Everyone knows the 8800GTX was a big performance jump at the time and hope Kepler is great too. I hope so too as it will lead to a price war of sorts.
However,the fact is that I am just too cynical with all the hype when it comes to GPUs in the last few years.
So I had a quick look on techPowerUp at the graphics cards released over the last few years. The comparison is not scientific as it is based on the results of one website,but still are interesting.
Fastest single GPU cards since late 2006.
2006
8800GTX review:
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/P...8800GTX/6.html
50% faster at 2560X1600 than previous fastest single GPU card,the X1950XTX. 70% faster than the 7900GTX. X1950XTX around 15% to 20% faster than the 7900GTX.
2008
If we take techPowerUp's review of the GTX280:
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/P...TX_280/25.html
The GTX280 was around 40% faster than a 8800GTX but if the Ultra was used it would have been less. 8800Ultra was the previous fastest single GPU card and the GTX280 was its heir. Released 17 months after 8800GTX and 11 months after 8800Ultra.
2009
GTX285 review:
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/L...TX_285/26.html
10% faster than the GTX280 and was the worlds fastest single GPU card. Released 7 months after GTX280. Second generation GTX285 card(shrink).
2009
HD5870 1GB review:
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/A...D_5870/30.html
20% faster than GTX285 and hence fastest single GPU card in the world and first DX11 card. Released 21 months after the GTX285. 40% faster than the HD4890(second generation HD4000 series card optimised for clockspeeds) which was the previous fastest AMD single GPU card.Released nearly 18 months after HD4890.
2010
GTX480 review:
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/N..._Fermi/32.html
10% to 20% faster than the HD5870 1GB and fastest single GPU card in the world. 40% faster than the GTX285 which was the previous fastest Nvidia card.First DX11 Nvidia card. Released 15 months after GTX285.
2010
GTX580 review:
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/N...TX_580/27.html
20% faster than the GTX480. Fastest single GPU card in the world. Released 7 to 8 months after GTX480. Second generation card optimised for higher power efficiency.
2011
HD7970 review:
20% faster than GTX580:
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/AMD/HD_7970/28.html
Fastest single GPU card in the world and first DX11.1 graphics card. 40% faster than HD6970. Released 12 to 13 months after HD6970.
2012??
Kepler??
Probably fastest single GPU card. Release date around 18 months after GTX580.
I expect it to be 40% faster than a GTX580 if it is line with recent generations. Of course it could be much more if it is an 8800GTX level jump.
It seems if we look at the techPowerUp reviews after the 8800GTX there has been on average a 40% increase in performance, from one new generation to another for each company. This is going from the refined second edition cards of the previous generation to the "raw" first edition cards of the new generation. However,in many cases greater performance from both companies might have been possible,but many cards from AMD and Nvidia have been underclocked to keep to TDPs.