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About LinkBacksAnyone else going to make a night of it?
Exit polls are showing a huge Conservative majority, above most predictions. Let's see if that works out!
Anyone else going to make a night of it?
Exit polls are showing a huge Conservative majority, above most predictions. Let's see if that works out!
What time is the Portillo moment for the Uxbridge & South Ruislip seat?
Now that would be entertaining!Originally Posted by Top_gun
I am, at least until we can confirm the exit polls are broadly right in around 4-5 hours time.
Such a shame that Brexit is now almost certain to happen, it will certainly spell out bad news for the UK...however, i'll take that over a Corbyn Labour government any day!
First results coming in now. Conservatives have picked up one from Labour..
At 00:38, it's not just the Holds and Wins I'm watching - it's the swing. And so far, even in Lab Holds, it's a swing from L to C of between 7.1% and 13% ..... which tends to support the exit poll predictions. The bigger end of that tends to be in Lab Leave seats but even Blyth Valley, first time ever Tory seat, it was 10%.
A lesson learned from PeterB about dignity in adversity, so Peter, In Memorium, "Onwards and Upwards".
Blyth Valley is a huge upset. Seeing that go i surprising, even with Brexit support and Corbyn.
Can London purged more Tory seats again?
If the predicted trend holds, several London Lab seats are at risk to Tories.
That said, an exit poll "trend" is not a good predictor of seats that aren't "typical".
So sure, it's possible.
Last result I saw was Jarrow (not Harrow, but them of the Jarrow marches), and iconic Labour seat, was a Lab Hold .... but even there, Lab to Con swing of 11%. I find that as shocking as Blyth Valley.
And even Ken Livingstone, a 40-yr Corbyn friend, reportedly says Jezzer will have to go. And soon.
What a mate. Who needs enemies.
A lesson learned from PeterB about dignity in adversity, so Peter, In Memorium, "Onwards and Upwards".
But to add to that, the average (mean) swing between Lab and Con so far is around 7.7% to Con.
So even if a London seat has a 1-vote Tory majority over Labour, Labour need to buck that trend.
Could it happen? Absolutely. London voting patterns are not the same as national voting patterns and that's exactly when apply "average" stats can be wrong and highly misleading.
A lesson learned from PeterB about dignity in adversity, so Peter, In Memorium, "Onwards and Upwards".
And as if to order .... Putney is a Lab gain from the Tories.
So not only could it happen ... it just did.
Con-> Lab swing, 6.4%.
But it's the first C->L swing tonight, out of 40-ish results.
A lesson learned from PeterB about dignity in adversity, so Peter, In Memorium, "Onwards and Upwards".
But don't get too excited, t-g, because in the few minutes since then, two more Con gains from Labour, including Wrexham which has been a Labour Welsh heartland seat for decades.
A lesson learned from PeterB about dignity in adversity, so Peter, In Memorium, "Onwards and Upwards".
And another stunner, part of a series of Labour heartland losses ... Greater Manchester's Leigh goes Tory from lab with a 12% swing.
A lesson learned from PeterB about dignity in adversity, so Peter, In Memorium, "Onwards and Upwards".
such a massive failure from Labour so far - the swings are indeed very interesting. The number of seats in the north that are turning blue with relatively large majorities is just stunning.
The other thing this shows me is just how out of date and unrepresentivie the first past the post system is. I am certain that Johnson and others will latch on to this as showing "How strong the support for Brexit is" when of course it does nothing of the sort - I hope someone can ru a simulation to get an idea of how things would have looked under PR in this election, to give a clearer picture....I suspect we'll see a much more even picture there.
Still, its going well so far, we may have had to choose between a douche and a turd sandwich, but at least the douche doesn't smell quite as bad.
Plus the lib dems have just held a seat, which makes me happyIDS is back too now. Not sure how I feel about that....
No argument from me on FPTP being .... if not unfair then certainly unrepresentative of the voters.
The problem is that all the alternatives have issues too .... like embedding a permanent coalition and unlike some countries where it works reasonably well (or used to) we don't have a tradition of making a success of it, whether you use the Tory/LD example or the even worse Lib/Lab pact. And look at the gridlock it causes in some countries.
A lesson learned from PeterB about dignity in adversity, so Peter, In Memorium, "Onwards and Upwards".
I do like coalitions, but only when parties have enough alignment....Brexit alone isnt enough to unite any party.
Labout failed by going far too radical wtih their policies, which would have proved divisive enough without brexit, and combined that wtih refusing to take a firm stance on what they wanted to do about Brexit....its easy to see why they lost votes imo.
There was no credible alternative that was going to win votes other than voting conservative. I still voted for my own party of course even if we had no chance of winning, but if labour had taken a pure remain approach and dropped nationalisation? I think the picture woudl have been very, very different.
Phage (13-12-2019)
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