Opinions - Nokia and Microsoft only works if Samsung, HTC and LG clear off

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The deal is all about Stephen and Steve and the other handset-makers will eventually give up on WP7.

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Hmm Scott. Whilst we know MS has a long history of stabbing partners in the back, just look at previous music DRM for instance, I don't think they would benefit from getting rid of HTC and Samsung.

I wouldn't call the hardware half arsed either, its easily up there with the average/high end, the thing is the for the platform they wanted to fix certain things, Snapdragon, certain clock speeds etc.

All the differentiatation we've seen so far is screen size (resolution is fixed) stands and speakers really. Oh and AMOLED from samsung. The thing is getting a write once run anywhere platform that keeps the QA costs down means they have to be very similiar in a lot of respects.

As such I can see from Nokia's POV that his comment about Andriod differentiation is utter crap, when its much harder to do that on WP7.

However I don't see what MS would gain by making this deal exclusive. Unless we are going to see a massive price shift in the handsets in 6 months time or something, £100 WP7 would be incredibly tempting, even in its current limited state.

As such I'd have to really disagree, I can't see what MS would get out of an exclusivity deal, Nokia is really loosing the higher end market, they have nothing, Meego is a sick joke which everyone except the most devout fanboy knows, symbian really feels like it was written by some graddies who had no experiance.

If Nokia get a close relationship, help develope ideas on some of the core apps, have access to MS devs working with the unrestricted API, yes, I could see the mutual benefit. But just exclusive, no way!

1. I don't think Nokia would have gone for it unless it was exclusive
2. The WP7 handsets from other OEMs are fine, but I don't think their heart is in it
3. What's good for Nokia is now good for Microsoft in the mobile space and I don't think Microsoft has much to lose by ditching the rest
4. The differentiation comment is not crap if Elop really knows the other guys are history on WP7
5. What's good for Nokia is now good for Microsoft
6. What's good for Nokia is now good for Microsoft

WP7 - to me at least - makes a whole lot of sense for Nokia. After all, Nokia seem to pitch quite hard for the businessman's dollar and so WP7 is probably the best competition for Blackberry.
(Oh, and before the iOS fanboys dive in - don't - iPhone integration with Exchange etc sucks badly. iPhones are for the marketing department).

What's it going to take for them to kill that stinking corpse that is Symbian - guys it's just plain awful, let it die with a pinprick of dignity please! I'll admit there was some nice bits of my old N95 that I liked, (mainly the hardware design), but the rest of the software was just too awful.

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Originally Posted by TheAnimus

Meego is a sick joke which everyone except the most devout fanboy knows

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Oh dear, yet another "ooo, isn't Meego awful" jibe. I don't count myself as a fanboy but I've got Meego dual booting with Ubuntu NR on an Acer Aspire One, and it's the Meego partition that usually gets booted. I just find it a hassle-free experience (although I had some real "fun" with the update process when I first put v1.0 on there), and it's pretty easy to just get done what I want. :p So yes, I'm a bit disappointed - would have liked to perhaps see a Meego successor to my old Nokia 770 internet tablet.

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Originally Posted by TheAnimus

symbian really feels like it was written by some graddies who had no experiance.

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See, it's not just me who hates Symbian! :D

I don't think I'll ever buy a WP7 device (too late for me, too much time invested in Android) but I'll be fascinated to see if Nokia can generate a couple of good high-end smartphones. (Liked my N95, and I've still got a Nokia 2330 dumbphone - it's a great little device).

Thank you for the analysis, i agree that nokia will end up squeezing the other win7 players out, otherwise the move will fail to differentiate them from the 'competition'.

This remains an utterly cretinous move however.

Meego no longer a platform = stupid stupid idea!
No QT on nokia Win7 phones = stupid stupid idea!

How does nokia manage to be this incompetent? It has thrown away its one real differentiation in owning the most open platform, and it has thrown away its one real developer advantage in using QT's cross-platform abilities.

I would still prefer to have a Meego device but after today's symphony of unmitigated cretinism i simply don't trust Nokia to execute it competently. What will i buy next? Android probably.

Nokia must get exclusive for Microsoft WP7 or else it is really just plain stupid.

Given there is no real competitor against business users, they can try to attack that market but I doubt they will. Nokia and Microsoft wants the consumer market.

It's a quick-fix and temporary one at that.

WP7 is nowhere near as good as Symbian 3 from what I've seen. But it might be easier platform on which to develop an eco-system at present.

be in no doubt that symbian's only future is to be squeezed downward through the developing markets until it reaches the $5 handset sold in a Bangalore market stall.

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Originally Posted by Scott B

2. The WP7 handsets from other OEMs are fine, but I don't think their heart is in it

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Their heart doesn't have to be in it, they just have to pick the components from an approved list and stick it together!

But yes by letting Nokia access hidden APIs, develop unique and better apps, and have a say in future hardware choices then I can't see other partners hanging around.

Shame, I got my first HTC Windows smartphone many moons ago...

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Originally Posted by Scott B

1. I don't think Nokia would have gone for it unless it was exclusive
2. The WP7 handsets from other OEMs are fine, but I don't think their heart is in it
3. What's good for Nokia is now good for Microsoft in the mobile space and I don't think Microsoft has much to lose by ditching the rest
4. The differentiation comment is not crap if Elop really knows the other guys are history on WP7
5. What's good for Nokia is now good for Microsoft
6. What's good for Nokia is now good for Microsoft

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1) why would MS care? Would Nokia on exclusive really be better than all the others? Didn't we see some 4% market share already, thats not bad for a 'new' product. How long would the exclusive peroid last, and are nokia really not awfully desperate right now?
2) What would they be doing if their heart was in it thou, Nokia haven't made a peice of hardware that made me think "mmmmmm" in ages.
3) Its hard to say really, we don't know exact figures, but I can't see why its in MSs interest to not have competition in the hardware production, that is why they beat apple on the PC.
4) Very true!
5) Is it thou, has there been any stock exchange or is it just a case of selling more WP7 licesenses and AppStore commisions.

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Originally Posted by TheAnimus

1) why would MS care? Would Nokia on exclusive really be better than all the others? Didn't we see some 4% market share already, thats not bad for a 'new' product. How long would the exclusive peroid last, and are nokia really not awfully desperate right now?
2) What would they be doing if their heart was in it thou, Nokia haven't made a peice of hardware that made me think "mmmmmm" in ages.
3) Its hard to say really, we don't know exact figures, but I can't see why its in MSs interest to not have competition in the hardware production, that is why they beat apple on the PC.
4) Very true!
5) Is it thou, has there been any stock exchange or is it just a case of selling more WP7 licesenses and AppStore commisions.

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Glad you like my number thing :)

1. I just don't think the deal would have happened - Nokia cares.
2. Most people reckoned the N8 would've rocked with a better OS. Nokia is clearly Microsoft's favoured partner now, while Android handsets are selling in far greater volumes and you don't even have to pay a license fee. If you were Mr Samsung or Mr HTC, which would you be focusing on?
3. Android is the Windows of mobile
4. Hence point 1.
5. I think Microsoft realises mobile isn't about selling licenses, it's about install-base and consequent services revenues. I think WP7 gets a bigger install-base from a fully committed and supported Nokia than from a distracted Nokia and three others making up the numbers.

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Originally Posted by TheAnimus

1) why would MS care? Would Nokia on exclusive really be better than all the others? Didn't we see some 4% market share already, thats not bad for a 'new' product. How long would the exclusive peroid last, and are nokia really not awfully desperate right now?
2) What would they be doing if their heart was in it thou, Nokia haven't made a peice of hardware that made me think "mmmmmm" in ages.
3) Its hard to say really, we don't know exact figures, but I can't see why its in MSs interest to not have competition in the hardware production, that is why they beat apple on the PC.
4) Very true!
5) Is it thou, has there been any stock exchange or is it just a case of selling more WP7 licesenses and AppStore commisions.

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No 2 is so soooooo true!

Scott yup very handy.

1) I just don't see thou why MS would sacrifice that much, to me Nokia is really taking on water, they know their sinking and their balance sheet for investment from R&D vs delivery looks frankly awful.
2) I never used an N8 so I can't comment, but I can say on paper, it didn't wow me, I think I might be quite average in this viewpoint
3) True, but Apple practically went bust a while back due to their lack of diversity, innovation was happening so fast and hard but nothing worked on their closed platform, it was too expensive to dev on, and own for a business. Given the number that business were buying the economies of scale really did just drive the PC prices straight down. But more importantly it was the competition!
4) I do see the logic, but I don't think it has the weight to be the smoking gun.
5) The thing is I just can't imagine that they would see a massive surge vs having many vendors making them. MS's ideal world would be Nokia working on it 100% and HTC 100% etc. Nokia is in such a poor state they might be able to push them into been the lacky with little in return. Maybe cheaper licensing for Nokia for 2 years or similar, that would be enough.

I guess it comes down to my thinking that Nokia right now is really in trouble. Microsoft aren't. They've spent a lot of money on the new phone strategy but so far WP7 has made an inroad, a small one, but I'd guess its on target, its the feeling I'm getting as a dev, the fact they are relaxed about the 2011 updates etc.

Its going to be fun to see who's right! What do you say to a gentlemanly wager, no exclusive agreement by 2012 1st Feb I win, the exclusivity happens, you win. A bottle of "Old Pulteney" as the stake :)

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Originally Posted by TheAnimus

Its going to be fun to see who's right! What do you say to a gentlemanly wager, no exclusive agreement by 2012 1st Feb I win, the exclusivity happens, you win. A bottle of "Old Pulteney" as the stake :)

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You're on, although I'm more of an Islay man myself.

There is one problem though - the exclusivity may never be formally announced. I think it will just evolve as the others stop bringing out new handsets.

We'll have to haggle over the definition in a year's time.

Fair enough an Islay for you then!

The defenition... They are due for a new platform for WP7 some time soon, probably in Q4 I would hazard a dumb guess it will co-inside with flash and silverlight in IE. Currently the silverlight support is limited, it can only run on its own, not embedded in a page.

Now I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to move to a faster processor, the old snapdragon thing, whilst very economical isn't going to grab headlines, whilst they don't want to fragment I wouldn't be surprised to see something like an HD moniker or similar.

I think Nokia might do that first, but no more than 3 months later HTC or someone will follow.

Also HTC will keep shipping its windows 7 phones, dell, samsung et al who only produced one, well they just dipped their toe, they might withdraw on their own accord, but HTC no, they will definitely stay.

That said I do have this horrible feeling you might be on to something and there is some un-communicated, underhand thing going on, and nokia is going to get consumed by MS.

So shall we say no WP7 launches between November this year and Feb 2012 means the OEM has given up on WP7?

I agree that HTC will probably be the most reluctant to go, especially given its long history with Windows Mobile.

Microsoft will continue to insist it wants the others to hang around and Nokia will continue to say it welcomes their contribution to the ecosystem. It's called PR ;)