Results 1 to 12 of 12

Thread: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

  1. #1
    HEXUS.admin
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    31,709
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked
    2,073 times in 719 posts

    Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    Exports are up but house prices down as the UK economic recovery balances precariously.
    Read more.

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Copenhagen, DK
    Posts
    1,893
    Thanks
    64
    Thanked
    100 times in 80 posts
    • Barrichello's system
      • Motherboard:
      • Asus Maximus VII Ranger
      • CPU:
      • Intel Core i7-4790 (3.60Ghz)
      • Memory:
      • 16GB
      • Storage:
      • 2 x (250GB) Samsung 840 EVO
      • Graphics card(s):
      • Asus Geforce GTX 770 (DC2OC 2GB GDDR5)
      • PSU:
      • Corsair 750HX
      • Case:
      • Fractal Design Define R4
      • Operating System:
      • Linux/Win 7
      • Monitor(s):
      • BenQ XL2720T
      • Internet:
      • 100MB/100MB

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    Quote Originally Posted by HEXUS View Post
    Reuters poll of 50 economists predict we will not double dip and just see slow growth..
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE67932I20100810

    but then again who believes them? - I work surrounded by them but personally i think something big could be around the corner. Not sure about UK but i think the US may startup the printing press again soon if current situation negative figures continue.

  3. Received thanks from:

    Scott B (10-08-2010)

  4. #3
    Registered+
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    78
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked
    5 times in 5 posts

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    All the news about a possible second resession really doesn't help, as now people are gonna fear for their jobs, and then just spend even less money. Its the same as the Northern Rock situation, if the media hadn't got hold of it so people panicked then there would most likely never have been a problem at all.
    I just hope that it doesn't progress any further, so people are more confident to go out and spend some money.

  5. Received thanks from:

    Platinum (11-08-2010)

  6. #4
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Hampshire
    Posts
    571
    Thanks
    21
    Thanked
    11 times in 10 posts
    • Fatboy40's system
      • Motherboard:
      • Asus A8N-E
      • CPU:
      • A64 X2 4200+ @ 2420 MHz
      • Memory:
      • 2GB
      • Storage:
      • 200GB SATA
      • Graphics card(s):
      • PNY 8800 GTS 320 - 648 ROP/1512 Shader/1053 Mem
      • PSU:
      • 400w Enermax
      • Operating System:
      • Windows 7 Pro x86
      • Monitor(s):
      • 17" Acer Flat Screen

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    All I want to do now on my lunch is go out and buy some double dips, sherbet fountains and fizzy flying saucers.

    Thanks to Hexus for making me even fatter !.
    I'm not fat and I'm not 40

    Quote Originally Posted by JPreston View Post
    I'm pretty disappointed that in the 21st century so much human endeavour and industry is still devoted to ascertaining whose imaginary sky-fairy is best...

  7. Received thanks from:

    Platinum (11-08-2010)

  8. #5
    Senior Member Scott B's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    643
    Thanks
    151
    Thanked
    33 times in 33 posts

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    Quote Originally Posted by Fatboy40 View Post
    All I want to do now on my lunch is go out and buy some double dips, sherbet fountains and fizzy flying saucers.

    Thanks to Hexus for making me even fatter !.
    LOL

  9. #6
    Admin (Ret'd)
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    18,481
    Thanks
    1,016
    Thanked
    3,208 times in 2,281 posts

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    As always with economics, you have to be very careful in associating cause and effect, especially if you're going to base predictions on shirt-term changes in trends.

    For instance, this bit of that article ....

    And the signs of weakening domestic demand are coming in thick and fast. For the first time in a year, more surveyors are reporting a fall in house prices than a rise, according to RICS. In other words, house prices fell, but this has coincided with a glut of new properties on the market. Retail sales growth also slowed last month.
    But why are RICS reporting a drop in house prices? Is it a sign of gloom over economic expectations from cautious buyers, or it is something else? Or is it a complex mix?

    For instance, the number of properties going onto the market surged partly in response to the remove of HIPS. And as demand has been cautious, not least due to difficulties getting mortgages,well, what always happens when supply exceeds demand? Yup .... prices fall. But, that element due to HIPS is a one-off market adjustment not a start of a trend.

    And then we have the impact of the announcements in the budget of changes to CGT, which with some specific exceptions, will hit people with second homes. There is, according to RICS, a significant jump in people putting their second properties on the market, both in reaction to the budget changes and indeed, in anticipation of them.

    Simply put, there;s a CGT annual exemption limit of £10,100, and any gain in capital assets above that are subject to CGT and the rate is going from 18% to 28%. So ... anyone with a large gain in the value of a property that isn't their 'principle private residence' is going to be thinking awfully hard about getting out ahead of that CGT clobbering.

    Note - I'm not arguing whether the rise was right or wrong, whether it's fairer or not. I'm pointing out that in going from where we were to where we are now, you provide another motive for property flooding onto the market, which alone will drive prices down and is not, in and of itself, anything to do with the economic outlook. It's merely a reaction to a tax change and, as such, is again a short-term variation not a trend.

    On the other hand, there's no doubt from retail figures that consumer spending is down and when the consumer is cautious and (economically) conservative, the last thing they tend to do is move home. That is a trend factor, as is the current throttling of mortgage availability by cautious and retrenching banks.

    And on that one, government (especially the last one) had a role to play. If you tell banks "you're over-geared and over-extended, so recapitalise", and at the same time you tell them "lend more to businesses and on home mortgages ", they are going to say "huh?" I'd be confused by that, too. It's akin to the back-seat drivers "turn left, right".


    What worries me is the scale of the coming cuts. I (and some others) have been saying on here for quite some time that the pain is still to come and that the "recession", which technically has been over for some time now, was largely phantom, at least to the consumer, because the reduction in interest rates left a lot of people actually better off. So unless you were one of the unlucky few that got restricted hours, reduced pay or, worse yet, laid off entirely, you've probably done quite well in the last couple of years.

    But the message is now getting through to people that the next few years, and it is years, aren't going to be fun. And the message should be getting through, because the government have been saying it for long enough.

    At the bottom of all this is the one great unanswerable question .... we are going to feel serious pain from all these cuts, and it is going to slow the economy down and does risk a double-dip, but would it be worse if we didn't do it?

    The answer to that is that nobody, and I mean absolutely nobody, knows. Lots of people have opinions and theories, me included. The Chancellor does, the BofE does, the IMF, OECD and every economist from first year students to professors and heads of think tanks probably do, but absolutely none of them whatsoever know, or ever will.

    What I would say seems self-evident is that there is a problem that has to be dealt with, namely first the deficit, and then the debt. It's like trying to run a marathon in shackles, with an anchor chained to your leg. The question is .... is it right to lose the marathon for the next year or two, or to risk coming 17th in every race for the next decade or two. it'll be very painful if we act drastically, as the government is clearly going to do. But it'll be very painful if we don't. And in no small part, blame that muppet Brown for getting us into this mess.

  10. Received thanks from:

    LWA (12-08-2010),Scott B (11-08-2010)

  11. #7
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Hampshire
    Posts
    571
    Thanks
    21
    Thanked
    11 times in 10 posts
    • Fatboy40's system
      • Motherboard:
      • Asus A8N-E
      • CPU:
      • A64 X2 4200+ @ 2420 MHz
      • Memory:
      • 2GB
      • Storage:
      • 200GB SATA
      • Graphics card(s):
      • PNY 8800 GTS 320 - 648 ROP/1512 Shader/1053 Mem
      • PSU:
      • 400w Enermax
      • Operating System:
      • Windows 7 Pro x86
      • Monitor(s):
      • 17" Acer Flat Screen

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    Quote Originally Posted by Saracen View Post
    What worries me is the scale of the coming cuts...
    It's the big concern for myself as well.

    For example the cut backs on school rebuilding, with probably architects/planners feeling the effects first in the massive drop off in work (for those that specialise in this area, there's at least one local to me that I'm aware of) and the ripples going out from there that will last for years, all the way down to the local sandwich van that the builders would have visited.

    I've not seen any work done on it, but I'd like to see someone try and predict the amount of redundancies that will occur throughout the entire chain due to all government cuts and not just those civil servants at risk which is all we seem to here about, as I can only imagine that it's going to be a massive amount of people !.
    I'm not fat and I'm not 40

    Quote Originally Posted by JPreston View Post
    I'm pretty disappointed that in the 21st century so much human endeavour and industry is still devoted to ascertaining whose imaginary sky-fairy is best...

  12. #8
    Seething Cauldron of Hatred TheAnimus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    17,168
    Thanks
    803
    Thanked
    2,152 times in 1,408 posts

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    Well you can't take a figure like that with any accuracy, as with the alternative there would be massive borrowing required, which can create issues (look at say Argentina for all the gory details) or massive tax hikes which would reduce the money in circulation, meaning people can't afford the new office for the architect or workers therein or even for those who still have jobs to have enough cash left over for the sandwich van.

    Its a balance to strike, that is very hard to remotely accurately predict, on both the micro and macro scale.

    Personally I find it absolutely fascinating! It is also why I'm strongly opposed to governmental meddling because they think they can do better on every level.
    throw new ArgumentException (String, String, Exception)

  13. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    4,932
    Thanks
    171
    Thanked
    383 times in 310 posts
    • badass's system
      • Motherboard:
      • ASUS P8Z77-m pro
      • CPU:
      • Core i5 3570K
      • Memory:
      • 32GB
      • Storage:
      • 1TB Samsung 850 EVO, 2TB WD Green
      • Graphics card(s):
      • Radeon RX 580
      • PSU:
      • Corsair HX520W
      • Case:
      • Silverstone SG02-F
      • Operating System:
      • Windows 10 X64
      • Monitor(s):
      • Del U2311, LG226WTQ
      • Internet:
      • 80/20 FTTC

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    Quote Originally Posted by Saracen View Post
    But the message is now getting through to people that the next few years, and it is years, aren't going to be fun. And the message should be getting through, because the government have been saying it for long enough.
    As you say, the message should be going through. Unfortunately it's not. Most people support government cutbacks and accept they are necessary. Provided they don't effect them.
    The only thing that gave me less faith in the human race was in the run up to the election. Every single person interviewed made it clear that they were voting for what's best for them and them alone. Not their neighborhood, town, region or country. Just them personally. And we wonder why we have politicians that run the country like they do.
    "In a perfect world... spammers would get caught, go to jail, and share a cell with many men who have enlarged their penises, taken Viagra and are looking for a new relationship."

  14. #10
    Senior Member AGTDenton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Bracknell
    Posts
    2,697
    Thanks
    984
    Thanked
    825 times in 541 posts
    • AGTDenton's system
      • Motherboard:
      • MSI MEG X570S ACE MAX
      • CPU:
      • AMD 5950x
      • Memory:
      • 32GB Corsair something or the other
      • Storage:
      • 1x 512GB nvme, 1x 2TB nvme, 2x 8TB HDD
      • Graphics card(s):
      • ASUS 3080 Ti TuF
      • PSU:
      • Corsair RM850x
      • Case:
      • Fractal Design Torrent White
      • Operating System:
      • 11 Pro x64
      • Internet:
      • Fibre

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    I now know why my landlord wants me to sign a 3 year contract at the current rate.
    Not a chance me thinks!!!

  15. #11
    Admin (Ret'd)
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    18,481
    Thanks
    1,016
    Thanked
    3,208 times in 2,281 posts

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data

    Quote Originally Posted by badass View Post
    As you say, the message should be going through. Unfortunately it's not. Most people support government cutbacks and accept they are necessary. Provided they don't effect them. ....
    I think it is finally sinking in, and it's reflected in a general nervousness about the future. People are, in large numbers, being cautious, because they're concerned about price rises and wage restraint, and because they're especially concerned about job security. I think the drip-drip-drip in the last couple of months about cuts here and cuts there is finally getting through, that it is coming, it is serious and it's getting rather imminent. In fact it's started, but so far we've seen is a snowflake perched on the tip of the iceberg. We haven't yet even seen the tip of the berg itself, but people are starting to sense there's something big and dangerous in the waters. And it's making them jumpy.

  16. #12
    Butter king GheeTsar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    The shire of berks
    Posts
    2,106
    Thanks
    153
    Thanked
    260 times in 163 posts
    • GheeTsar's system
      • Motherboard:
      • Gigabyte GA-Z68XP-UD3P
      • CPU:
      • Intel i5 2500k
      • Memory:
      • Corsair 8GB
      • Storage:
      • Samsung EVO 850 1 TB + 2 x 1TB Storage
      • Graphics card(s):
      • ASUS Radeon R9 280X
      • PSU:
      • Tagan TG600-U33 600W
      • Case:
      • Fractal Design Define R3
      • Operating System:
      • Windows 10
      • Monitor(s):
      • Acer 24" 120Hz GD245HQ
      • Internet:
      • Virgin 100mb

    Re: Analysis - Double-dip fears grow amid mixed economic data


  17. Received thanks from:

    Fatboy40 (13-08-2010)

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •