Boris is Boss

[TeePee]

GDP has only been increasing since the vote, and at a rate faster than France and similar to Germany. Now you could certainly claim the growth rate would be higher without Brexit, but the economic collapse hasn't happened. Don't buy every piece of disinformation just because the remoaners are shouting it louder and louder.

[kalniel]

GDP has only been increasing since the vote, and at a rate faster than France and similar to Germany. Now you could certainly claim the growth rate would be higher without Brexit, but the economic collapse hasn't happened. Don't buy every piece of disinformation just because the remoaners are shouting it louder and louder.

Is that currency normalised growth or is it reflecting the fall in the value of the pound so that our GDP in pounds in higher, but only because a pound is worth less?

[neonplanet40]

I don't buy every piece of disinformation. I have been reading and conti9nue to read a variety of media. They can't all be wrong. GDP has been increasing, but much slower than had we not voted to leave the EU. The BoE came out today and said that they expect growth to hit zero BEFORE we leave with a no-deal in October. Also, a 1 in 3 chance of recession. Not amazing odds and hardly good news for all those people expecting a rampant and burgeoning post-EU UK.

Nor does economic outlook look positive at all. In fact, I have yet to find any credible evidence of this great economic outlook post a no-deal Brexit that the politicians are claiming. The experts all seem to say unanimously that the economy would be in real trouble. I'm not saying a crash, but certainly enough to further weaken the pound and increase prices across the board for your average joe - all leading to a poor outlook instead of this much-fabled positive exit to the EU many have been and continue to be, promised.

[TeePee]

Is that currency normalised growth or is it reflecting the fall in the value of the pound so that our GDP in pounds in higher, but only because a pound is worth less?

This is currency normalized based on World Bank figures.

[Output]

One thing I can't help but wonder is if no-deal could be disastrous enough to lead to needing a bail-out from the IMF.

[kompukare]

One thing I can't help but wonder is if no-deal could be disastrous enough to lead to needing a bail-out from the IMF.

Ah, you mean the irony of whether both the UK's entry and exit from the EU would be punctuated by IMF bail-outs?

Maybe that could lead to a new measure of UK time.

[Top_gun]

GDP has only been increasing since the vote, and at a rate faster than France and similar to Germany. Now you could certainly claim the growth rate would be higher without Brexit, but the economic collapse hasn't happened. Don't buy every piece of disinformation just because the remoaners are shouting it louder and louder.

I suspect there has been a lot of spending on infrastructure in the business world in preparation for Brexit. Hence why there is no huge drop in GDP. Also, the Brexiters have gone on a spending spree from what I read.

I'm not too worried about the short term effects of the economy. It is the long term that worries me when the economy contracts slowly over a number of years. Similar to a falling share price when it becomes essentially worthless after so many years while you remain hopeful it will rise in value during that time.

[adidan]

Tory pre by-election tweet: 'Tomorrow’s by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire is a choice between Boris Johnson’s plan to deliver #Brexit by October 31 or the @LibDems who want to block it.

‘A vote for anybody other than Chris Davies is a vote to block Brexit.’

So BoJo, any comments? This from an area that voted Leave 51.86% Remain 48.14%

[TooNice]

Worth noting that the Lib Dem (and Remain by association) got a tactical win, Tory+UKIP+BP add up to 50.3%. So in a straight Leave vs Remain coalition, Leavers would have won even if Labour were to turn full Remain (and doing so might reduce Labour might lose them Brexit leaning Labour voters.. while any pro remain gained would likely come from Lib Dem.. though I supposed there are also those who abstained).

I will take any "win" against the present government, but in reality, Brexit probably have more supporters than I would like, and Remainers, perhaps not as much I would either. A second referendum or a GE would probably be very close between Pro and Anti EU.

My prediction is that we will crash out of the EU because it is the default and those who seek to block it won't manage it on time. Then we have a GE, with both Labour and Convervative take the beating of their history and will not be able to form a majority government in a long time to come with Lib Dem and Brexit Party becoming key to future government. And the issue won't be over with present Remainers becoming what the UKIP/BP has been to the established order so far, seeking to rejoin the EU even without the perks that we currently have.

[stevie lee]

I just hope Boris, or anyone really, has told the EU or even the EU realising themselves, the reason Boris has said 'its entirely up to the EU now' is that we cannot vote on the deal again. Bercow said as much.
its all well and good them saying 'that's the deal, no more renegotiation', they HAVE TO change it substantially in order for us to vote on it again. (barring proroguing parliament or election)
so unless Brexit is stopped or extended its auto-no-deal. doubt Boris would ask for an extension..


and according to https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...o-deal-brexit/ (paywall site) Corbyns missed his chance for no-confidence election. something about the timings of stuff as mentioned earlier, except from someone who presumably (?) knows a bit more about it than me.

edit; non paywall site and a MSN news link so daily mail don't get add rev https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...ity/ar-AAFian4

if Boris bumbles around for the next month or so, say until around September. then no-confidence vote is called, give that a week or 2 to be arranged.
then Boris loses the vote.
give a another 14 days for alternative government to try and be decided.
that fails.
earliest election date would then have to be early November - after Brexit date. with parliament dissolved 25 days beforehand.
at most they'll have a few days to go to EU and try and get Brexit date extended. can they work that fast?


so if Corbyn wants an election, he has to call no confidence pretty much, this week, except can he? because parliament is in recess until 3rd September.

doesn't that mean that we cant have an election before Brexit unless we ask for a few month extension, first thing as soon as parliament opens on 3rd sept.

so looks like its no deal unless the EU come up with something. or some crazy parliament takeover votes happen again.

[TooNice]

and according to https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...o-deal-brexit/ (paywall site) Corbyns missed his chance for no-confidence election. something about the timings of stuff as mentioned earlier, except from someone who presumably (?) knows a bit more about it than me.

so looks like its no deal unless the EU come up with something. or some crazy parliament takeover votes happen again.

I read something like that too elsewhere (BBC or Guardian). Which is why I am pretty sure that it is game over. But I think that there is going to be a high price to pay politically (let alone everything else). The conservatives will be blamed by remainers and moderate who would've preferred no brexit to no deal. Labour (Corbyn) will be blamed for being an ineffective opposition to a chaotic conservative government.

Lib Dem, Greens, SNP will likely see a surge, Brexit Party will likely stick around to try and block any attempt to re-join or deal that ties the UK too closely to the EU for their taste.

Exciting time ahead.

[adidan]

Worth noting that the Lib Dem (and Remain by association) got a tactical win, Tory+UKIP+BP add up to 50.3%. So in a straight Leave vs Remain coalition, Leavers would have won even if Labour were to turn full Remain

It's not that straight forward, Plaid and the Greens chose not to challenge that seat.

Just as in the referendum. 700k+ UK citizens couldn't vote as they've been taking advantage of EU membership and living abroad for over 15 years, countless others didn't vote because they felt they didn't know enough about the pros and cons.... And so on.

Ifs and buts.

[Top_gun]

It's not that straight forward, Plaid and the Greens chose not to challenge that seat.

Just as in the referendum. 700k+ UK citizens couldn't vote as they've been taking advantage of EU membership and living abroad for over 15 years, countless others didn't vote because they felt they didn't know enough about the pros and cons.... And so on.

Ifs and buts.

Also, the natural deaths over the last three years would have drastically reduced the Brexity majority to the point where we are now in the remain territory. Brexit is dead - no longer the will of the people. Brexit is dead Duck.

[TooNice]

It's not that straight forward, Plaid and the Greens chose not to challenge that seat.

Just as in the referendum. 700k+ UK citizens couldn't vote as they've been taking advantage of EU membership and living abroad for over 15 years, countless others didn't vote because they felt they didn't know enough about the pros and cons.... And so on.

Ifs and buts.

But if the Plaid and Greens had joined in, I think that it would be reasonable to assert that they are more likely to canibalise Lib Dem votes rather than take it from the Brexit/Tory camp. The arithmetic between leave and remain would likely have stayed the largely but with remain parties split (similar to Tory and Brexit) same and the Tory candidate might have won it.

Anecdotally, many of my would-be-remain voter friends didn't vote because they believe it was a done deal (with remains consistently ahead in the polls). That is why I have such a strong impression that brexiters really caught the remainers with their pants down (alongside reports of people treating the referendum as a protest vote).

So for me a second referendum isn't really about "getting it right", but to confirm that the will of the people, now that EVERYONE has their attention on this, is actually the will of the people. Now there will always be a big chunk of eligible voters who won't vote, and I am not really interested in arguing that there is no majority for that reason (same would apply with a slight win for remain).

BUT, if it is close, and IF 8/10 answer B takes it by a hair, but answer A takes it the first time, should we really just run with A?

I am sure that those who voted A would say of course, can't blame us if you couldn't get your bum out to vote the first time.. and I understand it. But at the same time, if we -really- care about "the will of the people" there should be no concern over checking if the will has changed, especially after several years and with new material information available.

[TeePee]

But if the Plaid and Greens had joined in, I think that it would be reasonable to assert that they are more likely to canibalise Lib Dem votes rather than take it from the Brexit/Tory camp. The arithmetic between leave and remain would likely have stayed the largely but with remain parties split (similar to Tory and Brexit) same and the Tory candidate might have won it.

Anecdotally, many of my would-be-remain voter friends didn't vote because they believe it was a done deal (with remains consistently ahead in the polls). That is why I have such a strong impression that brexiters really caught the remainers with their pants down (alongside reports of people treating the referendum as a protest vote).

So for me a second referendum isn't really about "getting it right", but to confirm that the will of the people, now that EVERYONE has their attention on this, is actually the will of the people. Now there will always be a big chunk of eligible voters who won't vote, and I am not really interested in arguing that there is no majority for that reason (same would apply with a slight win for remain).

BUT, if it is close, and IF 8/10 answer B takes it by a hair, but answer A takes it the first time, should we really just run with A?

I am sure that those who voted A would say of course, can't blame us if you couldn't get your bum out to vote the first time.. and I understand it. But at the same time, if we -really- care about "the will of the people" there should be no concern over checking if the will has changed, especially after several years and with new material information available.

It's just as likely that people's minds have changed after seeing how the EU is behaving toward the UK. Or that leave voters didn't show up because they didn't believe it would actually happen. (Which it hasn't, yet). There's no way to know how a further referendum would result, except to say that it would be relatively close. So then what? Would you demand a third referendum if the second didn't go your way? Or better yet, if it did?

[TooNice]

There's no way to know how a further referendum would result, except to say that it would be relatively close. So then what? Would you demand a third referendum if the second didn't go your way? Or better yet, if it did?

I have answered this before elsewhere and I stand by the following:

- No. I can't get over the fact that it might have been a fluke in the sense that a number of people who were happy in the EU didn't sense the urgency with all the polls indicating that remain had it in the bag.. Obviously I do not know how many there are, just that in applied to some people I know. I reckon that a second referendum will be viewed as do-or-die on both sides and anyone who still don't vote probably just don't care either way.

- No, I wouldn't demand it. If Brexiters believe that it doesn't settle it (and why wouldn't they) they can demand it, and I would be perfectly fine that they get it. In practice I believe that the second and third referundum would likely have the result as I believe that the second one would have both sides out in full force.

I genuinely mean when I said before, it isn't about rolling till I get the result that I want. Two win in a row and it would be hard to put it down to the fluke, especially now that both sides are fully awake.