News - iPad 3 rumoured to launch this Autumn

[HEXUS]

Apple has ‘surprise’ planned.

Read more.

[crossy]

if the rumour proves true the iPad 2 will be ‘old' incredibly quickly and even if the rumour isn't true...won't it put fanboys off investing in the second generation product if a vastly superior offering is just around the corner?

You haven't met that many Apple fanboys then? I'll comfortably predict that we'll have the usual salesgasm (long lines at midnight outside Apple Stores) and then another six months later (or more likely about Christmas time) for "next year's model".

If Apple is planning another refresh of the iPad in 2011, it would seem to be aware that companies like HP are aggressively trying to grab a chuck of the lucrative tablet market so it better not relax just yet- despite having around 95 percent of the current tablet market.

I honestly can't see Apple holding onto anything near this amount of market share - especially when the tablet-optimised version of Android hits the streets. I'll also be very interested to see what HP can do with their WebOS tablet - let's be honest - they've had enough aborted tries at this form factor!
I've also got to wonder whether this tablet mania isn't a short term thing - the same way that the "gotta have a netbook" one was before it. I keep seeing comments along the lines of "tablets are nice, but too expensive for me, prefer a laptop at the same price".

[Rob_B]

mobile-device.biz ... where did that come from?!

I'd take this with a pinch of salt, regardless of the Android tablets in the works the iPad offers a familiar system, with a HUGE install base & a bit of 'exclusivity' for users. That's not to say they're WAAY overpriced though!

I'd imagine the iPad 2 comes out & prices of the iPad 1 drop to sweep up anyone who wants an iPad but could never afford one @ £400.
Sure Android will also pick up some of those people (especially if the pricing comes in around £250 but that's debatable for a decent tablet) but I see no major reason for Apple to upgrade the HW, they've certainly never rushed anything out in the iPhone range & it has served them well to do that so far, it's not like handset manufacturers haven't been agrresive trying to beat the iPhone is it?!

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Android is the second most popular smartphone OS ATM.

[Rob_B]

Android is the second most popular smartphone OS ATM.

You've lost me with that post?

If you have two tablets, an iPad & an Android tablet, same cost, no major difference in tech then I'd wager the majority of people would want the iPad. By reducing the price of the iPad when the iPad2 launches (as they did with iPhones) then they open up the lower end of their market to new users.

I think many of those users would likely go the the 'older' iPad even if it was a little bit more expensive than the Android alternative.
Apple has no need just yet to release an iPad 3 until they've hoovered up all those people waiting for the iPad price to drop.
Of course I imagine it is in the development stages but Apple have never exactly been ahead of the game with HW specs, more playing catch up a few months later but it works for them.

[aidanjt]

Apple doesn't do 'price drops', it's too unhip for them.

[Rob_B]

Apple doesn't do 'price drops', it's too unhip for them.

I beg to differ

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

certainly never rushed anything out in the iPhone range & it has served them well to do that so far, it's not like handset manufacturers haven't been agrresive trying to beat the iPhone is it?!

You've lost me with that post?

http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/...rcent-in-2010/

[Rob_B]

But iOS sales are still increasing too, was it 60m they sold last year? Expected to beat that this year as well!

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

But iOS sales are still increasing too, was it 60m they sold last year? Expected to beat that this year as well!

However,Android sales are increasing at a much greater rate.



Android went from barely having 4% market share of the smartphone sales in 2009 to around 23% of the market in one year. iOS went from only 14.4% to 15.7% in the same period.

The current version of Android is not even meant for tablets and when Android 3.0 is released you are going to see it taking a substantial percentage of the market.

[Rob_B]

Very true, however it doesn't mean it will continue at such a rate, it'll struggle to match that jump I'd think, iOS already had the share, will that decrese?...

I'm sure Android 3 will be better for tablets but will it match iOS? (who knows?) will it make an Android tablet the 'must have' tablet as the iPad (arguably) is? Does it/will it have the same loyal user base willing to spend millions through the app store/market?

I think the estimates for the ongoing increase in iOS market share is exaggerated however also think that Android 3 tablets won't be as much of a blow to Apple as everyone thinks. So will things just even out? Probably, and at the expense of everyone apart from Android/iOS (although that share of the market is of course quite small)

[Unique]

i'm waiting on ipad4 as i hear it's going to be better than ipad3

[crossy]

I'd take this with a pinch of salt, regardless of the Android tablets in the works the iPad offers a familiar system, with a HUGE install base & a bit of 'exclusivity' for users. That's not to say they're WAAY overpriced though!

iOS is only a "familiar system" if you've already got an iPod Touch or iPhone - and I would have thought that adding a 'droid pad to an existing droid phone is equally as likely/sensible as adding iPad to iPhone. I'd also argue the "exclusivity" tag, but that's opinion.

If you have two tablets, an iPad & an Android tablet, same cost, no major difference in tech then I'd wager the majority of people would want the iPad.

Sorry, cost-equivalency is very unlikely - like "aidanjt" pointed out - Apple are scrupulous in maintaining their "premium" branding. Or put it another way - you can either be "exclusive" or "well priced", but not both. In which case it's going to come down to "can I do X with this"- and I'd politely suggest that there's little of worth that iPad can do that - for example - Galaxy Tab can't.

Very true, however it doesn't mean it will continue at such a rate, it'll struggle to match that jump I'd think, iOS already had the share, will that decrese?...

Every commentator is saying that Android and WebOS' entry into the tablet market will hit iOS' share - the US$64M question is by how much ... Apple fans are saying 5-10% tops, whereas the anti-Apple groups seem to be projecting a worst case of iOS only holding 25%. I wouldn't like to say which is these is closer to the eventual truth.

I'm sure Android 3 will be better for tablets but will it match iOS? (who knows?) will it make an Android tablet the 'must have' tablet as the iPad (arguably) is? Does it/will it have the same loyal user base willing to spend millions through the app store/market?

I remain to be convinced that "app store spend" is necessarily a good measure of market. After all, a device that needs $50+ spent on it to get the majority of folks accommodated is going to be perceived as "expensive" and avoided.

I think the estimates for the ongoing increase in iOS market share is exaggerated however also think that Android 3 tablets won't be as much of a blow to Apple as everyone thinks. So will things just even out? Probably, and at the expense of everyone apart from Android/iOS (although that share of the market is of course quite small)

Mostly fair comments - although I can't help wishing HP well with WebOS - get a bit tired of the assumption that this'll be a two-way market - iOS or Android. One problem with Android is that - consistently - it's very good at growing it's share. Look at the number of phone activations, and the growth of market place (6 fold - although it's still only half the size of the [older] Apple app store). I've no reason to think that this behaviour won't be repeated - to a degree - for tablets.

And there's the problem for the Android tablet makers - they either need to make something technically better than iPad 3, or make it roughly equivalent, but cheaper. I think we'll see both approaches - established phone makers like Samsung going for the technical advantage whereas non-phone makers, like Archos/Viewsonic/etc will probably be very price aware. One thing's for sure - selling iPad3 isn't going to be the "no brainer" that iPad1 was - Apple are going to have to work for each sale.

[Rob_B]

iOS is only a "familiar system" if you've already got an iPod Touch or iPhone - and I would have thought that adding a 'droid pad to an existing droid phone is equally as likely/sensible as adding iPad to iPhone. I'd also argue the "exclusivity" tag, but that's opinion.

Well, exclusivity is down to individuals' own perception of the brand but it's arguably more exclusive than Android

Sorry, cost-equivalency is very unlikely - like "aidanjt" pointed out - Apple are scrupulous in maintaining their "premium" branding. Or put it another way - you can either be "exclusive" or "well priced", but not both. In which case it's going to come down to "can I do X with this"- and I'd politely suggest that there's little of worth that iPad can do that - for example - Galaxy Tab can't.

But the current tabs are the same price (ie the Galaxy Tab on launch) or cheap but rubbish (ie 90% of Android tablets on the market!) A new shiny OS won't automatically make the HW any better. Apple DO reduce pricing on older HW when the new version is out. Granted not by a lot but it does happen (see every iPhone launch since the 3G) I'm not sold on the idea that the Android tablet pricing is going to be as low as some people think.

Every commentator is saying that Android and WebOS' entry into the tablet market will hit iOS' share - the US$64M question is by how much ... Apple fans are saying 5-10% tops, whereas the anti-Apple groups seem to be projecting a worst case of iOS only holding 25%. I wouldn't like to say which is these is closer to the eventual truth.

Well yeah, it's all just opinion but if the pricing difference isn't too great then I think Apple could easily hold their own.

I remain to be convinced that "app store spend" is necessarily a good measure of market. After all, a device that needs $50+ spent on it to get the majority of folks accommodated is going to be perceived as "expensive" and avoided.

You mean like the 2million iPads they sold in two months on it's release (5.5million upto Jan)
Or the tens of millions of iPhones out there?
What I really meant by that comment was the install base is massive, it has a strong following & Android has to compete with that in it's own, fragmented way. Apple has a massive head start.

Mostly fair comments - although I can't help wishing HP well with WebOS - get a bit tired of the assumption that this'll be a two-way market - iOS or Android. One problem with Android is that - consistently - it's very good at growing it's share. Look at the number of phone activations, and the growth of market place (6 fold - although it's still only half the size of the [older] Apple app store). I've no reason to think that this behaviour won't be repeated - to a degree - for tablets.

Oh totally, I'm not big fan of Android myself (although I own one) - I can't see 3.0 changing my mind without some amazing turn of events but I am happy to be proved wrong. Obviously growth for the market has a limit, Android has gone from nothing to huge quickly as there were no real alternatives to iOS (BB/WM - pah!) but it has to tail off at some point. Tablets have been seen as the thing to push sales further & no doubt they will but that said tablets are still a new-ish tech so I don't think they'll be stealing sales from Apple, rather they'll both be expanding into the market - Apple having a head start though.

And there's the problem for the Android tablet makers - they either need to make something technically better than iPad 3, or make it roughly equivalent, but cheaper. I think we'll see both approaches - established phone makers like Samsung going for the technical advantage whereas non-phone makers, like Archos/Viewsonic/etc will probably be very price aware. One thing's for sure - selling iPad3 isn't going to be the "no brainer" that iPad1 was - Apple are going to have to work for each sale.

Yep I agree, from the crap that has been churned out so far though there aren't many/any decent cheap devices, anything else has a massive price attached (I'm looking at you Galaxy Tab) Granted that price has now fallen as Samsung realised people were just buying iPads instead but it only goes back to what I said before....
I think Android tabs will be low powered crap like they are now, albeit with a fancier OS. Or as expensive (or close to) an iPad, in which case the majority of the consumers with ~£400 to spend will go with Apple.

Of course this is all opinion & guesswork, shame I don't get paid for it like these people making most of the pedictions do!

[TooNice]

The 1st Gen (2G) iPhone was heavily discounted (down to around £169) shortly before the release of the 2nd Gen iPhone. I've not upgraded since, and mainly because we've not seen a discount of that scale since. I'd be really surprised if this rumour is true though. If confirmed officially, I am quite sure that it -will- affect sales of the 2nd Gen. Contrary to popular beliefs, not everyone with an Apple product upgrade on every turns. I don't know anyone else with a 2G iPhone, but I certainly know a number with 3G, and 3GS.

The question I suppose is whether the market of people who can afford to upgrade every 6 months is big enough to warrant the loss sales from people who decide to skip on a generation. If a device is only released every year (e.g. iPhone) then people may upgrade simply because they don't want to go two years without a shiny toy. But if every 6 months, some people may wait 12 months, then decide, well actually, they don't mind waiting another 6 months (and maybe even another 6 months after that).

Psychologically, it's probably easier to skip a 'generation' of product if you know that you would have to wait less time for an even shinier toy.

[3dcandy]

The 1st Gen (2G) iPhone was heavily discounted (down to around £169) shortly before the release of the 2nd Gen iPhone. I've not upgraded since, and mainly because we've not seen a discount of that scale since. I'd be really surprised if this rumour is true though. If confirmed officially, I am quite sure that it -will- affect sales of the 2nd Gen. Contrary to popular beliefs, not everyone with an Apple product upgrade on every turns. I don't know anyone else with a 2G iPhone, but I certainly know a number with 3G, and 3GS.

The question I suppose is whether the market of people who can afford to upgrade every 6 months is big enough to warrant the loss sales from people who decide to skip on a generation. If a device is only released every year (e.g. iPhone) then people may upgrade simply because they don't want to go two years without a shiny toy. But if every 6 months, some people may wait 12 months, then decide, well actually, they don't mind waiting another 6 months (and maybe even another 6 months after that).

Psychologically, it's probably easier to skip a 'generation' of product if you know that you would have to wait less time for an even shinier toy.

As most iPhone contracts are now 24 months I know a fair few people not willing to update to an iPhone 4 yet from their 3GS. Plus an equal amount fed up with Apple's closed ecosystem when an Android phone does most of the same at arguably a cheaper price. Some aspire to the latest kit, but practical reasons mean they don't until it is a no-brainer...