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Thread: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

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    SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    Report prediction applies to "almost all storage" over four year deployment period.
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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    Probably at the low end (i.e.for what most average-Joe laptops need). High end, spinny disks will be round for a few years I reckon.

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by wasabi View Post
    Probably at the low end (i.e.for what most average-Joe laptops need). High end, spinny disks will be round for a few years I reckon.
    I would have thought the other way round. Probably the biggest saving would be in duplicate servers, as the higher speed of flash storage would allow the same drive to service many more concurrent users, but this doesn't really affect low-end purchasing decisions. Cooling, power, building and maintenance costs are included in the costs to a datacentre, and they affect them far more than my PC (or to be honest, I ignore them and just think about purchase cost - but I bet I am not alone).
    Last edited by Brian224; 29-12-2014 at 01:58 PM. Reason: Removed duplicate full stop

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    Yes, when maintenance costs are factored in, then the cheaper, but more prone to failure system will have its TCO raise a lot more. Every HDD failure in a datacentre or office is employee time taken to fix/wait for the fix.

    This isn't relevant for cheap consumer equipment, where the lowest price will still win. Even so, small-capacity flash storage is winning in some devices - Chromebooks for example. The cloud storage they use is probably still HDD based though.

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    A fully flash based data centre will enhance application design which has been hobbled by mechanical storage, says the research firm. "Most of the problems in operating current applications are storage related, and almost all the constraints in application design are storage related," asserts Wikibon. Moving to flash will help fix this problematic impact on businesses and we could see new kinds of applications emerge.
    Colour me doubtful about these statements on a couple of levels. For a start a data centre app backend is usually (there are exceptions) backended by some substantial slab of SAN-based storage - and all the SAN devices I've come across cache pretty aggressively and RAID like crazy, so I'm dubious that moving from HDD to SSD will necessarily be a big deal. I also remember a storage guy telling me that his fancy box was pretty clever at optimising requests to make sure that best use was made of head movements etc. But if your app is based on many small (blade?) servers then sure, going SSD makes a lot of sense.

    And while I agree that there's scope for "better" apps if we can increase the performance of the storage component, the apps I've come across invariably need more storage (usual) and/or faster data commits. SSD's have smoking read access, but aren't write accesses comparatively slow?

    Now for consumer SSD's I see a rosy future - personally when the price of a 1TB+ SSD falls below £150 (list) then I see all desktops and laptops shipping with SSDs rather than HDD's. Two of the four laptops in this house are SSD-booting, with one of the two desktops. Drop the price of 1TB+ SSDs and I'm absolutely convinced that we'll go 100% SSD.

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    crossy, what's the boot time for your ssd laptops from power on to windows desktop fully loaded?

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    On Windows 8 it's about 5 Seconds for me. Was about 10 on a hard drive.
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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    "Wikibon says that flash prices are down and will continue to fall sharply due to consumer demand."
    Call me a noob guys but demand is the cause for falling prices or increase in supply and competition? How does this work anyway?

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    Hmmmmm. I smell some bull.

    SSDs are just allowing for more papering over the cracks and they don't actually sort out the main storage issues. Almost all workloads the ratio of reads/writes is huge and memory is local, unless you need the writes to be atomic.

    TBH there is no disk IO problem, just a problem with el crapola software or inept DBAs.

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by george1976 View Post
    "Wikibon says that flash prices are down and will continue to fall sharply due to consumer demand."
    Call me a noob guys but demand is the cause for falling prices or increase in supply and competition? How does this work anyway?
    Well, it is consumer demand, but I guess attributing it just to that is a tad simplistic. It is, of course, a mix of factors, not least of which are the development path of a new technology, and economies of scale. The way a new product develops tends to go through phases, including early adopters prepared to pay premium prices, but eventually, with that segment saturated, manufacturers go after lower price points, lower unit margins and volume sales. At the same time, consumer demand picks up because of falling prices, meaning production has to ramp up, meaning you get economies of scake in production, so prices can fall yet further, and eventually you end up with a product that is effectively commodity-priced.

    And it's circular.

    Without falling prices, demand will always be restrained. We can see that with pricing on everything from Patek Philippe watches to Aston Martin cars. And, of course, sometimes manufacturers deliberately hold prices high to give a 'premium' marketing edge, working high margin/low volume, rather than high volume/low margin. And if demand is low, whether deliberate or not, you then can't exploit otherwise available economies of scale.

    So yeah, it's consumer demand? But indirectly, via various mechanisms.

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by gwp View Post
    crossy, what's the boot time for your ssd laptops from power on to windows desktop fully loaded?
    Kind of difficult to say because both SSD'd laptops are (a) very old (Centrino and Core2Duo respectively) and (b) Have multiple accounts - so you've got to select the correct account and slap in the password.

    That said, the Windows7 box goes from cold start to presenting the login in under 10 seconds. The other laptop (running Ubuntu LTS) goes from cold to login in as-near-as-makes-no-difference 5 seconds. Strangely enough the biggest plus for the Windows7 laptop going SSD is that it is a LOT more responsive, with no app taking more than 3 seconds from double click to launched and ready to go.

    In both cases the SSD used is a (comparatively speaking) "ancient" Samsung 830, so if you were using something more modern, and especially a Samsung "Pro" model, then results would be even better.

    If you were using Windows8 rather than 7 then I think you'd be able to shave off a couple of additional seconds on the boot, because W8 supposedly had a lot of tweaks made to decrease it's boot time, and to work better with SSD's.

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    Bull****.

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    I'm doubtful, these figures are based on SSD prices falling through the floor in 2016, while HDD prices remain the same per GB.

    Both statements I feel will be untrue.....
    As soon as 6TB HDDs start shipping en masse, 4TB drives will drop to the current 3TB prices...etc etc So HDD prices will continue to drop steadily.
    Also, I doubt we will be seeing 1TB SSDs for $30 in the next 2 years....

    The numbers all seem wrong to me.
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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    Here's my own prediction


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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    That is just brilliant

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    Re: SSDs to be more economical solution than HDDs by 2016

    Looks like the report is focussing on datacentre costs rather than home costs.
    To put the difference is perspective, one of the arrays at my work cost £90,000 to add 32TB of 2TB 7200 RPM disks with licensing.
    This represented value for money in the specific circumstances under which the additional storage was bought.
    I'd be surprised if there isn't even more expensive storage out there that's spinny disk based.
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