Nvidia Stock Outlook

[AGTDenton]

Interesting outlook on nVidia stock. Though I think we all know this was inevitable

[Rob_B]

Everyone could see this coming, can't say I feel sorry for them being caught on the back foot. When the 3xxx series fire sale stops and the 4xxx is released at (probably) a crazy price as Nvidia have seen what people will pay for GPUs then I'm not sure it gets much better for them any time soon.

[kalniel]

I don't understand the video. All tech stocks had a big sell off at the start of the year. Most have staged a slight recovery recently and Nvidia and AMD have moved almost identically.

[kompukare]

Like banks too big to fail, the question is did Nvidia learn any lessons from the previous crash?

No, of course not!

Schadenfreude doesn't begin to describe how most gamers must feel though!

[cptwhite_uk]

It's fun to predict if Nvidia will be successful with the 4000 series. The market conditions aren't favourable.

While there's a lot of excitement at the moment, I suspect the series might be seen in retrospect as a bit of a flop:

• High power usage (given current energy prices it might even sway some potential buyers?)
• It's success will be viewed through the lens of how successful the 3000 series has been
• Reduced demand on the gaming side now lockdowns are mostly in the past
• Reduce demand on the cyptomining side? I don't follow it closely but believe the shift might be moving away from GPUs in the near future?
• Strong competition from AMD and their 7000 series
• Potentially priced too high (to milk loyal fans), then depending on sales and inventory, a price reduction around spring next year if the 4000 isn't selling as fast as they'd hoped?

I suspect all things considered it'll be the equivalent of their 700 series, powerful but power hungry, and future generations will hopefully be more refined with lower TDP? Maybe I'm dreaming....

[[GSV]Trig]

The power requirements aren't as bad as originally predicted, still, before it drops and we get benchmarks we'll not know.
Personally, IMHO, I don't think we'll see the same jump as we did from the 2xxx to the 3xxx when the 3xxx vs 4xxx figures land.
Pricing, I agree, they'll maybe knock a bit off of the 3xxx stock to clear them, but then price the 4xxx a touch higher than they might have done before COVID because the whole shortage/mining/scalping thing showed just how much people are willing to pay for a GPU, that said, with the global crisis only just starting to kick in maybe they'll drop the prices pretty quickly because people either bought a 3xxx eventually and that's them done on the GPU for a few years, or people just won't want to pay a premium as its a luxury item..

[Lilpeepfan]

is it predicted to fall more?

[Saracen999]

is it predicted to fall more?

Some people predict will still fall, and give reasons, but others predict they won't, and also give reasons. My prediction is both camps are guessing and neither really knows.

If you're trying to decide whether to buy a card based on what's going to happen to prices, my advice would be to consider what you risk if you base on a prediction and are wrong.

If you predict prices won't fall, and are wrong, you're going to end up missing out on a saving you could have made by waiting for the fall. But that begs the question .... how much do you predict prices will fall by? I seriously doubt they'll be huge (like 50%) savings, so if a card falls by $50-$100 then yeah, you could lose out by that.

But if you predict prices will fall, and they don't, or don't by enough to really matter, then you run the risk that nVidia sell out stocks of 30xx cards (as they're trying to do) and next thing you know is 40xx cards launch, 30xx cards are simply unobtainable (new) and the 40xx just might end up being seriously more expensive, which is the other question nobody (in public) has an answer to ... what will 40xx cards cost compared to 30xx, and for that matter, will they be sufficently better to be worth paying it?

Either way, you run a risk. Which risk, a probably modest saving or maybe getting priced out altogether, matters to you?

Finally, when will that 30xx to 40xx change-over happen? Some people predict the next couple of months. Others were predicting July, but seeing as we're already well past that, it seems unlikely. Other predictions, depending on what level of card you're interesed in, are for mid or even late next year. Who's right? I doubt anybody but nVidia really has a clear idea, because we don't know how many cards, and/or prodution commitments, they still have for 30xx and unless they're very near launch, even nVidia cannot be sure of levels of demand going forward, not least due to world conditions, inflation, fuel price rises etc. It's not hard to see consumer demand for expensive cards dropping heavily if very large numbers of people are stuggling to pay for food, and heating bills. It's going to put a dent in consumer demand and most people will see fancy graphics cards as a low priority when consumer confifence is massively clobbered by such concerns?

In short .... nobody really knows but it could be argued, the bigger risk is to wait, hoping for price drops which, even if they happen (I think they will) might well not be by as much as you may hope. And if you do buy now, you at least get to feel the benefit of using a 30xx card for what could be a year yet, before prices drop. If you wait, you may find yourself wondering, in 6 months, "but are prices going to drop soon?"


Note - I've mentioned nVidia but similar arguments (mostly) could be used for AMD cards too.

[kalniel]

I'm guessing we're talking about stock price fall rather than card price fall. If so, probably yes, as a result of the fed's tightening, but in concert with other tech stocks rather than anything Nvidia specific.

[ik9000]

In short .... nobody really knows but it could be argued, the bigger risk is to wait, hoping for price drops which, even if they happen (I think they will) might well not be by as much as you may hope. And if you do buy now, you at least get to feel the benefit of using a 30xx card for what could be a year yet, before prices drop. If you wait, you may find yourself wondering, in 6 months, "but are prices going to drop soon?"


Note - I've mentioned nVidia but similar arguments (mostly) could be used for AMD cards too.

This ^. Scalpers will try and gobble up initial supply again and it will be another wild-west scramble trying to get what you want at a sensible price. The best thing IMO is to get a decent price now on 3080/3090/6900XT and sit it out for a year or so. Doubly so if you still have any interest in maintaining a win7/win10 dual boot since the 3000 series are the last ones getting win7 drivers.

In the last few days I have seen AIB versions of 3090 < £1k, 3080 10/12gb < £700/£800 respectively and 6900XT at £740. Some decent versions of the 3070 have been down at £500 too.

[Saracen999]

The biggest price drop I've seen, compared to the last few months, has been the 3090Ti but, short of some very specific use cases (mainly, where more memory makes a big difference) I struggle to see that as anything resembling value for money, even at the newer much lower prices.

I'm not certain scalpers will go for this, especially if nVidia follow the common pattern of launching at their premium end and then slowly moving downrange, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they did. Partly what has me uncertain whether to jump now if what the performance differences will be, and in what scenarios. Personally, I'm not convinced about 4k resolution for gaming, and the grunt needed for 1440 gaming (not to mention monitor prices for 1440 v 4k) are much lower. Given that I don't feel I necessarily need any extra grunt from 40xx over 30xx, or what it's going to cost especially if scalpers do jump on it (which they will if they think it'll work, which probably depends on nVidia's stock levels and pipeline, on launch) I'd entirely agree that buying now, and waiting it out a year or so until the launch dust settles, is sound strategy. There's also the "bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" argument.

I'm still hesitating over whether to build a new machine at all, or I would have bought a few weeks ago when we had that brief flurry of FE cards actually in stock. I've got a sneaky feeling I missed a valuable boat there, and I can't claim I wasn't warned.

[ik9000]

The biggest price drop I've seen, compared to the last few months, has been the 3090Ti but, short of some very specific use cases (mainly, where more memory makes a big difference) I struggle to see that as anything resembling value for money, even at the newer much lower prices.

I'm not certain scalpers will go for this, especially if nVidia follow the common pattern of launching at their premium end and then slowly moving downrange, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they did. Partly what has me uncertain whether to jump now if what the performance differences will be, and in what scenarios. Personally, I'm not convinced about 4k resolution for gaming, and the grunt needed for 1440 gaming (not to mention monitor prices for 1440 v 4k) are much lower. Given that I don't feel I necessarily need any extra grunt from 40xx over 30xx, or what it's going to cost especially if scalpers do jump on it (which they will if they think it'll work, which probably depends on nVidia's stock levels and pipeline, on launch) I'd entirely agree that buying now, and waiting it out a year or so until the launch dust settles, is sound strategy. There's also the "bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" argument.

I'm still hesitating over whether to build a new machine at all, or I would have bought a few weeks ago when we had that brief flurry of FE cards actually in stock. I've got a sneaky feeling I missed a valuable boat there, and I can't claim I wasn't warned.

I was having a similar conversation with a colleague the other week. My advice to him, and ditto to you, since you don't need bleeding edge is to work out what level of AMD 5000 series, X570/X570s mobo and rtx3000/rx6000 GPU you want and then set price thresholds you're prepared to pay for each item. Every day hawk your preferred shortlist of sites and pounce when things are met. e.g. 5950x was briefly down at £470 this week but is now typically £510-550 again.

Alternatively the Asus PN50/PN51 options still represent very good value for money if you want a simple, mini, standalone workhorse.

[AGTDenton]

then set price thresholds you're prepared to pay for each item. Every day hawk your preferred shortlist of sites and pounce when things are met. e.g. 5950x was briefly down at £470 this week but is now typically £510-550 again.

Now we're up against algorithms I've started using a range of price trackers. Proven very useful

[Saracen999]

I was having a similar conversation with a colleague the other week. My advice to him, and ditto to you, since you don't need bleeding edge is to work out what level of AMD 5000 series, X570/X570s mobo and rtx3000/rx6000 GPU you want and then set price thresholds you're prepared to pay for each item. Every day hawk your preferred shortlist of sites and pounce when things are met. e.g. 5950x was briefly down at £470 this week but is now typically £510-550 again.

Alternatively the Asus PN50/PN51 options still represent very good value for money if you want a simple, mini, standalone workhorse.

As genral advice, I'd go along with that entirely. My situation is a bit different, partly for personal reasons, and partly because the newlaptop is doing a pretty good job of almost everything I want. And it should, being an R7 5900 and RTX3080, and 32GB RAM (albeit, obviously, mobile versions of CPU/GPU with the performance limits that implies. A desktop version, even of 5900X and RTX3080 ould add a fai bit more power to that, due to not being thermally limited but still, I doubt it'd add much to job efficiency, i.e. reducing things like encoding times for audio/video.

It would, however, add a fair bit in terms of ergonomics of use but what's going through my mind is, while that'd be nice, do I want it enough to pay what adesktop of that sort of spec will cost? That I'm having so much trouble pulling the trigger on it suggests that while heart says yes, head is saying "don't be an ass. No.".

There's a couple of extra wrinkles in that, not least that I have no desire to go to W11. That pretty much killed Intel 12th Gen for me (the scheduler thing) and I haven't seen a definitive answer but I wouldn't be too surprised if AMD said something similar, though the P-cores/efficiency cores thing isn't (I believe) an issue.

So yup, I don't need to be bleeding edge, so Ryzen 5000 will probably do. Having said that, the official launch announcement (not launch, just announcement) is, IIRC, tomorrow (29th), so I'll at least see if that changes the picture. And for the reasons I gave earlier, and as you said, 30xx probably trumps 40xx for me.

There's one more wrinkle, both for Ryzen 7000 and RTX-40xx that bothers me - a lesson I've learned over the years .... be VERY cautius about adopting early versions of anything in the computer world. There's nearly always issues to be ironed out, and while they (hopefully) can be fixed by firmware/drivers, it can take months and you can have a thoroughly nasty time of it until they are. That gives me concerns about Ryzen 7000, concerns about mobo's supporting them, and concerns about RTX-40xx.

And that's before costs of current versus future gen tech even come into it. I'm not that bothered about cost. I'm aiming for £2500-3000, all in, but I'm not looking to worry about a couple of hundred quid here or there. Hence, I'd go mid-range case (say, up to £200) but I need to like the case. PSU will probably be Seasonic and, because I don't think that's a good place to cheap out, probably one of their higher end models. RAM? I don't intend to be heavily overclocking and don't gove a hoot about RGB (or rather, actively want to avoid it) will keep speed basic, DDR4 will do, and no RGB. It'll save a few quid but it's more about getting what I want than what it costs. Mobo? Probably Asus X570-E (I think). I do want 2.5GBe LAN and Wifi 6 onboard. I did go back and forth between B550 and X570 and, eventually, bemused by specs, CPU lanes, max M.2 performance, number of USB ports and 3.1 v 3.2 etc, eventually gave up and decided to just get the more expensive variant and never mind the extra £130 or whatever that X570 will cost over B550.

I've got the spec of what I'd do pretty much nailed down. The two remaining issues are the W11 thing with R7000, and whether I actually want to do it at all. Especially the last bit.

So my situation is a bit off the normal track with considerations, especially the personal reasons bit, but in general, I'd give someone with most of my needs exactly the same advice you did.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Its not only Nvidia but plenty of other companies too will be affected such as AMD,etc. Too many tech companies have used cheap credit to push pricing up of their cheaply made consumer products up in price massively generation by generation,by exploiting the clueless and Whales who defend getting fleeced.

Then exploited crypto and now that interest rates are going up,borrowing is getting more expensive and people will find it harder to put everything on credit. Couple that with inflation and energy costs going up people will have less and less disposable income. I won't shed a tear if it means Nvidia,AMD and Intel end up with reduced sales over the next two years as people tighten their belts and are more selective in what they are actually getting for their money. They will actually have to reduce their debt inflated margins.

If anything I think Nvidia,AMD and Intel need to be taxed more for releasing parts with excessive TDPs and power consumption ratings,especially when the generation on generation increases are massive. Its happening both with GPUs and CPUs. Everything else is trying to go the other way,ie,less power draw,Nvidia,AMD and Intel seem to be wanting to push the boundaries of what power supplies can handle. All for gaming?

[ik9000]

Mobo? Probably Asus X570-E (I think). I do want 2.5GBe LAN and Wifi 6 onboard. I did go back and forth between B550 and X570 and, eventually, bemused by specs, CPU lanes, max M.2 performance, number of USB ports and 3.1 v 3.2 etc, eventually gave up and decided to just get the more expensive variant and never mind the extra £130 or whatever that X570 will cost over B550.

Mobo wise the two best X570 boards in terms of overall sheer flexibility used to be the Aorus Master, then the MSI ACE. I think most boards now are X570S where annoyingly they tinkered with configuration and lane sharings etc so they're not quite as versatile for my set up. Of those again the MSI x570s ACE seems quite well spec'd, the Aorus Master S slightly less so. Both ditched the dual LAN and the MSI dropped the ps2 port too which I found handy when installing win7 (though tbh you'd prob use a pci card for that anyway). Also if you want to run win7 on X570 the ported win8 usb3.x UASP drivers don't play as nicely with Asus boards. You can only have half the ports working with UASP on Asus boards (Either the chipset or the CPU ports, I can't remember which way around). The nice thing is you can get win7 installed on pretty much all X570 boards with the exception of a few ASRock mobo SFAIK (though personally I avoid ASRock as a default). Mine is fully working, with just wifi6 being the compromise, but as it's a niche boot option for legacy software I can live without the wifi when I use it.

I would need to look again at the Asus x570s boards, I've heard good things about the dark rock, but I haven't had chance to look at the PCIe lanes and storage/expansion options.

B550 is a false economy IMO, but everyone's use case is different.

If anything I think Nvidia,AMD and Intel need to be taxed more for releasing parts with excessive TDPs and power consumption ratings,especially when the generation on generation increases are massive. Its happening both with GPUs and CPUs. Everything else is trying to go the other way,ie,less power draw,Nvidia,AMD and Intel seem to be wanting to push the boundaries of what power supplies can handle. All for gaming?

Re the NVidia stock etc. Yeah I find it hard to be sympathetic too. It always strikes me as odd that a new node, supposedly more efficient, has needed 100W more to get the performance boost. Equally if you look at the power consumption trend the 2080ti was beaten/equalled (in most non-memory buffer limited cases) by the 3070 and the same will happen with the 3090 to the 4070. In both cases the power draw stayed the same: 250W for the 2080ti/3070 and the rumour is the 3090's 350W will apply to 4070 also, so that's not a power improvement. So performance per TDP watt seems strangely static. Hopefully there are some real-world performance/watt charts during operation to show what is actually taking place during use that will give a better comparison. What is dropping each generation though will be performance/watt/pound as the relative cost of the cards is roughly halved each time. (from ludicrous to just plain greedy)