Britain, the EU and the future

[Phage]

Are those growth stats ? They would explain the movement of capital to those economies, not government policy.

[j1979]

Are those growth stats ? They would explain the movement of capital to those economies, not government policy.

central bank interest rates. available in multiple currencies, with some fluctuation.

[Phage]

Ah - not sure how this relates to the veto ?
Incidentally Aus has recently passed a carbon tax. Interesting times indeed.

[j1979]

Ah - not sure how this relates to the veto ?
Incidentally Aus has recently passed a carbon tax. Interesting times indeed.

I guess it effects the veto because imo London has no future anyway. Veto or no veto, London can no longer compete, so vetoing to protect London seems pointless.

[Phage]

I guess it effects the veto because imo London has no future anyway. Veto or no veto, London can no longer compete, so vetoing to protect London seems pointless.

Ah well, sorry but you're wrong there. Having worked in Fin Svcs in Australia and London, there is simply no comparison. London competes on it's regulatory background, it's listed companies, the strength of it's professionals and it's timezone.
As someone said before, like it or not, the FS sector in London is a major part of the UK economy driving huge tax revenues and hundreds of thousands of jobs. More, if we count indirectly generated.
Why would you want to destroy it ? Because it's 'bad' ? Or is it just that you don't feel any connection with it ?

I suppose I'm just saying that the fat-cat stereotype doesn't go anywhere near the reality. There's no such job as 'Banker' and there's no such one thing as the 'City'. Convenient labels and generalisation are simply a lazy media pandering to the lowest common denominator.

If you're in town, let me know. I'd be happy to go out for a coffee and talk about it. You can tell me about the Ukraine (my GGrandfather came from Odessa) and I'll try and show you the ways of the pinstriped road to perdition.

[TheAnimus]

In all these countries you can store your money all major currencies.

At the risk of been rude you don't really seem to have a grasp of what your talking about.

You turn to the defense of "your soo funny" I tried to give some reasoning behind the statements I've made, if I failed it would be good to know why, so I can better communicate but, instead I feel you've just run off on a tangent.

Why the hell would the rate matter one little bit?

I've a US bank account, with some dollars in. I'm a British Citizen, everytime I go to the US I need a visa for flying, I have no special relationship.

But I can store as much money as I want there.

If I want to buy some of their equities I can buy an ADR. I don't need to be there.

You've completely missed the point about what would attract a company to a location, local interest rates are not even on the radar directly.

[pp05]

I don't think the media and particularly the BBC reported it fairly. They used the word 'veto' which is misleading. Essentially they have used Cameron as the fall guy for what really amounts to differences between Sarkozy and Merkel in how to deal with the mess and protect their own coffers.

What Cameron has finally done whether intentionally or not because we sure wouldn't have got it from Tony Blair or Gordon Brown or Nick Clegg for that matter is to say to Euro that I will say no and am prepared to follow through with it if I'm not happy with the arrangement. Euro leaders answer everytime they don't get their way? 'then we will write a new rule or new treaty banning the word no'.

[Saracen]

central bank interest rates. available in multiple currencies, with some fluctuation.

Central bank rates are usually as guide to market rates be cause they're usually a fairly inelastic link, but right now, they're not. UK base rates do not directly affect the vast bulk of what's going on in the market, probably with the sole exception of mortgage rates that are tied to them. What is determining what's going on is things like LIBOR, but that's also dependent on banks being willing to lend, not just at what rate, and on the bond market, and not just the nominal rate but the yields in the secondary market.

That list of rates is largely irrelevant, because it does not reflect actual rates in the market, as evidenced by the fact that UK base rates have been static at a fixed level for 2 years+, and market rates have not. Investors don't care what base rates are, they care what return they get, and base rates are only relevant when they drive market rates. Right now, they don't.

[capt_cornflake]

I personally don't know enough about finance to say whether the proposal was a good one or not (either for the UK or Europe as a whole).
However it does seem to me to be a major mistake to play the veto card without making more of an attempt at a negotiated position.

Having said that, I'm of the opinion that we really need to be working with Europe much more than we currently do if we want to become anything other than an bit part player. We currently punch above our weight largely due to old colonial ties, but this is diminishing. A lot of the anti-Europe rhetoric seems to originate from people who believe we still have an empire.

I'm under no illusion that a lot of the current European system is a mess and needs overhaul, but this seems to be a key moment when there is sufficient impetus that some of the changes needed could actually be pushed through. Removing ourselves from that process seems incredibly short sighted.

[BobF64]

I personally don't know enough about finance to say whether the proposal was a good one or not (either for the UK or Europe as a whole).
However it does seem to me to be a major mistake to play the veto card without making more of an attempt at a negotiated position.

The thing is, most of the focus is on the UK declining to give up some of our sovereignty rather than what actually went on behind closed doors.

We dont really know exactly how much negotiation went on, but so far it seems to be portrayed as Cameron saying "we will, but only if" and then France/Germany saying "no, its our way or nothing".

*shrug* time will tell, im sure the UK will get the blame if the Euro "crisis" worsens.

I'm very inclined to think there is only one solution, and that is a Euro using EU-core, that is effectively 1 country both politically and financially, and an exterior non-Euro Trading bloc.

[aidanjt]

However it does seem to me to be a major mistake to play the veto card without making more of an attempt at a negotiated position.

The Eurocrats have no interest in negotiating. They want to milk the recession for all it's political worth to force integration.

[capt_cornflake]

We dont really know exactly how much negotiation went on, but so far it seems to be portrayed as Cameron saying "we will, but only if" and then France/Germany saying "no, its our way or nothing".

Part of the problem is that most of the press in the UK is so rabidly anti-Europe that it's nearly impossible to get any kind of impartial coverage.

I'm very inclined to think there is only one solution, and that is a Euro using EU-core, that is effectively 1 country both politically and financially, and an exterior non-Euro Trading bloc.

A lot of people have been saying for a long time that a single currency would only ever really work with closer fiscal integration, so yes I think it's inevitable that those countries using the Euro will have to accept this or quit the Euro. I don't think this necessarily has to extend as far as full political union though.

The Eurocrats have no interest in negotiating. They want to milk the recession for all it's political worth to force integration.

Trolling of the highest order

[Phage]

I personally don't know enough about finance to say whether the proposal was a good one or not (either for the UK or Europe as a whole).

Me either

However it does seem to me to be a major mistake to play the veto card without making more of an attempt at a negotiated position.

I don't think that Merkozy was in the mood for negotiating with a non-Euro country.

Having said that, I'm of the opinion that we really need to be working with Europe much more than we currently do if we want to become anything other than an bit part player. We currently punch above our weight largely due to old colonial ties, but this is diminishing. A lot of the anti-Europe rhetoric seems to originate from people who believe we still have an empire.

Very true. The back bench Eurosceptics worry me as well.

I'm under no illusion that a lot of the current European system is a mess and needs overhaul, but this seems to be a key moment when there is sufficient impetus that some of the changes needed could actually be pushed through. Removing ourselves from that process seems incredibly short sighted.

I have to disagree with you there. It would be very foolish to blindly agree to the Franco-German solution, and pledge to support the Euro at our own cost, and hand further billions to a systemically corrupt unelected organisation.

[aidanjt]

Trolling of the highest order

I'm not trolling at all. I make a point of watching the discussion going on in the European Parliament. While they dress it up in soft language like 'harmonisation', 'pressing forward', and 'growth', and other such positively spun words and phrases, what they really mean is destroying national sovereignty, ignoring the will of the people, and expansive power grabs.

[roachcoach]

This might sound a bit controversial and it is not intended to be so but...

I think there's a good chance Merkel will do much of what a former German leader tried to do not so long ago, this time without a shot fired.


Edit for clarity/troll avoidance:

This was intended to be an impassive observation of a possibility. I'd meant nothing one way or t'other with it. I wasn't suggesting (or trying to suggest) imperialistic motivations

I'd say that its more of a co-incidence of the current location of the strongest economy than anything else. As I see it, there's no sensible way anyone can realistically lend to the floundering nations without heavy caveats and a degree of control over their internal policies.

Governments are already controlled, to a fair degree, by those with the money - this is just writ large.

[BobF64]

This might sound a bit controversial and it is not intended to be so but...

I think there's a good chance Merkel will do much of what a former German leader tried to do not so long ago, this time without a shot fired.

I have no problem with a unified europe, but countries should enter it because they want to, knowing full well what it entails, rather than by a slow process of attrition.