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Thread: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Quote Originally Posted by opel80uk View Post
    .... The real problem is with the Eurozone project itself. It is flawed.
    Indeed. It is the triumph of thinking political ideology, and ego, can override economic fundamentals.

    It's not all that long ago that when I said the UK should not join the euro, I was told I was a lutyle Englander, was too fond of having the Queen's face on the currency, or was still residing in the vestiges of Empire and refusing to accept that the UK was a small, island, trading nation not Master of the Universe, or some such drivel.

    Fact is, it's step (and a big one) in a major political project, and that polutical will is simply not enough to make it work. At the very least, you need economies that are more of less in sync in economic cycles, bith in amplitude and duration, and not just in the instant but over at least medium if not long term. Then, you need not just currency union but fiscal and reguiatory union, AND a monitoring and enforcement regime but both works, and actually is imposed.

    Then, it can work.

    But I had two issues with it. First, the UK economy wasn't in sync. I don't agree with Gordon Brown on much, but on that, we're in lock-step. And it both should have and did keep us out. Secondly, ideogically, I'm opposed to the loss of sovereignty that absolutely must go along with fiscsl and regulatory union.

    The biggest single flaw was that the euro project expanded far too far, far too fast. That's the "political ego" I referred to earlier - the notion that political will is enough. In fact, it's about as successfu, as Canute was with ordering the tide about. And about as sensible, too.

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Saracen View Post
    ... In fact, it's about as successfu, as Canute was with ordering the tide about. And about as sensible, too.
    Actually not, because at least Canute was alone, putting his own rear-end on the line. The Euro-Elite decided to put whole nations in the briny. Oh, and IIRC, Canute was doing it to prove that he didn't have the power, unlike these other fellows.
    Last edited by Galant; 06-07-2015 at 01:37 PM.
    No trees were harmed in the creation of this message. However, many electrons were displaced and terribly inconvenienced.

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Saracen View Post
    Indeed. It is the triumph of thinking political ideology, and ego, can override economic fundamentals.

    It's not all that long ago that when I said the UK should not join the euro, I was told I was a lutyle Englander, was too fond of having the Queen's face on the currency, or was still residing in the vestiges of Empire and refusing to accept that the UK was a small, island, trading nation not Master of the Universe, or some such drivel.

    Fact is, it's step (and a big one) in a major political project, and that polutical will is simply not enough to make it work. At the very least, you need economies that are more of less in sync in economic cycles, bith in amplitude and duration, and not just in the instant but over at least medium if not long term. Then, you need not just currency union but fiscal and reguiatory union, AND a monitoring and enforcement regime but both works, and actually is imposed.

    Then, it can work.

    But I had two issues with it. First, the UK economy wasn't in sync. I don't agree with Gordon Brown on much, but on that, we're in lock-step. And it both should have and did keep us out. Secondly, ideogically, I'm opposed to the loss of sovereignty that absolutely must go along with fiscsl and regulatory union.

    The biggest single flaw was that the euro project expanded far too far, far too fast. That's the "political ego" I referred to earlier - the notion that political will is enough. In fact, it's about as successfu, as Canute was with ordering the tide about. And about as sensible, too.
    I would argue that, if you had currency, fiscal and regulatory union, with the monitoring and enforcement you speak of, then then it would make you far less dependent on having economies in sync, as you'd have all the levers at your disposal to make the adjustments required during periods of contraction in member states, if you felt that the Eurozone was about more than just simply an economic model. But that notwithstanding, the above is right – I was watching my smallest play with one of those shape balls yesterday, and it struck me that what the Eurozone is now is the child trying to force a cube into a circle. And unfortunately, that is true with whatever decision is made about Greece.

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    The EU leaders who were trying to scare and pressurize the Greeks with the threats of "a NO vote will mean leaving the Euro" and "Armageddon" have lost that bluff pretty badly. All the talk is now of "more talks". Threats from the EU leaders will come across as pretty toothless now.

    Dare I say the Greeks may win a pyrrhic victory staying within the Euro and other countries like Spain will follow the Greek example and start throwing their considerable weight around.. Then there's the UK referendum..

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Quote Originally Posted by opel80uk View Post
    I would argue that, if you had currency, fiscal and regulatory union, with the monitoring and enforcement you speak of, then then it would make you far less dependent on having economies in sync, as you'd have all the levers at your disposal to make the adjustments required during periods of contraction in member states, if you felt that the Eurozone was about more than just simply an economic model. But that notwithstanding, the above is right – I was watching my smallest play with one of those shape balls yesterday, and it struck me that what the Eurozone is now is the child trying to force a cube into a circle. And unfortunately, that is true with whatever decision is made about Greece.
    Well, not really, because some of the tools available, like (in normal times, anyway) interest rates, and to a lesser extent, money supply, are used to respond to economic factors. In that kind if currency union, you have one level if interest rates but with divergent economies, so going to find you can't raise or lower it according to YOUR economic circumstances. You even find that different economies have different internal structures, and the the reaction rate to a given change varies hugely, meaning the magnitude of change you need varies.

    For instance country A has a high level of property ownership by occupier, meaning that any interest rate change that affects mortgages has a pretty large effect, very quickly. That makes interest rate changes a very effective and fast-acting tool in the government's toolkit. Country B has a smaller home ownership sector, and a much larger rental sector, so interest rate rises don't affect anything like as many people, or by anything like as much, or as fast.

    So if a single tool can gave very different reactions to a single change of a given size, you're very likely to end up with Country S needing one rate policy, while Country B needs the exact opposite, if their economies are in different points in the cycle. Also, Country A needs a small change to have a given impact, but country C needs a much larger one, the effect of which could be highly damaging for B.

    And so on.,

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Quote Originally Posted by The Hand View Post
    The EU leaders who were trying to scare and pressurize the Greeks with the threats of "a NO vote will mean leaving the Euro" and "Armageddon" have lost that bluff pretty badly. All the talk is now of "more talks". Threats from the EU leaders will come across as pretty toothless now.

    Dare I say the Greeks may win a pyrrhic victory staying within the Euro and other countries like Spain will follow the Greek example and start throwing their considerable weight around.. Then there's the UK referendum..
    Which is why the EU leaders won't concede much to Greece - it wouldn't stop there, and THAT could destroy the EU.

    What most EU leaders are saying is Greece has to come up with ideas .... and their banks have to survive long enough for them to do it. They aren't saying they'll agree to those ideas. There's also a growing a distinct lack of tolerance among the peoples of Eurozone for sending every more taxpayer money into the economic black hole that is Greece, and they are the ones EU leaders, such as Merkel, need to get reelected, next year.

    It's all very well for Tsipras to say he has a democratic mandate, but he has a mandate to ASK for loans with his conditions. That mandate doesn't extend to Merkel, etc, to have to agree and they have their own electorate to worry about, their own mandate to consider.

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Saracen View Post
    Well, not really, because some of the tools available, like (in normal times, anyway) interest rates, and to a lesser extent, money supply, are used to respond to economic factors. In that kind if currency union, you have one level if interest rates but with divergent economies, so going to find you can't raise or lower it according to YOUR economic circumstances. You even find that different economies have different internal structures, and the the reaction rate to a given change varies hugely, meaning the magnitude of change you need varies.

    For instance country A has a high level of property ownership by occupier, meaning that any interest rate change that affects mortgages has a pretty large effect, very quickly. That makes interest rate changes a very effective and fast-acting tool in the government's toolkit. Country B has a smaller home ownership sector, and a much larger rental sector, so interest rate rises don't affect anything like as many people, or by anything like as much, or as fast.

    So if a single tool can gave very different reactions to a single change of a given size, you're very likely to end up with Country S needing one rate policy, while Country B needs the exact opposite, if their economies are in different points in the cycle. Also, Country A needs a small change to have a given impact, but country C needs a much larger one, the effect of which could be highly damaging for B.

    And so on.,

    I do get what your saying, but by centralising the controls Europe effectively becomes, for economic purposes, a country, and there is no longer 'your' needs, just a collective 'our' needs, no different to the US, which is also susceptible to regional fluctuations. I'm not saying that they would have been a panacea, but once you have central controls, then you can adjust sufficiently enough and that has to be a core tenant of any currency union. Of course what would have actually happened is the collective 'we' would in reality have been France and Germany, but you get what I mean.

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Quote Originally Posted by opel80uk View Post
    I do get what your saying, but by centralising the controls Europe effectively becomes, for economic purposes, a country, and there is no longer 'your' needs, just a collective 'our' needs, no different to the US, which is also susceptible to regional fluctuations. I'm not saying that they would have been a panacea, but once you have central controls, then you can adjust sufficiently enough and that has to be a core tenant of any currency union. Of course what would have actually happened is the collective 'we' would in reality have been France and Germany, but you get what I mean.
    That's the mistake the EU made, believing that political decisions, or willpower, determine the underlying economic reality. They don't. It's much more complex than that, based on history, human psychology, traditions and the infrastructure you have, to name but four.

    Over a long period, political decisions can have some effect on changing the underlying economy, but in the short or even medium term, it's wishful thinking.

    It isn't about economic 'wants', but needs and they just do not change because politicians. however determined or well-meaning, form a currency union. Politicians have about as much chance of doing that as changing course of the sun in our skies from East-West, to North-South. Or more accurately, expecting a Prime ministerial fart to blow an ocean-going supertanker off course.

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Saracen View Post
    That's the mistake the EU made, believing that political decisions, or willpower, determine the underlying economic reality. They don't. It's much more complex than that, based on history, human psychology, traditions and the infrastructure you have, to name but four.

    Over a long period, political decisions can have some effect on changing the underlying economy, but in the short or even medium term, it's wishful thinking.

    It isn't about economic 'wants', but needs and they just do not change because politicians. however determined or well-meaning, form a currency union. Politicians have about as much chance of doing that as changing course of the sun in our skies from East-West, to North-South. Or more accurately, expecting a Prime ministerial fart to blow an ocean-going supertanker off course.
    Indeed!

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Galant View Post
    Anyone else have a third option?

    an alternative way would be for Greece to rebrand as New South Germany and tells the bailiffs no one's here of that name, they moved out years ago mate.

    Germany gets to own the entire landmass and lifetime free holidays for the purchase price and the Greeks kind of become leaseholders rather than freeholders. Plus Europe sends them all the migrants coming in on boats. Given those people are the plucky grafters it will kick-start the Greek economy. Provided everyone pays taxes of course!

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    I found a couple of cartoons that made me chuckle:

    http://twitter.com/TeleFinance/statu...023874/photo/1
    http://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status...005889/photo/1

    The latter being the best I think... How many last chances will Greece get?!

    Edit: There's a new word relating to the Greek crisis now - Grimbo (Greece in Limbo)
    Last edited by The Hand; 06-07-2015 at 05:46 PM.

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    Talking Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Quote Originally Posted by thedailymash
    THE nation of Greece said sorry to the European Union with a present of an enormous wooden horse.

    Left outside the European Central Bank in the dead of night, the horse has now been moved into the ECB’s central lobby where it is proudly on display.

    A gift tag attached to the horse, which is surprisingly light for its size and has small holes along the length of its body, suggested that it should be placed in the bank’s vaults overnight to avoid it being targeted by thieves.
    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/i...-2012051527146

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    taken from the guardian (of all palces)


    but a good point:

    Sooner or later, someone will take a loss. Either voluntarily or when Greece defaults and goes bankrupt

    This is why single currencies have to be backed by a single state, or they fail. A currency must be unconditionally supported by it's issuer - there should be no such thing as Greek or German debt, only Eurozone debt, backed absolutely by the united strength of the whole Eurozone. A Eurozone in which every citizen regards themselves as a euro-citizen first, a common identity and shared destiny that allows for direct transfers of cash from rich to poor areas, where dumping a weakest link (no matter how "badly behaved") is literally unthinkable

    Instead the euro has shown itself as being 19 separate countries, where national identities are paramount, where there is no sharing of risk or debt let alone transfers of cash - and where in a time of crisis, disunity prevails as each member looks after it's own interest sand stuff everyone else

    In the USA, all regard themselves as American, all states back the dollar unconditionally, there is a centralised federal government and treasury, big transfers between rich and poor states - and no one would even think of chucking out a State from the Union

    Europe has shown itself a paper tiger, no one will ever take it seriously again. Yugoslavia, the migrant crisis, the euro - they have all shown that European unity is a fantasy, it does not exist

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    In the USA, all regard themselves as American, all states back the dollar unconditionally, there is a centralised federal government and treasury, big transfers between rich and poor states - and no one would even think of chucking out a State from the Union
    This is not 100% accurate, although most of those that don't hold this position are sort of on the fringe. Texas, for a lot of years, and even more so now, has talked of succession from the Union, and while it's not likely, if it were to happen, would become a country as large, or larger, than a lot of European countries population wise, and larger than all of them in size that are in the EU. There's also a lot more autonomy in the individual states than most people abroad realize. Each state more or less sets its own policies, and so long as they don't violate federal law, they do more or less what they want. This includes everything from abortion laws to speed limits to the death penalty.

    Occasionally, in jest or otherwise, you see the term 'typical American' bandied about - there's no more any such thing as a typical American as there is a typical European. Most of us identify first with state, and possibly city or region before even that. Then we're American. We run the political spectrum from A to Z, although I think there a lot less anarchists or communists here than there are in Europe. Yes - we're quick to unite under a common banner, but that's individual choice, and not obligation.

    While we haven't had any states go bankrupt, we have had some major cities do so - most recently Detroit. It's never fun, but there almost always seem to be a way out that's found - and it's not done in a way that belittles the side being aided. And from the outside looking in, it certainly appears that, in particular, France and Germany are treating Greece like some sort of stepchild that's been found stealing crumbs.

    Ultimately, unless every country in Europe were to agree to give up their individual sovereignty to an overriding group that doesn't represent any individual country (meaning there would need to be an area of land politically independent AND separate form Brussels) as a capitol authority, to include, but not limited to, currency, military, etc, and go from being Europe to being the United States of Europe (or some similar title), then there should be no real comparison made to the USA, because the differences, as they exist now, far outweigh any similarities. And a single currency, and one overriding set of laws would be inappropriate.

    And I wouldn't want to imagine the possible chaos that would ensue if Greece were to close its borders to all the 'immigrants' from North Africa. Especially considering the (reported) attitudes of Germany and France towards them already. Italy is getting pounded - will Germany and France pick up the slack? I wouldn't bet on it.

    This

    Sooner or later, someone will take a loss. Either voluntarily or when Greece defaults and goes bankrupt

    This is why single currencies have to be backed by a single state, or they fail. A currency must be unconditionally supported by it's issuer - there should be no such thing as Greek or German debt, only Eurozone debt, backed absolutely by the united strength of the whole Eurozone. A Eurozone in which every citizen regards themselves as a euro-citizen first, a common identity and shared destiny that allows for direct transfers of cash from rich to poor areas, where dumping a weakest link (no matter how "badly behaved") is literally unthinkable

    Instead the euro has shown itself as being 19 separate countries, where national identities are paramount, where there is no sharing of risk or debt let alone transfers of cash - and where in a time of crisis, disunity prevails as each member looks after it's own interest sand stuff everyone else
    is the part that matters. And again, as an outsider looking in, I'm still sort of shocked that the member states of the EU have allowed Germany to have so much individual power yet again. Instead of being a military bully, they're now being perceived as a financial bully - and one can be as dangerous, if not more so, than the other. And this is another reason (IMO) that the Eurozone is not a viable model as is.

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    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Here's an interesting take on things from Thomas Piketty via Quartz, looking at German hypocrisy and calling for a European conference on handling all European debt.

    Some snippets:

    "Piketty: When I hear the Germans say that they maintain a very moral stance about debt and strongly believe that debts must be repaid, then I think: what a huge joke! Germany is the country that has never repaid its debts. It has no standing to lecture other nations.

    …after the war ended in 1945, Germany’s debt amounted to over 200% of its GDP. Ten years later, little of that remained: public debt was less than 20% of GDP. Around the same time, France managed a similarly artful turnaround. We never would have managed this unbelievably fast reduction in debt through the fiscal discipline that we today recommend to Greece… Think about the London Debt Agreement of 1953, where 60% of German foreign debt was cancelled and its internal debts were restructured.

    Die Zeit: Many Germans believe that the Greeks still have not recognized their mistakes and want to continue their free-spending ways.

    Piketty: If we had told you Germans in the 1950s that you have not properly recognized your failures, you would still be repaying your debts. Luckily, we were more intelligent than that."
    No trees were harmed in the creation of this message. However, many electrons were displaced and terribly inconvenienced.

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      • rubbish

    Re: So, Greece heading for Euro Ausgang, Sortie, Exit? Place your bets ...

    Are many of those Germans still around? Or are we saying that you should be responsible for the sins of your father, as it were?

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