HD DVD and Blu-ray: Format Wars

[Steven W]

The first HD DVD players have been shipped. Will Blu-ray be able to catch up?

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[Whiternoise]

It depends on how big a range of movies the companies will sell, blu-ray will probably catch up, but DVD is more established (even though this is HD) so, it could be close IMO.

[Stoo]

Na, I think Blu-Ray will catch-up and rapidly overtake HD-DVD *very* quickly.. like in November..

1 Million PS3 units per month, and they *will* sell, and just like the PS2 did for the DVD format, the market penetration is going to be very fast and very deep.

HD-DVD has no "killer-app" to drive the market penetration, sure, the 360 is getting an add-on drive, but that's an optional extra which will cost a fair bit for quite a time, and it won't be used for games - only movies.

Microsoft could have helped it by integrating it into the 360, but then they would have had to delay the 360 to a uncomfortably similar date as the PS3, in essence, the add-on is too little to late to be able to give HD-DVD anything more than the slightest of nudges.

All it's going to do for Microsoft is provide a few more months marketing twaddle - "Blu-Ray is the next betamax", which is only going to increase with more desperation the closer to the PS3 launch we get, as they sling more and more mud hoping some of it might stick enough to lessen the blow.

Of course, I'm not naive enough to expect that it would be any different if the tables were turned

[Jonny M]

I remain fully convinced that people will continue to buy DVDs, hook up their PS3s using composite video cables, and not even know they have a Blu-Ray player there.

I honestly think you overrate the PS3 factor. HDDVD isn't going away any time soon, and neither is Blu-Ray. And neither is DVD.

Edit: The PS2 was a crap DVD player, and by that time DVD usage was pretty widespread. I wouldn't say the PS2 helped promote the move from VHS to DVD at all. Sure maybe in the 'geek' market, the area of early adopters, people will buy Blu-Ray because they pre-ordered a PS3, but to everyone else, they quite like their world of £30 players, and £10 discs, and it's going to take a long time and a lot of convincing to get them away from these formats.

I personally won't be buying either until there are decent players available which will do both formats, I don't really feel like funding some companies gamble.

[Nick F]

I'm all for the HD-DVD format myself. I guess that owning the Xbox 360 makes a difference though.

I think Blu-ray will do well only once the PS3 comes out and people start hearing about it. If I asked everyone in my office which is about 1500 people I bet only 15% of people would know what HDTV is.

[Stoo]

The PS2 was a crap DVD player, and by that time DVD usage was pretty widespread. I wouldn't say the PS2 helped promote the move from VHS to DVD at all.

Sorry, but you're wrong. Up until the PS2 came out, there were still reletively few DVD's available in the market (Large Virgin Megastores, HMV's etcIb also thi were still devoting most of the AV floorspace to VHS), after the PS2 came out, media costs dropped (Most DVD's before that time were £20+), and the format exploded in popularity.

The PS2 *wasn't* a bad player at all, sure, it wasn't a spot on today's players, but at the time when even the cheapest standalone players DVD were still £200, it was completely fine. Yes there was an issue with scart connections, but that was fixed quickly with buying another cable.

I also think you're underestimating how quickly LCD set sales are taking over from CRT, if I go into any of my local electrical stores, a good 75% of the stock is now HD ready LCD's, with crt's largely limited to the small 14" bedroom/kitchen tv's, with only a couple of the more expensive large crt screens on display.

[fathazza]

I also think you're underestimating how quickly LCD set sales are taking over from CRT, if I go into any of my local electrical stores, a good 75% of the stock is now HD ready LCD's, with crt's largely limited to the small 14" bedroom/kitchen tv's, with only a couple of the more expensive large crt screens on display.

yeah but how many people upgrade their tv's each year....

DVD vs the HD formats is completely different cos it relies on the consumer not only buying an HD player but an HD telly too and most people dont want to spend 1000 quid on it. With Dvd earlish adopters were laying out £250 and getting a huge benefit over vhs. The same is less easy to apply to HD due to the relative cost to the reward. Most people are very happy with dvds and dont want to junk their collections or have to buy their films again in a higher resolution. There is also the problem that a largepart of the back catalogue realy wont be any better than dvd due to poor and old masters. The availibility of obscure films that were faves from the past really helped dvd sales.

Tis the same with Music really, with cds vs hdcds,sacds and dvd-a's. no one really buys them because their benefit isnt obvious...

Having said that one of the HD formats will eventually win out but i dont think it will happen anything like as quickly as people hope.

[5lab]

i think by the end of the year the number of blu-ray players in peoples homes will be huge compared to the number of hd players..

i agree with the fact that the ps2 helped dvd take off - when it came out (in 2000) the average standalone dvd player was still around £200, realistically out of reach of joe consumer. yet £300 for a console isn't so unheard of - the ps2 sold in millions, and joe consumer started buying dvds instead of videos, due to the obvious advantages. yeah the ps2 wasnt the best player, but it was better than a video player, and that counts. as for the majority of ps3 buyers not knowing they have blue-ray - well most ps2 buyers know they've got a dvd player in there, so i'm not convinced that'll be the case.

i think blue-ray will be quickly dominant over hd-dvd, but i dont htink it'll outsell dvd until the majority of houses have a player - and only when its outselling dvd will the costs come down to less (lets face it, early titles are all going to be £20 each..)

[pp05]

Isn't HD-DVD the choice for PC's? Or will consumers see a drive combining the technology?

PS3 will sell for sure but at £450+ we'll see how much early adoption there is... especially if other consoles offer rebates or sell for half the price. Because ultimately it's going to be judged as a gaming device first.


The other problem is this:

the new HD-DVD (and Sony's rival Blu-ray HDTV DVD, which will be released in early summer)includes an anti-copying feature that could dramatically reduce the picture quality on early-model HDTVs with analog components. (The number of HDTVs with analog components could be as high as 12 million.)If the studios add the anti-copying software to their DVDs, the picture quality would not only not be true HD, but it would be little better than current DVDs.

Most studios are saying now that they won't add the software, but they are not making any long-term commitments. So you might see a great picture today and a lousy one before year's end.

[Ross Stone]

Isn't HD-DVD the choice for PC's? Or will consumers see a drive combining the technology?

I would prefer BluRay for PC use. For the main reason its bigger storage. I am having problems at the moment finding a way to store all the data I have, currenly using a SAN device. But 50GB discs, might solve that for a while. Not sure how other PC users will feel, but I guess most will prefer a bigger disc.

PS3 will sell for sure but at £450+ we'll see how much early adoption there is...

I suspect its better to asume it will sell for around £300 - £400? Seeing as both PS1 and PS2 were £300. Sony are probably quite willing to sell at a loss, to make sure they gain a market share. TBH I just really hope its £300 for my wallets sake, but I would pay up to £500 if thats what they were sold for.

[pp05]

Sony CEO said it would sell for that much due to parts being expensive and also it would be the companies console for forseeable future..

[awm]

I think neither of them is going to catch on very fast for two reasons:
1. No obvious superiour format, and nobody(very few people) wants to jump on the worng format.
2. For most people DVDs are good enough. There cheeper and the new formats offer no benefits over the old ones unless you have an HDTV. The small media size, digital format, ability to have extras and multiple langagues all are the same in both formats.

Of course some people will take one or the other, but I think most comsumers will wait till things settle out, and that won't happen till the consumer mass picks a format, not just the small group of people who can sell their first born son for as PS3.