Iran debating ban on Oil sales to EU

[dave87]

So, the EU had planned a 6 month phase in before a ban on purchasing Iranian oil - culminating in a total ban on 1 July. I'm guessing this is due to the fragile state of a number of the world's economies.

Seeing they potentially have the upper hand, Iran decides not to play ball - it is debating banning EU countries from buying oil immediately.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/0...8CR10F20120127



So, Greece, Italy - If Iran does ban exports of oil to the EU, is it going to be the straw that broke the camels back?

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Regarding the economic ramifications for Europe:

Don't worry,the politicians around Europe are not going to get affected!! The important people are protected so why should any of us worry! Sorting out our economies is BORING man and too much hard work!

Look at the last 10 years of screw ups and billions of pounds and Euro wasted(which we all will be being paying for decades),and the most they will get is losing the elections. Then they will feel sad as they cannot play their little political games,but, hey its a no risk game so everyone's a winner(as long as you are politician).

It makes me think how we came to this situation of buying enough oil from Iran, to make a difference especially after decades of not seeing eye to eye.

[pp05]

This will only further consolidate Iran-Russia ties.

[Biscuit]

i thought the ban was because of Iranian nuclear facilities and suspicious they may be using it to create cores for ICBMs?

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

i thought the ban was because of Iranian nuclear facilities and suspicious they may be using it to create cores for ICBMs?

I don't see Russia and China quavering in their boots and they are in range of any perceived Iranian threat,in fact they are closer than most of Europe. So I would say watch their response and if they start getting seriously worried,then maybe you should too.

Now,the important question is that if we have had issues with Iran for decades,then why were we buying oil from them in the first place?? It means that we basically given them billions of dollars to fund their military R and D for decades. The fact that ceasing Iranian oil imports will affect our own economies directly is "hilariously" sad. So just more political sabre rattling in one hand after the horse has bolted.

I would give you one word of advice. Look at the progression of the Indian,Pakstani and North Korean nuclear and missile development programmes especially their timelines from test articles to weaponised systems. The Indian one is easily the most advanced of them and the Indians have been doing it since the 1960s. India does not have ICBMs.

Also,remember Israel has nukes(quite a few too) ,the delivery systems and the will to use them to defend themselves, and the fact the Iranian clerical lot want to stay in power. Now what would you do if you wanted to stay in power? Nuke other countries and be certain of being obliterated with a nuclear strike or do what North Korea has been doing? Of course that also assumes they can even make a functional weapon let alone one which is weaponisable. Countries like South Africa and Pakistan needed external help.

[jim]

I would give you one word of advice. Look at the progression of the Indian,Pakstani and North Korean nuclear and missile development programmes especially their timelines from test articles to weaponised systems. The Indian one is easily the most advanced of them and the Indians have been doing it since the 1960s. India does not have ICBMs.

Question is, does India need ICBMs? Who could they possibly want to hit on another continent?

[Pilgrim_uk]

Iran is the least of our troubles you should be looking at the Chinese and its argument for territorial waters. Warning any countries to keep out or face action. Its quite ridiculous and goes well overboard the 200 mile limit. Once they build their carrier It will be quite interesting in how things develop in the pacific.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Question is, does India need ICBMs? Who could they possibly want to hit on another continent?

Prestige and competition with China.It seems India is developing the Agni-VI ICBM . They want to be the next world power. India is also developing SLBMs too.

The current one is short range and looks more like a test exercise:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagarika_%28missile%29

India has developed its first domestically developed nuclear submarine which is an SSBN:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-13bs9MB3ga...ihant_SSBN.jpg

[jim]

Prestige and competition with China.It seems India is developing the Agni-VI ICBM . They want to be the next world power.

Maybe, but if so it's only a very recent development. The point I'm making is that it might have taken them 50+ years because they had no incentive to develop them for much of that period.

If so, another nation with a more immediate need could achieve it far more quickly.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Maybe, but if so it's only a very recent development. The point I'm making is that it might have taken them 50+ years because they had no incentive to develop them for much of that period.

If so, another nation with a more immediate need could achieve it far more quickly.

The incentive has been there for decades. India has been pouring resources into missile development since the 1970s:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integra...opment_Program

India has had plans on ICBMs for decades now but it has only reached that level now.

Remember this is India who have significantly more manpower,money and access to technology than Iran. The Indian nuclear programme started in the 1960s and lead to them detonating a test device in 1974.

On top of this weaponising nuclear weapons to be small enough and having missiles with enough throw weight is not necessarily an easy task. It took decades for India to go from test device to air dropped bomb to minaturised devices for missile deployment. Even if Iran can use modified technology to produce a missile with long enough range,will it have the payload capacity for nuclear weapon,let alone be accurate enough?? All,I can see them doing is developing air dropped bombs for deployment from SU24 fighter bombers which they have in service. That is assuming they make a functional design which can work in the first place and be able to make a deployable design.

If Iran does develop a nuclear bomb,they willl be using the "don't invade otherwise we will nuke you" mantra to make up for the deficiencies of their conventional forces. It seems more a device to make sure the clerics can stay in power.

If you look at the technology that Iran has been using it is basically modified Scud technology which North Korea also uses(both seem to exchange technology). Pakistan had help from China.

[IronWarrior]

Seems fair to me, we punish them and they punish where it really hurts. Eye for an Eye, the problem is that our governments are so two faced that they don't like it when they are being punished.

Anyway, still think we should invade Iran and just sort it once and for all, let's be honest about it, they have Oil and we want it.

[petercook7]

and we still give them aid.

[chuckskull]

I actually hope they do it. The sooner we stop giving this kind of regime funding the better. One of these days the west needs to toughen up and take the hit to it's finances from not buying most of it's energy from despots, theocrats and thugs. All we do is build a far greater and more deadly problem for tomorrow.

A quick briefing on Iranian military capabilities by Gen. McCaffrey (Ret). http://www.michaelyon-online.com/ima...ary-122012.pdf

[directhex]

The sooner we stop giving this kind of regime funding the better.

The regime in Iran is 101% Britain's fault.

[redddraggon]

The regime in Iran is 101% Britain's fault.

Huh? 101% doesn't commute, especially when the US had a bigger hand in the Pie.

[chuckskull]

The regime in Iran is 101% Britain's fault.

Heh, don't even get me started on that. It always comes back to the same basic problem; trading short term gain for long term pain. Time and again. Eventually it's going to cost the west in a big way.