Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tabbykatze
It fascinates me when people say we will be better off on WTO or that they welcome it...
It fascinates me when people say they know, with any certainty at all, whether we'll be better off or not, especially when it's based on a complex statistical analysis, that generates some assumptions that are fed into gravity econometric models, when I'd bet the vast, vast majority of people relying on it to form an opinion haven't looked at the statistical basis, or the econometrics, and very likely wouldn't understand either, if they had.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Saracen999
It fascinates me when people say they know, with any certainty at all, whether we'll be better off or not, especially when it's based on a complex statistical analysis, that generates some assumptions that are fed into gravity econometric models, when I'd bet the vast, vast majority of people relying on it to form an opinion haven't looked at the statistical basis, or the econometrics, and very likely wouldn't understand either, if they had.
But their favourite talking heads hath spoken!
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Saracen999
Proof, I guess, that analogies only get us so far when it's not even clear what the bus is.
It's big and red and has wheels on it and they go round and round, round and round.... ;)
EDIT: BTW the bus was intended to be a metaphor for the entire UK with us as passengers and the PM/Parliament as the driver, not necessarily just the economy.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
The problem with "waiting to see the effect" is that there are only 42 days left. Businesses can't react that quickly. With no sign of a deal, they now have to assume that we will leave with no deal, which is why they are making these preparations.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
For my employer the issue isn't a no deal Brexit, it's not knowing if that's what it'll be until the last minute.
We can adapt to any kind of Brexit with a few months notice, but anything other than "nothing really changes" is going to cause us pain for the first year at least.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
As the saying goes “Hope for the best, plan for the worst.” It would be foolhardy not to plan for the possibility of everything going pear-shaped.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Making people redundant to make a political point. Well done David. Please go live in your beloved EU, you're not wanted here.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Saracen999
It fascinates me when people say they know, with any certainty at all, whether we'll be better off or not, especially when it's based on a complex statistical analysis, that generates some assumptions that are fed into gravity econometric models, when I'd bet the vast, vast majority of people relying on it to form an opinion haven't looked at the statistical basis, or the econometrics, and very likely wouldn't understand either, if they had.
I'm not sure whether you're making a point or being facetious to insult. Pretty much no country trades on WTO because it is dire.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tabbykatze
Pretty much no country trades on WTO because it is dire.
Pretty much none of them other than just about all of them outside of the EU?
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
aidanjt
Pretty much none of them other than just about all of them outside of the EU?
Erm, no.
IIRC there's only something like two countries that depend solely on WTO terms, they all depend on various agreements, FTA's, and other treaties.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
aidanjt
Pretty much none of them other than just about all of them outside of the EU?
1 country trades on purely WTO rules: Mauritania. But they have 'preferential' arrangements with certain countries, including the EU, where their exports are not tariffed, but they can add tariffs to incoming goods.
All other countries in the world have FTAs with at least 1 other country or trading bloc.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
gagaga
Making people redundant to make a political point. Well done David. Please go live in your beloved EU, you're not wanted here.
Err... not sure which article you've been reading but it's certainly not the one just posted on Hexus :rolleyes:
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
His #FBPE tag says pretty much all you need to go, doesn't it?
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
aidanjt
Pretty much none of them other than just about all of them outside of the EU?
I guess you've never researched this andjust read the daily fail because you are almost completely and utterly wrong. As noted by others above, only one country relies on WTO.
Every country in the world is registered for WTO but they make trade deals with other countries to give a better deal and partnership than WTO. WTO isn't really about you scratch my back i scratch yours, it's just a basis of how much thenother should be spending on goods and how much it costs.
That entire drivel about WTO by Leave was utter tosh.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tabbykatze
I'm not sure whether you're making a point or being facetious to insult. Pretty much no country trades on WTO because it is dire.
Making a point, by echoing your words ... but not digging at you.
My point, explicitly, is that so much of the doom and gloom is based of "crashing out" on economic 'forecasts' that so many people seem to take at face value, with little or no understanding of how they're derived. And to be fair, they are NOT easy to understand, unless people have a grounding in statistics and econometrics. Which most don't.
Thereforw, they take such projections on trust, without really any appreciation of the limitations of the processes used, despite many such projections having been shown up in the past as not only wrong, but often, badly so.
No insult was intended.
Re: Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tabbykatze
Every country in the world is registered for WTO but they make trade deals with other countries to give a better deal and partnership than WTO. WTO isn't really about you scratch my back i scratch yours, it's just a basis of how much thenother should be spending on goods and how much it costs.
That entire drivel about WTO by Leave was utter tosh.
WTO is like being in the emergency tax bracket with no chance of getting a nice rebate when you get your tax code sorted out.