Coronavirus

[Dashers]

Covid-19 has a low 1-2% mortality rate, most (if not all) have underlying health problems.

That's still a lot of people - I know people who are unlikely to survive, but Flu on the other hand isn't that much of a threat as there is an annual vaccination. Give it 18 months (assuming the vaccines in development work) and it won't be so much of an issue as those at risk can be vaccinated. Locking it down until summer 2021 (or whenever a vaccine is available) is a significant goal.

There's two ways at looking at these things. The cold numbers, or the fact that somebody you love might perish in an unpleasant way.

[ik9000]

There's two ways at looking at these things. The cold numbers, or the fact that somebody you love might perish in an unpleasant way.

There are worse ways. And is any way pleasant ultimately when you consider the event itself? Not saying it's desirable, but on the scale I can think of several I'd be glad that I'd avoided if it was to get me. The horrible bit is the length of time it will take. That is not ideal I suppose.

[Zak33]

Turns out the Japanese have the first case of someone having Covid19, getting better.. and then getting it a secnd time.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...D=ansmsnnews11

[kalniel]

Turns out the Japanese have the first case of someone having Covid19, getting better.. and then getting it a secnd time.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...D=ansmsnnews11

First case.. in Japan. Already happened in China as per article.

[Zak33]

First case.. in Japan. Already happened in China as per article.

ah yes!

[Dashers]

https://imgur.com/gallery/8AycuDb

flu vs covid

reinfection sounds alarming!

[TeePee]

https://imgur.com/gallery/8AycuDb

flu vs covid

reinfection sounds alarming!

There is the same error here in comparing the case mortality rate of Covid vs the mortality rate of flu.

The Swine flu in the US had 100k confirmed cases and 3.5k fatalities for a mortality rate of 3.5%. Estimate of real totals were 57M infected and 12K fatalities,.with a real mortality rate of a fraction of a percentage. With no data to estimate the percentage of infected people who are being tested for the disease, the reality of the quoted mortality rates is impossible to know.

[j1979]

It's right not to be fearful, but it is worth giving this much more attention right now than flu simply because it makes life in the future much better if we can kill off this virus (yes viruscide, how cruel of me - we can recreate it now anyway) before it becomes established. If it becomes established (ie beyond the possibility of containment) then it's just something we're going to have to live with alongside all of the other flus that are established, which means another 1% or whatever mortality. It all adds up!

I don't understand why it's not right to be fearful. Be fearful I say, spead the fear. the more people that have a healty fear the less chance of transmission.

the death rate is much higher than flu and inline with Spanish flu at somewhere between 1-3% so far.

That death rate is also desputed because of the way China has been counting the dead. Each hospital gets a specific number of test kits per day, people who die are not recorded as coronavirus deaths if the were not offically tested, and if the Chinese govenment only give your hospital test 100 kits a day, 100 cases is all you can offically record. They changed the testing method on 11th Feb for a few days (people with sysmtoms and a chest xray) and the figure shot up. People who died at home are not recorded as corona virus as are people that die before being tested.

In countries with low level of healthcare and no access to modern meds or equipment (Iran sanctions) the death rate is over 10%, if we get to a stage of being overun with cases expect the death rate to rise.

Also it's more contagious than any form of flu, and as shown by the cruise ship example and China.

The WHO's responce has to be balanced, their primary concern is money / health, not purley health. But if non essential travel was banned from early Jan we wouldn't be in this mess.

Our press in the UK is a joke, when the BBC Health corrispondent Tulip Mazumdar can't even get the year right of when the virus emerged (2019) on a Newsnight interview last night, you know it's beyond poor reporting.

We are told masks don't help but....
n95 standard or above should be reserved for medical staff.
the WHO wear them at press conferences

And they only apparnetly helpful with people spreading the virus not you catiching it, is that not reason enough to conside forced usage. Well im perfectly happy for there to be an enforced mask policy, so that those people that never learned to cover there mouths when they cough or sneeze arn't spreading this like crazy. Just because we don't have enough masks, it's not good enough reason for "expert" after expert telling us masks are of no use, if thats definatly true, then id like my free NHS hasmat suit please.

The so called super spreaders who may be totally symptomless are a thing apparnetly. It only takes one supermarket shelf stacker super-spreader, a create of cans of beer or pop to cause a cluster of cases. Airports are also a lottery at the moment.


well if you want to be positive, then at least the air quality in china is improving https://waqi.info

[Dashers]

Death rate is uncertain at the moment, but it's clear that it is higher than seasonal flu. We have better statistics on seasonal flu, but don't know the real number for the exact same reason - those with mild symptoms are unknown to authorities.

Covid has a microscope over it, figuratively speaking, so the reporting on it vs flu should be more accurate.

[TeePee]

Death rate is uncertain at the moment, but it's clear that it is higher than seasonal flu.

Not necessarily.

But it is important to recognize that it isn't seasonal flu. Flu will kill hundreds of thousands around the world. Coronavirus deaths will be separate and in addition to that. All the controls and quarantine are worth the attempt to prevent that. But this isn't TEOTWAWKI..

[j1979]

Cobra meeting on monday. As usual the lethargic UK govement is one step behind. Why wait until monday ? lets wait until we have a hundred more cases before we try to contain it.

Would be ironic if Boris gets it, after taking back control.

As for thinking death toll is not higher than seasonal flu, one of the reasons is because it's not in the hospitals and old folks homes yet. Typically schools, universities, airports, stadiums, rallies, cinimas, meetings and GP surgeries are the first places new virusus spread, typically places for younger people. Once it's in hospitals, and old folks homes and established, then the death rate percentage will creep up, assuming that no vacine has been released by then.

[Hoonigan]

Cobra meeting on monday. As usual the lethargic UK govement is one step behind. Why wait until monday?

Boris Johnson, in my opinion, comes across as the type that wouldn't give up his weekend unless his life depended on it. He's a lazy sod with very little regard for anyone but himself.

[TeePee]

Cobra meeting on monday. As usual the lethargic UK govement is one step behind. Why wait until monday ? lets wait until we have a hundred more cases before we try to contain it.

Would be ironic if Boris gets it, after taking back control.

As for thinking death toll is not higher than seasonal flu, one of the reasons is because it's not in the hospitals and old folks homes yet. Typically schools, universities, airports, stadiums, rallies, cinimas, meetings and GP surgeries are the first places new virusus spread, typically places for younger people. Once it's in hospitals, and old folks homes and established, then the death rate percentage will creep up, assuming that no vacine has been released by then.

Almost all the deaths in Italy were acquired in hospitals. It's impossible to calculate the mortality rate without data, but so far, outside of China, it's very low, even among confirmed cases.

[g8ina]

with apologies

[j1979]

Almost all the deaths in Italy were acquired in hospitals. It's impossible to calculate the mortality rate without data, but so far, outside of China, it's very low, even among confirmed cases.

They died there, they didn't contract it there.

[j1979]

with apologies

the beard will render it ineffective