may planes are in the sky at this very moment (7916 at time of writing) vs the ones that have been lost. If playing the numbers game its looking pretty good.

    Still doesn't stop the recent disasters from sucking any less tho

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    Quote Originally Posted by wasabi View Post
    I've ridden motorbikes for about 12 years. My mate gives me the 'ride safe' spiel every time i leave their house at 1am for the 50 mile ride home. I've never been injured on the bike, while they've been hospitalized several times in car crashes over the same period.
    So his advice is working

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEf35NtlBLg

    gives an impression of how pilots react to a problem.
    throw new ArgumentException (String, String, Exception)

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    Quote Originally Posted by TheAnimus View Post
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEf35NtlBLg

    gives an impression of how pilots react to a problem.
    That was genuinely fascinating. Cheers!

    Always time for chocolate!

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    Quote Originally Posted by TheAnimus View Post
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEf35NtlBLg

    gives an impression of how pilots react to a problem.

    5:55, FO talking to ATC, while Captain is discussing the problem on company, and you've got the second FO working the manuals. That's good CRM.

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    Re: Really bad year for air disasters

    Quote Originally Posted by TeePee View Post
    5:55, FO talking to ATC, while Captain is discussing the problem on company, and you've got the second FO working the manuals. That's good CRM.
    Indeed, no one is really fussed at all. Even as Biscuit says, having the time for chocolate, this is part of good CRM, as a long crisis might result in people forgetting to take on sugar / water, because they are preoccupied with the stress.

    It's an amazing advertisement for SwissAir!
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