News - IDC predicts Windows Phone will overtake Apple

[HEXUS]

Recent IDC report IDC sees 2011 smartphone market growing by 50 percent.

Read more.

[bobharvey]

Nother triumph of futuremaths and spurious accuracy.

Windows will have 61.7% of the 2011-2015 market? Not 67.2% or 66.998% then? I might have paid half an earsful of attention if they had said "around 60%". but 61.7%. Bravo.

Tosh and widdle. I can make up numbers too.

I have no idea if I will have a job in 3 months time. How on earth can these people know with such mind-shattering accuracy what phone I will buy by then. Have they factored in earthquakes, radiation leaks, epidemics of influenza, changes and upheavels in political systems and the collapse of the euro against a basket of african currencies? Thought not.

How is that people in padded chairs get paid to trot out this unsupportable load of old todd on a weekly basis?

I think Hexus should put a note in the diary to check these numbers in 3 years time, and then interview the wierdwit who came up with them.

[aidanjt]

How is that people in padded chairs get paid to trot out this unsupportable load of old todd on a weekly basis?

You're talking as if economics is a real science, rather than a tool to manipulate capitalists into throwing all their money up the great big ponzi banking ladder.

[Scott B]

I think Hexus should put a note in the diary to check these numbers in 3 years time, and then interview the wierdwit who came up with them.

Done

[TheAnimus]

You're talking as if economics is a real science, rather than a tool to manipulate capitalists into throwing all their money up the great big ponzi banking ladder.

You're talking as if this is economics.

[aidanjt]

You're talking as if this is economics.

Eh, economists and speculators spew out crap like this *all* the time.

[Zhaoman]

Windows will have 61.7% of the 2011-2015 market?

The third column, CAGR, is Compound Annual Growth Rate not market share mate.

But yeah totally agree with your point. Psychology studies are another thing that should be nuked from orbit: RESEARCHERS HAVE DISCOVERED THAT PEOPLE WHO HAVE THEIR HOUSE REPOSSESSED ARE 29% MORE LIKELY TO SUFFER FROM DEPRESSION!!!

[The Hand]

Those rumours floating around about Apple broadening their iPhone product range in the summer, will probably force these predictions to be "clarified" in the near future! By 2015 I imagine something big will happen, like Google devouring RIM/Blackberry which will completely shake things up again.

[TheAnimus]

Eh, economists and speculators spew out crap like this *all* the time.

As much as 'scientists' spew about things about beauty creams.

A charlatan is a charlatan no matter what dress they may claim to wear.

[crossy]

I don't claim any expertise, but I just can't see that much growth potential. As far as I can see:
1. Businesses will probably go Android, WP7, or possibly WebOS. Makes sense because they're the easiest to slot into a corporate environment;
2. The demographic that is buying iPhones will still continue to do so. Likewise the Blackberry crowd will stay brand loyal;
3. Folks who are on Symbian now will probably move to iPhone or Android. Judging by the way folks on the Nokia support forums are talking, they won't be staying brand loyal.
So if those assumptions are correct then the only way that WP7 will grow exponentially (like IDC says) is for businesses to flock to it in droves - ignoring Blackberry, Android, WebOS and iPhone. Not likely in my humble opinion.
Of course I'm going to claim that my predictions are probably accurate to about 48.245% with a potential error of plus or minus 48.21% (see - I can tell complete lies with meaningless numbers too!)

A charlatan is a charlatan no matter what dress they may claim to wear.

Nah, that's not a charlatan, that's a transvestite you've got there.
(or a female scientist - sorry about that omission)

[aidanjt]

As much as 'scientists' spew about things about beauty creams.

A charlatan is a charlatan no matter what dress they may claim to wear.

There's a considerable difference: 'scientists' who spew things about beauty products are very much the minority, and employees of the vanity industry, further, the claims are regularly debunked by real scientists as part of the peer review process. In economics, they're all in on the scheme.

[TheAnimus]

There's a considerable difference: 'scientists' who spew things about beauty products are very much the minority, and employees of the vanity industry, further, the claims are regularly debunked by real scientists as part of the peer review process. In economics, they're all in on the scheme.

Some times you really don't have a clue about the things you post about. Right now you've taken the Gillian Mckeith of this world, and extrapolated to say that they are all that science is about, she is after all a Dr, apparently.

Yet she is (I want to watch my words carefully here after reading some of Bad Science's stories) considered by some, to be a complete joke a mockery of everything it stands for.

These types of analysts are the same to economists. Economists are afterall just practicing an applied form of statistics that captures human behavior.

[aidanjt]

These types of analysts are the same to economists.

These types of analysis are par for the course.

Economists are afterall just practicing an applied form of statistics that captures human behavior.

So are psychologists. Supposition is supposition, no matter how much math you dress it up with. It's not science. It's a scam, parading fiction as fact to gain advantage by manipulation as well as any priest.