What would "No Deal" mean for you?

[Zak33]

The entire political debacle which is Brexit is going to cause more worry than enough throughout Christmas and into New Year.

What would a No Deal Brexit mean to you, if it occured?

[MrJim]

Well, no doubt the value of the Pound would take another nose-dive, much like it did after the Referendum...so buying pretty much anything will get that bit more expensive, and that's before the effect of import tariffs is taken into account. It's possible that there will be food shortages, at least in the short-term. I'm also a long-term user of various prescription medication, many of which are produced in the EU, so it's quite possible there will be supply problems with those too.

[Galant]

The entire political debacle which is Brexit is going to cause more worry than enough throughout Christmas and into New Year.

What would a No Deal Brexit mean to you, if it occured?

The best possible scenario at this point.

It's clear the EU aren't playing nice in the negotiations. I was thinking the other day from the perspective of nations outside the EU. The EU is notoriously difficult to reach a trade deal with. In essence, that's what we're facing now. Politicians want to point the finger at one another but honestly, the finger should be pointed at the EU.

Brexit isn't about this EU deal. The EU deal is an attempt to smooth the transition out of the EU but the point of Brexit is to regain the right to determine our own policies and direction. A no-deal Brexit would mean that an EU-UK trade deal becomes a future goal (the fault of the EU, primarily, in not getting it done), but it would leave all other options open.

Talk of a 'No Deal' is always negative. But as things stand, the current deal means we face multiple other "No Deal" scenarios - No deal with Australia, no deal with NZ, no deal with India, no deal with Japan, no deal with the USA, no deal with the other Commonwealth nations, no deal with African nations etc.

On the other hand, a No Deal scenario with the EU would mean we could not only change the way that business is done (there's been talk of future trade alliances between commonwealth and english-speaking nations, numerous foreign leaders have spoke very positively of desiring closer ties and trade with the UK) but it also gives more power back to British politicians on every side of the discussions.

Often times the goal or nature of Brexit has been disputed - it's about immigration and freedom of movement, it's about the ECJ, it's about fisheries, it's about sovereignty etc... I have my own opinion on that, however, a deal scenario that gains full autonomy for the UK in all areas would mean that concerned individuals can set about working towards the preferred results in whichever area is most important to them. Do you want a liberal immigration policy? We are free to pursue it. Do you want a strict, Australian style immigration policy? We're free to pursue it. etc. We are free to have those debates within the UK and follow whichever lines we decide upon.

As individuals, especially as adults, we value our freedom. A no deal scenario would cause short term issues but give us long term flexibility and benefits.
A crap deal scenario, based on the current plan, would be horrendous, limiting our trade options and making us a slave to EU trade aspirations.
Staying in the EU - would mean closer union, full participation in the Euro, and the path towards a single, "unified" European super-state.

A recent piece by MEP Dan Dalton (Remainer) highlights some of the issues with a deal that seeks now to keep us in the Customs Union.
https://www.danieldaltonmep.co.uk/ne...union-bad-idea

Count me firmly on the side who hopes for a full exit from the EU. I'd rather a good trade deal, but I don't believe such a thing is possible. The EU are being belligerent, so 'No Deal' is the only pragmatic scenario left for us.

All that said, I'm losing hope. Sign me up for a tin-foil hat if you like, but all the shenanigans lately lead me to believe that all these negotiations have simply been an attempt to frustrate Brexit and get the UK back into the EU via the quickest possible route. No other votes to leave have ever been successful, and I think this is what it feels like for us to now also face that scenario.


EDIT - Switzerland have just announced legislation to keep the wheels turning as is even the case of a 'No Deal' scenario:

"Bern, 14.12.2018 - At its meeting on 14 December the Federal Council approved the text of a trade agreement with the UK aiming to maintain existing economic and trade relations with the country after its departure from the European Union. The conclusion of this agreement forms part of the Federal Council’s ‘Mind the Gap’ strategy...

...However, there is a possibility that the UK may leave the EU in a disorderly manner (‘No deal’ scenario) on 29 March next year, and that no transition period would not come into effect. In that event, the text of the agreement approved by the Federal Council makes it possible to replicate in substance the vast majority of trade agreements that currently regulate relations between Switzerland and the UK. If the relevant parliamentary committees, which will be consulted early next year, approve the agreement, it could be signed and be applied from the date on which the UK leaves the EU." - Source: https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/do...-id-73415.html

[Zak33]

Well that's expensive clocks, some cheese and triangular chocolate safe, so that's a start I suppose.

[Smudger]

The best possible scenario at this point.

It's clear the EU aren't playing nice in the negotiations. I was thinking the other day from the perspective of nations outside the EU. The EU is notoriously difficult to reach a trade deal with. In essence, that's what we're facing now. Politicians want to point the finger at one another but honestly, the finger should be pointed at the EU.

Brexit isn't about this EU deal. The EU deal is an attempt to smooth the transition out of the EU but the point of Brexit is to regain the right to determine our own policies and direction. A no-deal Brexit would mean that an EU-UK trade deal becomes a future goal (the fault of the EU, primarily, in not getting it done), but it would leave all other options open.

Talk of a 'No Deal' is always negative. But as things stand, the current deal means we face multiple other "No Deal" scenarios - No deal with Australia, no deal with NZ, no deal with India, no deal with Japan, no deal with the USA, no deal with the other Commonwealth nations, no deal with African nations etc.

On the other hand, a No Deal scenario with the EU would mean we could not only change the way that business is done (there's been talk of future trade alliances between commonwealth and english-speaking nations, numerous foreign leaders have spoke very positively of desiring closer ties and trade with the UK) but it also gives more power back to British politicians on every side of the discussions.

Often times the goal or nature of Brexit has been disputed - it's about immigration and freedom of movement, it's about the ECJ, it's about fisheries, it's about sovereignty etc... I have my own opinion on that, however, a deal scenario that gains full autonomy for the UK in all areas would mean that concerned individuals can set about working towards the preferred results in whichever area is most important to them. Do you want a liberal immigration policy? We are free to pursue it. Do you want a strict, Australian style immigration policy? We're free to pursue it. etc. We are free to have those debates within the UK and follow whichever lines we decide upon.

As individuals, especially as adults, we value our freedom. A no deal scenario would cause short term issues but give us long term flexibility and benefits.
A crap deal scenario, based on the current plan, would be horrendous, limiting our trade options and making us a slave to EU trade aspirations.
Staying in the EU - would mean closer union, full participation in the Euro, and the path towards a single, "unified" European super-state.

A recent piece by MEP Dan Dalton (Remainer) highlights some of the issues with a deal that seeks now to keep us in the Customs Union.
https://www.danieldaltonmep.co.uk/ne...union-bad-idea

Count me firmly on the side who hopes for a full exit from the EU. I'd rather a good trade deal, but I don't believe such a thing is possible. The EU are being belligerent, so 'No Deal' is the only pragmatic scenario left for us.

All that said, I'm losing hope. Sign me up for a tin-foil hat if you like, but all the shenanigans lately lead me to believe that all these negotiations have simply been an attempt to frustrate Brexit and get the UK back into the EU via the quickest possible route. No other votes to leave have ever been successful, and I think this is what it feels like for us to now also face that scenario.


EDIT - Switzerland have just announced legislation to keep the wheels turning as is even the case of a 'No Deal' scenario:

"Bern, 14.12.2018 - At its meeting on 14 December the Federal Council approved the text of a trade agreement with the UK aiming to maintain existing economic and trade relations with the country after its departure from the European Union. The conclusion of this agreement forms part of the Federal Council’s ‘Mind the Gap’ strategy...

...However, there is a possibility that the UK may leave the EU in a disorderly manner (‘No deal’ scenario) on 29 March next year, and that no transition period would not come into effect. In that event, the text of the agreement approved by the Federal Council makes it possible to replicate in substance the vast majority of trade agreements that currently regulate relations between Switzerland and the UK. If the relevant parliamentary committees, which will be consulted early next year, approve the agreement, it could be signed and be applied from the date on which the UK leaves the EU." - Source: https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/do...-id-73415.html

I don't think you can say 'it's all the EU's fault', they've been pretty open all along, you can't pick and choose which of the 4 pillars you want to adhere to. It's our negotiators who've been the arrogant, ignorant ones, hence the 'Once we're out, a new deal will be the easiest ever negotiated' or 'we hold all the cards'. We're the ones who've agreed a deal, but then tried to go back on it because we've realised it's not going to get through parliament, and no-one in the general public likes it.

May's deal is absolutely terrible, but wouldn't be as bad as no deal, with nothing flowing in or out of the country, flights grounded. And you can say that's Operation Fear, but I've seen nothing at all that makes me believe that won't happen, given the ineptitude of the delivery so far.

No Deal wouldn't have an immediate effect on me, I'm well fed, I'm not on any long term medicine, my company sells mainly to UK companies, but a lot of the companies we sell to are exporters/importers, so if too many of them fall, so do we, I'm out of a job.

I think the best route is a People's Vote. If people do still want no deal, then they'll win the vote, but I think a lot of people have seen just what an absolute pain it'll be, and think the whole thing is just a massive bad idea, pushed by people who have an economic interest in it happening, or who have enough assets to cushion themselves from the worst of it.

Edit - As far as immigration goes, we have always had control of our borders, we had the ability to track incoming EU citizens, and kick them out if they weren't in work or had visible means of support after 3 months. Our government decided not to do this. Leaving the Eu wouldn't stop immigrants from other nations coming in, either. Sovereignty? We have our own laws, we drive on a different side of the road, we have the pound. ECJ? Given some of our government's recent failings, I'd rather we had that particular backstop, and in fact some of our most ardent brexiters, Banks and Dyson have recently had cause to use it. Hypocrisy? Yes, massively. We'll use it ourselves, but we don't want you to be able to use it...

[badass]

Me, personally? I reckon it will make me about £5,000 poorer next year if we have a no deal Brexit. There's probably a lot of other negative impacts that are more subtle but they should sort themselves out after 3 months or more of chaos.

However if it wasn't for the direct likely £5k cost to me, I'd be more for a no deal Brexit than the deal on offer. The problem that I've got is that we are legally bound to the £39 billion and the backstop and the EU are legally bound to nothing at all. We hand them all of the Aces and we've got nothing more whilst they have all of the cards. It almost guarentees that the future negotiation will involve us getting a bad deal whilst they get an excellent one, rather than one that's a reasonable compromise. For me to support a deal, it either needs to be agreed in fill or us to keep enough on the table to ensure that we have a good negotiating hand. I'd be for it if the backstop was time limited (forcing serious negotiation) and that any money we are legally bound to is just for the transition period i.e. no more than £14.8 billion. That way if the EU want the rest (£25 billion) they had best give us something to make it worthwhile in return!

I got my figures from here: https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-m...ee-55-million/

I've taken out the public and private contributions to come to a net figure of £7.4 billion PA

[Corky34]

Doesn't it mean we have to open a series of boxes.

[kalniel]

I started to type a detailed reply, but as I began to realistically examine the personal consequences it got too depressing for my mental health. Needless to say, it's not good for my current life circumstances or the things I've spent my life working towards. That doesn't mean I'm head in the sand about it, and I'm doing all I can to mitigate the problems but in all of life's decisions there are winners and losers, and I just have to accept that I'm on the wrong side this time around.

[spacein_vader]

I started to type a detailed reply, but as I began to realistically examine the personal consequences it got too depressing for my mental health. Needless to say, it's not good for my current life circumstances or the things I've spent my life working towards. That doesn't mean I'm head in the sand about it, and I'm doing all I can to mitigate the problems but in all of life's decisions there are winners and losers, and I just have to accept that I'm on the wrong side this time around.

This. I'm still hoping we are sense but I'm planning on the assumption we don't.

[Spreadie]

Mainly it means I'll have to listen to the whining of those folk who voted to leave when the country really begins to reap the whirlwind they help to sew. Morons.

Nothing more than isolationist bigots and morons.

[eltel]

what we are leaving is not what we joined in the first place. we joined the common market not the EU with all of its manipulation and control that we cant do anything about.
a no deal Brexit is better for the UK in the long run we will still be able to trade under WTO? rules.
as for import/export tariffs it's a two way street who will win or lose playing that game the likes of France and Germany would not want import duties on cars and wine etc as it would put the cost through the roof.
I just want this mess over and done with NOW!

[kalniel]

what we are leaving is not what we joined in the first place. we joined the common market not the EU with all of its manipulation and control that we cant do anything about.
a no deal Brexit is better for the UK in the long run we will still be able to trade under WTO? rules.
as for import/export tariffs it's a two way street who will win or lose playing that game the likes of France and Germany would not want import duties on cars and wine etc as it would put the cost through the roof.
I just want this mess over and done with NOW!

Nice rant, but would you mind answering the topic question perhaps?

[AGTDenton]

You're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't...

I think for me to see any benefits of Brexit it should have occured 15-20 years ago. I cant see either way having a direct impact, only indirect which can only be experienced once it's taken place. And over some time.
If it takes 2 1/2 years after the vote to just leave then god alone knows what the future holds.

[ik9000]

short term, ugly. Probably recession bad enough to seriously threaten employment. Ergo, possibly lose house if that went on too long.

Long term? No idea, but hopefully some good might come of it - he says clutching at straws - but there is something to be said that the increasing political union aim is not something I think people ever voted for. The sad thing is it seems to be sacrificing the trade agreements that people did vote for to get out of the political part. It's where Cameron missed a massive trick, by holding a referendum rather than a "what do think on these 6-7 key parts of EU stuff" fact finder to give weight to the threat of what might happen if the EU didn't give some leeway and we held a referendum. It was tactical naivety, and has been ever since, with May pandering to their timetable to serve article 50 and everything else that has followed. A master of game theory they said she was. What game? Kerplunk? Sorry? Wot? Downfall? Those are the only ones I seem to see reflected in her EU dealings so far. Certainly not Diplomacy or Mastermind.

[wazzickle]

Me, personally? I'll have to stockpile insulin beforehand; otherwise I'll get annoyed at some stuff, but no material difference to my life other than the general feeling of being a lot less wealthy, perhaps made up for by the fact that everyone else around me has had a significantly greater loss of income to the point where perhaps I could actually afford a house.

[directhex]

The entire political debacle which is Brexit is going to cause more worry than enough throughout Christmas and into New Year.

What would a No Deal Brexit mean to you, if it occured?

Nothing. I divested from the UK 18 months ago - left the country, sold my house, moved all my savings to USD. The current US regime as an immigrant seemed a MUCH safer place to bring my family than staying in the UK.

But for friends and family still in the UK, it could mean anything, including job loss and deportation.