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Thread: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

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    Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    Should manufacturers migrate capacity to DRAM production instead?
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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    Oh boy, roll on next year then. The thought of replacing ALL drives with SSD would make me a happy man. Yes I know I'm easily pleased.

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    If only...

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Faiakes View Post
    If only...
    Can't help but feel the same way.

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    Yea, I doubt consumers will feel the benefit much, prices may normalise slightly but the bulk of the price drops will just result in higher profit margins that will be justified by R&D and shareholder demands + other unrelated expensive costs of whatever devices will include said chips.

    Exaggerated example - "Oh, yeah, this device could have been £200 cheaper but we needed the 24k gold bezel to outshine competitors"

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    I have an issue with these figures - a quick glance at NewEgg shows that consumer SSD prices are already at 30 cents/GB - not really possible if NAND Flash is meant to be 30 cents/GB without considering the fixed costs of an SSD....

    I mean, I'm not going to complain if that means consumer SSDs will come down to les than 10 cents/GB, but as things stand the claim of 30 cents/GB for NAND flash doesn't add up....

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    We all know they'll fabricate another story to keep prices inflated.

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    Inb4 pigeon flies into window at NAND factory, all factories must be shut down to apply anti pigeon paint and price sky rockets for the next 5 years.

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    Think I just saw a pig fly past my window.

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    Quote Originally Posted by loftie View Post
    Inb4 pigeon flies into window at NAND factory, all factories must be shut down to apply anti pigeon paint and price sky rockets for the next 5 years.
    Quote Originally Posted by mers View Post
    Think I just saw a pig fly past my window.
    No, he said pigeon. But if a pig hit the window that would be even more chaotic. Like at least 6 years, possibly more depending on the religion of the country where the factory is based.

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    lol, I'll believe it when I see it. I'm sure they'll find some 'issue' that will keep the prices high.

    I'm still waiting on the prices of ssd's to get back to the £50 I bought my current 250gb 850 evo, let alone ram prices (yes I know different)....

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    I love the word could!

    "Nand prices could rise to $100 per gigabyte next year"

    "You could be paid $20 for every gigabyte you install next year"

    And both statements are true - just not very likely!

    Quote Originally Posted by scaryjim View Post
    I have an issue with these figures - a quick glance at NewEgg shows that consumer SSD prices are already at 30 cents/GB - not really possible if NAND Flash is meant to be 30 cents/GB without considering the fixed costs of an SSD....

    I mean, I'm not going to complain if that means consumer SSDs will come down to les than 10 cents/GB, but as things stand the claim of 30 cents/GB for NAND flash doesn't add up....
    Don't spoil a good story with facts!
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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    If operations managers can predict the upcoming significant decline in NAND pricing they could instead migrate manufacturing capacity to making DRAM instead, suggested Handy in his presentation.
    I mean anyone may think that someone wants to build a new PC, but then saw how much DRAM actually is.... sigh.

    There will always be a reason not to lower the pricing, normally, shareholders.

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    Not going to happen. Worst case for them they move to 96 etc layers, and again margins go right back up as all the AI, Datacenter, etc, etc, sucks all the fast stuff up and we're left with junk gaming cards again. Common sense tells them to sell to the highest bidder until some stuff is left on the shelf. THEN, make a $200-900 consumer card

    SSD's will not drop to 10c/GB...LOL. MU is best set to take advantage of the move, as they already went way early, and also left the old process running where samsung/skhynix shut down (no point in spinning up really, so MU has this mostly to themselves with whatever margin they choose) until DDR4 & GDDR5 die it seems mostly theirs. It would cost more to spin up old fabs than they'd make before both move on to pasture so MU make a good move in both ways, by keep old tech flowing (fabs at full run) and making leap to mostly new tech (taking slight hit a while back in prep for new tech paying off a few years later), and it's paying off now and will for the next few years. At that point poeple will be buying $16K enterprise 3dxpoint MU drives (now that we can move forward) and the market will wake up and price the stock at $120-$150 before realizing it's really going $150-200 like NV as markets are opening for both with large TAM's making them totally different companies today (not a PC memory stick company for MU, and not a gaming card company for NV today ethier). MU lowest analyst $64? high way over 120...LOL. They'll get it soon.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/financials?p=MU
    They literally quadruple their PROFIT Q vs. Q. and doubled from most of their best Q's ~2007 when the stock was about the same price, much weaker company, 20+ players (now like 3), etc etc. This company should be $150 especially with the 10B share buyback coming. Their TAM use to be gamers, but now it's gamer, visual, cars, AI, Gas, Oil, VR, RT, Medical, and on and on. It's getting difficult to justify selling a card to a gamer at ~40-60% margin on the gpu, when you can sell the same to content/enterprise etc customers who will pay 10-20x consumers for a few extra special features. Can't blame business for making money ASAP, it's their job and pays for the R&D that bleed down to the rest of us a year or two later.

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    Quote Originally Posted by scaryjim View Post
    I have an issue with these figures - a quick glance at NewEgg shows that consumer SSD prices are already at 30 cents/GB - not really possible if NAND Flash is meant to be 30 cents/GB without considering the fixed costs of an SSD....

    I mean, I'm not going to complain if that means consumer SSDs will come down to les than 10 cents/GB, but as things stand the claim of 30 cents/GB for NAND flash doesn't add up....
    There diff whole seller buyer vs retailer seller

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    Re: Analyst: NAND pricing could hit 8 cents per gigabyte next year

    Quote Originally Posted by nobodyspecial View Post
    SSD's will not drop to 10c/GB...LOL.
    They didn't say SSD's will drop to 10c/GB, they said NAND flash would. Those are not the same things, they all but spelt out the distinction in the article.
    Quote Originally Posted by Agent View Post
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