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Thread: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

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    Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    So said a US equity firm, precipitating an Intel share price drop on Monday.
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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    Equity firms/investment companies totally known for longterm investments and totally not for asset stripping and short termism. Equity firms totally have not bought up so many UK companies,totally not asset stripped them,and divested the remains which end up with financial issues and the taxpayer picking up the bill.

    Also how lucky of them to start shorting Intel on purpose. Say a longterm plan won't work,share drops in price,then sell it when all the jittery people have less jitters. Classic. It happened to AMD all the time.
    Last edited by CAT-THE-FIFTH; 11-05-2021 at 10:46 AM.
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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    Quote Originally Posted by CAT-THE-FIFTH View Post
    Equity firms/investment companies totally known for longterm investments and totally not for asset stripping and short termism. Equity firms totally have not bought up so many UK companies,totally not asset stripped them,and divested the remains which end up with financial issues and the taxpayer picking up the bill.

    Also how lucky of them to start shorting Intel on purpose. Say a longterm plan won't work,share drops in price,then sell it when all the jittery people have less jitters. Classic. It happened to AMD all the time.
    Exactly - but also a thinly veiled threat saying how Intel were complacent and are now a reactive company rather than proactive
    Old puter - still good enuff till I save some pennies!

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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    I remember reading at some point in the last decade (if I recall correctly) that an equity/investment company said negative things about a (US) non-tech company, causing their share prices to drop quite a bit.

    Coincidentally enough, they apparently bought a lot of shares in that same company very shortly after...

    So it honestly wouldn't surprise me if this was the the first half of a similar attempt.

    Although I'm not sure if such a thing would actually be legal if it did happen, but I'd certainly hope not as such a thing would obviously be too blatant to be ignored.

    I'm not saying it actually is the case, just that I'm cynical enough about equity/investment companies that it wouldn't surprise me if it was.
    Last edited by Output; 11-05-2021 at 01:03 PM. Reason: Disclaimer

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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    Hostile takeover?

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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    Quote Originally Posted by Output View Post
    Although I'm not sure if such a thing would actually be legal if it did happen, but I'd certainly hope not as such a thing would obviously be too blatant to be ignored.
    No, market manipulation is completely illegal in most major markets.

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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    The guy is just stating what has been obvious for the last 3 years. Added to that is the rise of ARM in the datacentre/server space.
    Intel has a lot of work to do.

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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    No, market manipulation is completely illegal in most major markets.
    It happens all the time - a lot of shorting revolves around this,and the industry gets away on "technicalities" so won't get into trouble. It pays to have good lawyers!

    Quote Originally Posted by 3dcandy View Post
    Exactly - but also a thinly veiled threat saying how Intel were complacent and are now a reactive company rather than proactive
    Maybe but also as Intel is the only major US fab operation around,they are to benefit from potentially tens of billions of USD,to shore up their homeground fabs. The US government has a vested national security interest in making sure Intel does not fail.
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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    These analysts are always talking nonsense really. First of all they have very basic knowledge of the it domain. We can all remember what these analysts said in 2015 about amd that it is doomed and going to be bought by someone else or it will go bankrupt. And here we are today. These analysts are just trying to manipulate the market, to lower the stock value of intel, so that they can buy stock at lower price, stocks that will then go back to 60 dollars per share in 2 years. That is how you make easy money.

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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    Quote Originally Posted by QuorTek View Post
    Hostile takeover?
    If that was in response to what I'd said in my post - no, it was still a small amount of the whole overall, but I think it was effectively half price of what it would have cost them before what they said.

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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    Intel will soon get 10B or so probably free from US govt for fabs. Pat has already met with Biden at least ONCE and Biden wants to give away 30B, so I don't see how Intel doesn't end up with 1/3 or more vs. TSMC/Samsung who are really CHINA at any moment now. Intel's last 3yrs have been 21B, so again, yeah, AMD has the best chips but if you can't take that NET INCOME down and PILE some up yourself, so what? NV took back 9% of gpu how fast from AMD recently? LOL. TTM NET income at INTC 18.5B. Still a mile for Intel to cut pricing and again stop AMD net income. Intel is still 10x AMD so in three years they've done what? Ah right, make way too many console socs for single digit to mid teen margins in a WAFER SHORTAGE...LOL.

    Biden should be looking at INTEL first, period. Anything given to the other two can easily end up as IP in china hands. China already told their military to prepare for WAR with Taiwan (US too? who knows). China can't buy from ASML so the only way to get the latest tech that can last a few years is take taiwan then NK/SK etc which would cripple the world until 2023-2024 when all the new USA fabs come online and those would take a few years to spin up 100% (2+).

    But agree with others, this is just trying to shove down the price so they get an easy payday as it recovers, probably to 64 before Q1 as new chip hits before xmas with much better 10nm enh superfin tech. Also, Intel is starting to make real money from GPU shortly, and will gain share at least for a bit if they're about to hit with 3070ti perf and can add many more tiles next gen. Clearly Intel can shave many AMD/NV wafers from TSMC with their own GPU's and more tiles just means more wafers next year. I don't really see how AMD gains much with so many fighting over wafers they need and that others can ALL pay more for (IE, apple, NV, Intel, Qcom, MSFT, Sony, etc etc). AMD has already had about 3Q's to move product mix around, and couldn't net 600mil (no, last Q's 1.2B one time tax break doesn't count as a 1B NET INCOME Q). THEY said in their Q they moved the mix to more expensive parts, but those dang consoles just keep wasting wafers that could be making thousands per chip instead of $10-15ea soc. NV coming back to TSMC after samsung snafu at 8nm, Intel buying gpu at least 6nm, surely more at 5nm or less next year if only to take wafers from AMD etc.

    I don't see how Intel has to do anything but buy gpu and maybe some lowend cpu wafers at TSMC to cut AMD off at the pass so to speak. They can't seem to get above 21%, new apu not even coming to DIY until xmas probably, last one NEVER even came (47xxg where are you), apple coming for chips to replace Intel now also, etc etc. So many after chips in a shortage that can't really be fixed by anyone until 2023-2024. Ford just announce perhaps 1/2 car production next Q due to chips. LG gave up mobile, I think partially due to knowing the next models probably couldn't be launched. Amd I think cancelled warhol because Intel bought too much 6nm and they couldn't launch much more than paper at 6nm this year with Intel gpus taking loads. It's just a guess but odd Intel says 6nm gpu "around the corner" in a tweet last week while AMD cancels it's 6nm. Every gpu Intel sells from a TSMC wafer is an AMD CPU that can't be made to take share...So, not sure what these analysts are going on about.

    AMD had the same story years ago, led for the same time, etc. Stuck at 20% due to dresden etc limits. Now AMD leads again, but due to shortages, and their own dumb decisions (consoles were a mistake, make KINGS Dirk Said, they fired him 2011, now trying to do it...LOL) with their use of the wafers they could buy, their STILL locked at ~20% again with no way out until Intel is likely fully recovered. AMD has 1/2 the assets vs. 2009 (dec 2009 1B+ NET INCOME Q), DOUBLE the shares outstanding, etc etc and share price back then? $2-10 for almost a decade. Explain $75+? ROFLMAO.

    If I was AMD I'd take a lawsuit from MSFT/SONY (claim you're saving them money, they both lost ~3.5-4B each on last versions xbox360/ps3), and make only server chips from those wafers from here on and truly attack Intel. Maybe without all the wasted 500mm^2 on each console (actually 1000+ but 1/2 is older nodes), you could make a dent more in servers and make real NET INCOME. Until you kill the consoles or more fabs are built, you can't take much share and Intel can radically alter your roadmap buy buying wafers for gpus, etc at TSMC. Intel is tapped out 100% in their own fabs and has been for a while, so it's even in their best interests to sell every gpu and whatever else they can from TSMC to grow their own crap until their fabs are online 2023+. It's literally a win win, to grow and to stop AMD growth they have ONLY one way. Buy TSMC wafers for a while at least (3+yrs IMHO). Put out a stonking gpu that is HUGE (or many tiles=huge together) each year and sell as many as possible to servers if I'm Intel. Then move down the line if you can to enthusiasts etc, or heck attack top to bottom if you can get the wafers...LOL. Even breaking EVEN on a gpu sold is wafers AMD/NV (who is coming for Intel cpus also) can't use. Don't forget NV is coming with ARM cpus so again, Intel's best strategy is to do as much as possible at TSMC as long as they are 100% tapped out at home.

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    Re: Intel's new chip plants won't result in it catching up with AMD

    Sorry, I didn't read beyond your suggestion that China will invade S. Korea. Not going to happen.

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