Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Who's it going to be Hexites?
Trump or Biden?
Whoever wins, does the USA lose?
And do you have any other predictions or thoughts?
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Trumps going to win again, he's spent time and money putting people where they can do him good..
Whoever gets in after him will have a right mess to clear up though.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Sadly, i've a feeling Trump will win again. It's still "cool" to be anti establishment and self-interested at the moment, and if you liked trump enough to vote for him before you likely still will now, since he's given the impression that he's done what he promised he would, and hasn't really changed as a person/character.
Biden has a better chance than Clinton, given that this time Trump failed in his attempts to thoroughly discredit him (something he sadly succeeded with against Clinton), but as we have seen repeatedly in the UK for the past few years as well, common sense doesn't seem to impact elections that much so who knows!
I have my fingers crossed for Biden though, would like to see him in office.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Biden easy win imo. Trump got lucky last time with many factors aligning for him, I just can't see it happening again. If it does though I'll have lost all hope for the american people.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
I think an old, racist, white guy wins...
Probably Trump.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Well, with so many things uncertain there's one thing that does seem clear so far - the polls/media reports were wrong again.
This was supposed to be a massive landslide for Biden and it's definitely not that.
The media definitely don't do themselves any favour contending with Trump's accusations of 'Fake News' when they just seem to want to tell things as they want them to be instead of how they are.
Maybe it's my age but never have I found my default reaction to news stories to be so cynical.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Polls gave Biden a small but comfortable margin, we know from recent years this means it's likely to be much closer, unfortunately Trump has a fervent bunch of loyalists and the loss of Florida has put the race at a position where it's his election to be lost, not Biden's to win. I fear he might just legitimately win again, but even if he doesn't he's made it clear he will contest the result tooth and nail so it's a permanant stain on the US democratic process. Trump has no honour, only self interested and repugnant set of values. I hope he loses, but I blame the Dmeocrats just a smuch for his win. I'm sure Joe Biden is a nice enough guy, but he's 77 and a bit of a wet lettuce, Obama-lite, reheated. If that's the best they can offer, then really they deserve to loose.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
cptwhite_uk
Polls gave Biden a small but comfortable margin, we know from recent years this means it's likely to be much closer, unfortunately Trump has a fervent bunch of loyalists and the loss of Florida has put the race at a position where it's his election to be lost, not Biden's to win. I fear he might just legitimately win again, but even if he doesn't he's made it clear he will contest the result tooth and nail so it's a permanant stain on the US democratic process. Trump has no honour, only self interested and repugnant set of values. I hope he loses, but I blame the Dmeocrats just a smuch for his win. I'm sure Joe Biden is a nice enough guy, but he's 77 and a bit of a wet lettuce, Obama-lite, reheated. If that's the best they can offer, then really they deserve to loose.
I think I saw different polls, the ones I saw essentially had a wide guaranteed victory.
But yes, the fact Trump is sitting in this office is, I believe, not an endorsement of the worst traits of his character, or the man himself, but a reaction to the political nonsense so many find frustrating and exhausting. Trump brings a nonsense all his own, but his persona is being 'no-nonsense' and I think that's what got him elected.
What's the biggest lesson the Democrats/left can learn? Perhaps that they need to stop leaning further and further left and start to come back more to the middle - both in the USA and here in the UK.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-53657174
I guess it's a matter of perspective, yes on the face of it 52% to 44% is a comfortable lead, but it's takes 4% of the population to change vote and it's a tie, and I always factor in that many people who intend to vote for Trump, might not publicly admit it.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
cptwhite_uk
I'm sure Joe Biden is a nice enough guy, but he's 77 and a bit of a wet lettuce, Obama-lite, reheated. If that's the best they can offer, then really they deserve to loose.
It's got to be hard though - these recent elections are not fought on common sense, logic, or even policy - they have been turned into extreme popularity contests based around a few, very controversial and divisive messages. We saw the same in the UK both with Brexit and Boris, and have seen similar patterns in France, Italy and many more countries.
So what can the democrats do about it? They either give in and take the same approach of putting up a popular but very controversial candidate (undermining all their morals and what they stand for), or put up a good solid candidate and hope that common sense wins through all the haze. I for one am happy they have not taken the republican approach here, even if they lose and we end up with 4 more years of Trump.
I really hope this works for them and we can start to turn the tide...politics is pretty horrible at the moment for all concerned, and we desperately need some leaders who can stop this isolationist inflammatory path we've all started down.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
He who shouts loudest usually wins... and Trump is such a bright orange victim of clueless hatred and smear campaigns and fake news, that he can't help but win the peoples' hearts. He just grabs them by the kitten and boom... If they weren't his voters, he'd probably be dating them.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Spud1
It's got to be hard though - these recent elections are not fought on common sense, logic, or even policy - they have been turned into extreme popularity contests based around a few, very controversial and divisive messages. We saw the same in the UK both with Brexit and Boris, and have seen similar patterns in France, Italy and many more countries.
So what can the democrats do about it? They either give in and take the same approach of putting up a popular but very controversial candidate (undermining all their morals and what they stand for), or put up a good solid candidate and hope that common sense wins through all the haze. I for one am happy they have not taken the republican approach here, even if they lose and we end up with 4 more years of Trump.
I really hope this works for them and we can start to turn the tide...politics is pretty horrible at the moment for all concerned, and we desperately need some leaders who can stop this isolationist inflammatory path we've all started down.
Confound such pessimism! What a time to be alive - we not only get to debate but have a say in such issues as brexit.
As for the topic, here's hoping for a republican victory in the presidency and senate, given the remarks made by top democrats regarding US/UK relations - Pelosi, Biden and Obama as well as others of less worth.
It'll also be a delight to see the pollsters get it woefully wrong, again.
J
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
I don't have the first clue who will win. And excluding the no-hope outsiders and considering just the main two, I don't know I much care.
Broadly, I'm a bit more inclined towards the Republican position, but I'm not really convinced Trump is entirely a republican. And I detest the idiot. I'm also not exactly wow'd by Biden. About the positive thing I'd say about Democrats choosing Biden is at least he isn't Clinton.
So overall, my preference would be strongly "neither of the above".
But's what I'd prefer, if it was on offer (neither) if irrelevant because it isn't on offer. What do I think will happen? I think it's still to early to have any reasonable basis to have an opinion.
I think it all depends on, in the key states, a blend of :-
- how big the majority of in-person votes is in each swing state, and
- overall tturnout, and
- how many postal votes there are, and
- how those postal votes break down between the two, and
- if postal votes are enough to overturn the in-person majority, and
- if they are enough tto overturn it, whether they do, and
- and if they do overturn it, whether there are legal challenges, and
- off there are challenges, what the US Supreme Court has to say about it.
I think that covers it. And right now, there are far too. Many known unknowns in there, and there might be some unknown unknowns too.
What is clear, IMHO at least, is that most of the pollsters and talking heads were wrong on many counts. For instance, about Texas going Democrat, and emphatically about it being a "blue wall" result. Also, many nexpected "subgroups" have shown unexpected levels of Trump support, not least Latino's (especially East coast ones) and even African Americans where, contrary to talking head expectations, his support has gone up.
Right now, too many critical states are on a knife-edge, and a lot depends on postal votes favouring Biden, but given the talking heads have been wrrong about so much already, I don't see much reason to have faith in who the postal voters are, and why they're voting by post.
And even if we get past all that, how legal challenges may end up is utterly impossible to call and itvcould be that some of those postal ballots are deemed illegal, or that they aren't, and in a swing state with a marginal result, that might alter the result.
For me to vote in this poll, it needs either a don't know, or don't care option .... or maybe a don't know and don't care option.
Re: Prediction the Winner - Trump vs. Biden - and any other predictions
It's clear that Biden has it now. Wisconsin, Michigan are almost certianly his, unless something strange happens in a recount.
Most remaining votes in Pennsylvania are from Philadelphia where Biden has 77.7% of the vote with 37% remaining, so that could be another 300k votes there plus postals from the whole state. It's touch and go there, but Las Vagas is strongly Biden and is the majority of remining uncounted in Navada. So even without Pennsylvania, Biden should have 270.