Peak Oil - What are your thoughts?

[Nat101]

My argument is that the only limit on available oil is an economic one. Costs of extraction go up slowly over a long period, and when other tech becomes economically viable due to higher pricing, we switch. No crisis and no shortage.

As an aviation enthusiast, your take on this also makes particular sense; there being no short term alternative to the voluminous amount of oil that the industry demands.

[JPreston]

My argument is that the only limit on available oil is an economic one. Costs of extraction go up slowly over a long period, and when other tech becomes economically viable due to higher pricing, we switch. No crisis and no shortage.

Yeah I think the only thing is, the 'other tech' will not come into existence overnight and long before we do start powering our deloreans with banana skins, the pressure of high oil prices on (for example) the infrastructure that produces and transports our food from where it's grown to where we live may well cause strife through localised shortages, population movements, US invasion of Iran, etc. The cost has not been, in fact, 'going up slowly over a long period' at all, only a couple of years ago it was an unprecedented (at the time) $40/barrel

High pricing at the moment is artificial. The effects of Katrina wiping out rigs in the Gulf of Mexico has been OPEC sensing an opportunity to tax the US. Watch what happens over the next few months...

No need for a hurricane to happen, they can do that any time they like and without even the intention of reducing domestic demand that will never change. To quote a famous philosopher "Remember - when we conserve, the terrorists win".

[TeePee]

The current spike post 9/11 isn't a trend. Compare it to the oil crisis in the 1970's. The $20 a barrel jump in the last month should go down by the end of the year, and a general downward movement over then next few years is what I'd expect to see.

'Other tech' is already here, it doesn't have to come in overnight. On TV here every car manufacturer is advertising it's hybrid or flex-fuel car, they all have something.. Lexus even has a hybrid SUV...

[JPreston]

...that has worse fuel economy, with worse emissions, than my own turbo-charged non-hybrid that does 0-60 in 7 seconds and has a top speed of 150mph. I don't consider my car to be fuel efficient or environmentally friendly, and neither is the Lexus...in fact to get the fuel economy figures I looked at the Lexus site and found the following sales slogan which says it all really:

"The mileage estimate ratings for the RX400h are higher than the typical V8-powered SUV"



This is largely irrelevant since anyway only about 25% (IIRC) of oil is used by private motorists and their often bell-ended vehicles, instead it's used for things like electricity generation, domestic heating, avaiation and shipping, plastics, manufacturing. How much further can the price of oil rise, without having serious repercussions for society? Long before we have hydrogen fuelled flying cars we will have petrol rationing, shortages of many foods, massively expensive air travel (personally I don't see any downside to that one), and so on. For my money the transition from an oil-based economy has not been so far, nor will be going forwards, a smooth gradual shift in the equilibrium of supply and demand.

[TeePee]

The mileage figues for the Lexus are higher than a typical V8 SUV. The 400h gives highway (mpg): 27 and EPA city (mpg): 31 compared to an Escalade's 19 and 14. An impressive difference. Remember it's an SUV with performance figures as good as your turbo-charged car. It's a very smart move for Lexus, since Americans love SUVs so much..

Personally I'd like to see an increase in the price of airline tickets, since people would still pay it. The prices are too cheap at the moment. Even so, the major airlines in the US have either just started to show a profit again, or are anticipating it. Fuel pricing does have an effect on the pricing of airline tickets, but it's not as big a part as most people thing. The airframe costs and maintenence are huge!

We have just started showing that shift towards alternative fuels. Hybrid and flex-fuel cars, good or not, have just entered the mainstream markets, so that transition period is just beginning. That said, current spike isn't the trend, we won't be looking as the price going a huge amount higher if at all, but a reduction over the rest of the year. The next ten years should show that transition continuing, and not the total collapse that the nutjob peak oil theory predicts.

[JPreston]

That was my point, that the Lexus SUV still consumes more fuel and puts out more CO2 than the average car on the roads in the UK, the hybrid technology is more than outweighed by the unnecessary size and weight. Together with the energy cost of manufacturing it it is actually a pretty dumb thing to replace your existing SUV with if you want to be eco-friendly. But yes hopefully there is no reason why in a year or two we won't have carbon fibre single occupancy vehicles that weigh about 100kg and give 200mpg+ economy. I want mine to have gull-wing doors, or a cockpit cover that lifts like on a fighter, that will prove there is hope for mankind after all

I agree that air travel is waaaay to cheap, not least because of the huge govt subsidies granted to the industry (eg in the Airbus design). If the full cost of design and manufacture had to be passed on to airlines instead of paid for by taxpayers there wouldn't 10% of the planes in the air as there are now. IMO there really needs to be extremely punitive taxation levied on passenger fares, as a first step. Then what to do about air freight . Need to think about 'food miles', it's stupid that (for example) the UK both imports and exports ~50k tonnes of chicken breasts by air every year. I suppose it's not beyond the realms of possibility that govts will step in and regulate this kind of thing, as long as we all keep banging on about it in the meantime.

[TeePee]

It's not dumb at all... You're a big fat soccer mum who 'needs' an SUV. Now you have a more economical option. The eco-friendly veggie brigade are already driving relatively economical small cars, and the difference in economy between them and a prius, for example, is relatively small. Lexus are targetting a different market.

[iranu]

Errr you are all wrong.... the price of oil is not going up because of supply and demand, oil does not quite work that way. (OPEC is in effect a cartel and that's not supply and demand) The oil price is going up because of the problems in the middle east. It is simple speculation that drives the oil price up. Analysts are worried that there will not be enough oil, in the short term, due to political strife, not because there is not physically enough oil to meet demand. Iraq has the 2nd largest reserves in the world yet is hardly producing any oil. Iran has oil but it's government is backward and there is not much investment especially in refining capacity, which is tiny, Iran actually imports petrol! In fact global refining capacity is the reason at the moment for any restriction in oil based products. It will take a few years for extra capacity to come online.

There's loads of oil under South America including the Falkland Islands but it is going to take a while for it to be exploited. New sources are being found all the time, the higher the oil price the more viable previously uneconomical fields become which inturn reduces the oil price because you can rely on politically stable countries to supply it. As oil companies make huge profits from high prices they are able to plow more money into oil exploration, therefore finding more oil in the process. By the time oil truly runs out we will wonder why we ever needed it because we will have advanced fuel and power technology so far. If peak oil were true you would see the price of oil literally sky rocket, not rise by a few dollars, because governments would buy up huge stocks for strategic purposes.

[DaBeeeenster]

Iranu; you are not correct about the rates of new field discoveries.

http://www.ibiblio.org/tcrp/doc/art/discgap.jpg

Given the enormous advances in the science and technology surrounding oil extraction in the past 50 years the above chart means one thing; we have found all the easily pumped oil in the world.

[wazi]

just another way to say your hooked and we are gonna take you too the cleaners everytime you fill up (unless you live across the pond , where no self respecting person drives anything less than a 5.0 v8

[Ruggerbugger]

Thanks for the chart beenster, that'll come in handy in my lessons.

[TeePee]

On 13-05-2006 the 'high oil price' discussed here was $73.82 (NYMEX LS CRUDE).

I predicted that there would be at least a $20 drop by the end of last year.

On the 11th of January the oil price hit a low of $51.88 a barrel, roughly a $22 drop.

The price continues to fluctuate, but the overall trend continues downward. Best of luck with the conspiracy theories.

[badass]

On 13-05-2006 the 'high oil price' discussed here was $73.82 (NYMEX LS CRUDE).

I predicted that there would be at least a $20 drop by the end of last year.

On the 11th of January the oil price hit a low of $51.88 a barrel, roughly a $22 drop.

The price continues to fluctuate, but the overall trend continues downward. Best of luck with the conspiracy theories.

Thats incorrect because we're all going to die!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DaBeeeenster]

On 13-05-2006 the 'high oil price' discussed here was $73.82 (NYMEX LS CRUDE).

I predicted that there would be at least a $20 drop by the end of last year.

On the 11th of January the oil price hit a low of $51.88 a barrel, roughly a $22 drop.

The price continues to fluctuate, but the overall trend continues downward. Best of luck with the conspiracy theories.

I cannot quite see how a price drop like this proves that peak oil is a "conspiracy theory". The oil market is in a different state today to how it was a year ago, but as far as I can tell no new oil has suddenly been produced by the earth during this period. There are many reasons for this price drop, most notably:

- The hurricane season in the gulf was not in any way as devastating as it was a last year (which also had an upward pressure on the price when this thread was originally discussed)
- The major energy consuming nations are generally having an extremely mild winter, causing them to consume less energy than normal.

Most people would have agreed this time last year that oil was going to come off of its highs. The point is that we are now discussing 50 bucks a barrel as "cheap" which is, quite frankly, crazy based on its history.

[DaBeeeenster]

Thats incorrect because we're all going to die!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you're not going to contribute to the thread, maybe it's better not to post at all?