News - Windows will play second fiddle to Android in 2016

[HEXUS]

So says research giant IDC.

Read more.

[crossy]

In summary, the predicted devices shipped figures for 2016 are these; Android 31.1 per cent, Windows x86 25.1 per cent, Apple iOS 17.3 per cent and other smart connected devices 26.5 per cent. Personally I would guesstimate a low teens percentage of the other devices could be Windows on ARM devices. WoA seems to have been passed over in the IDC analysis.

Hmm, I'd love to have a crystal ball and see how many of that "Win/x86" percentage is down to WinPhone devices running on an Intel platform (although I'm not 100% convinced that this is really "x86"). Other than those, Win/x86 is desktops - so are we really going moving from desktops to these fancy mobile devices?

I'm also willing to bet - like the Hexus reporter - that a lot of the "other" category are going to be Win8 tablets. As far as I'm concerned I really can't see Android tablets damaging iPad's lead by anything more than a point or two (although I'd love to be wrong). On the other hand I'm pretty sure that a Win8 tablet is going to be a far easier "sell" against iPad, and it's also got Android's advantage (that more than one company will be doing hardware), so it's got a real chance of upsetting Apple's current dominance in that market.

Interesting times ahead

[Brewster0101]

Most pointless story. There is no way of forecasting this data. It is nothing more than some bunch of people justifying their jobs by producing absolute rubbish figures.

4 years ago no one would have predicted the massive rise of Android, the demise of RIM or the near end of Nokia.

Complete CRAP.....

[cameronlite]

It was sunny yesterday... it was sunny today - it will be sunny forever.

Using their forecasting logic...

[shaithis]

Even if the number of Android installs overtakes Windows......I foresee it being a very long tome before Android is a more profitable platform.

Still....we all know about statistics!

[cheesemp]

Even if the number of Android installs overtakes Windows......I foresee it being a very long tome before Android is a more profitable platform.

Still....we all know about statistics!

Do you think Microsoft can get away with charging £30 (I think thats roughly what Dell et all pay as OEM) for Windows on ARM/Windows phone 8? I expect microsoft will have to almost give it away to get traction now. After all if you where a manufacture would you put on Android and pay a few dollars licensing fees on patients or pay Microsoft £30 for a platform with less traction on ARM? I think Microsoft are going to need deep pockets to get market share this time.

[Hicks12]

Think you're missing one thing cheese, most of the manufacturers will be hit by Microsoft if they use Android as they will need to pay for the patents, i reckon the cost is getting near the price of a windows license.

Im sure both will do well though! Stats can be made to show anything, these are figures even i could come up with! Its always funny looking at the results of people being thrown money. I wish i got money chucked at me to say that

Apple will continue its mobile device domination (in terms of profit)
Android will continue to take market share and be OMG epic.
Windows will continue as it is in the desktop/laptop sector and in mobiles it OS will gain ~10%.

Its silly these figures . We all know that if Apple throw out an ugly and shoddy device(personally thats all of them ) then they will crumble. Windows is heading to its make or break moment, if Windows 8 can launch successfully (i want them to make it much better for traditional desktops, its naff.) then they will gain not only the desktop market which they destroy but the fact they will have an eco system 99% better than Apple due to the majority having Windows, it could mean everyone starts buying windows and so the windows 8 market continues but the windows 8 phone/tablet will just skyrocket pass both android and apple.

Will be an interesting year thats for sure.

[cheesemp]

Think you're missing one thing cheese, most of the manufacturers will be hit by Microsoft if they use Android as they will need to pay for the patents, i reckon the cost is getting near the price of a windows license.

I think you've missed my point - Microsoft charge in the region of a few dollars for android patient protection licenses. Thats roughly what they charge for windows phone 7 licenses. My point was regarding the comment about Windows desktop OS being profitable - Currently Microsoft make £30 a PC. I don't see how they can charge that much for Windows on ARM (for tablets) and expect to make any head way against android at a few dollars (and hence why it won't be profitable for Microsoft). Lets face it manufactures such as ASUS and the like are fighting Apple hard and every dollar cheaper on the end product is something they'll look for - hence why Microsoft need it to be cheap or its a dead duck.

Edit: Also I know some of you would happily pay £30 more for a windows tablet but will the average consumer when it makes it more expensive than an ipad?

[Hicks12]

Maybe i have, i thought that it was more in the region of $15 - $20, still you're right that it is cheaper to go android BUT depending on how well MS do with the windows 8 will depend if its worth the extra price, if its a fully optimised OS which can run flawlessly on low end hardware then its won as hardware manufacturers can just shove the lower stuff in and the users will be happy .

Its hard for me to judge in terms of the tablet market though, i personally havent got one and I wont be getting one anytime soon, for me personally i find them to be extremely overpriced (ipad/galaxy tab), its a phone with a bigger battery and screen yet it costs alot more... i remember the days when it was a premium to have a smaller device with the same processing power (smartphones) but its at the point where you pay around the same which for me is silly. A phone does everything for me and for any productivity i use my dekstop or laptop, my desktop cost me LESS than a ipad/galaxy tablet, its depressing really when mine boots within seconds and from standby its as quick (or close enough ) to waking my phone from sleep.

I can understand tablets at the £100 mark but for me to consider anything above that it has to have some general usage and thats exactly where intel come in, proper hardware so we can run all these x86 /x64 applications . Then i can understand a price there but thats it.


(/end of my slightly off topic rant about pricing )

to your edit, i think if £30 is all thats in it between the ipad and a windows tab then MS and the OEM of that tab have already lost! It is stupid to sell it near Apples stuff as for some reason their products demand higher prices, marketing is key and no other company seems to do it better than apple so no they couldnt get away with that, thankfully!.

[shaithis]

Profitability isn't just the cost of the OS license.

Think of the money they make from selling Office, Windows Server, Exchange, etc. Microsoft will push hard the integration features so that each offering props-up others.

[cheesemp]

Profitability isn't just the cost of the OS license.

Think of the money they make from selling Office, Windows Server, Exchange, etc. Microsoft will push hard the integration features so that each offering props-up others.

Yes that is true. Still don't think they'll make the margins off of windows like they use to on a PC. It'll also be interesting to see how popular Exchange/Office are in the longer term (more so in SMB) with so much slowly transitioning to cloud based. I've seen a few small companies switch to Gmail/GDocs just to save hardware/software/management costs...

[crossy]

Its hard for me to judge in terms of the tablet market though, i personally havent got one and I wont be getting one anytime soon, [snipped] I can understand tablets at the £100 mark but for me to consider anything above that it has to have some general usage and thats exactly where intel come in, proper hardware so we can run all these x86 /x64 applications . Then i can understand a price there but thats it.

Now I do have a tablet, and I can pretty much promise you that Win8/x86 tablets are going to be a disappointment to a lot of folks out there. There seems to be this "blue sky" idea that you'll be able to have something iPad size/weight and decent battery life that'll seamlessly run pretty much anything you can run on a desktop ... this won't happen. (This isn't a criticism aimed at you btw!)

Look at the Ultrabooks - there's already been complaints that these are way too expensive(£700+) to be the sling-em-around portable devices that the form factor promises. And does anyone think that a tablet will be different? Of course not!

No, for me, it's the ARM-powered Windows tablets that'll be interesting. They'll have to be priced at, or below iPad (otherwise why not just buy that well established iPad?) but since the hardware will be broadly similar to iPad and Android tablets, it'll be the software that makes the difference. And with due deference to Apple, this is where Microsoft have the potential to do very well indeed - as you yourself point out - Apple's tablet has the advantage of wide software support, whereas Android has wide hardware vendor support. Microsoft can call on both of these (big assumption on my part - but there's been a lot of press about how a Win8 project can easily be switched from x86 to ARM and vice-versa)

That said, I don't think Windows tablets will become #1 in the short to medium term, although I do suspect that they'll steal a lot of sales from both iPads and Android devices, (unless Windows 8 Tablet Edition turns out to be another Windows Me or Vista). But if the threat of Windows Tablets forces Apple, Google, et al to up their game then so much the better for us consumers.

[3dcandy]

I can see one easy way that Android could become a lot bigger than it is in the hardware market...a standardised charging/connection port like the iPad. All the docks etc. would fit other makes and bingo!

[crossy]

I can see one easy way that Android could become a lot bigger than it is in the hardware market...a standardised charging/connection port like the iPad. All the docks etc. would fit other makes and bingo!

Hmm, yes standardised connector would be a very good idea - interestingly enough I was looking at the cable for a Galaxy Tab the other day and it looks VERY similar to the one that I use for my Transformer. So if it is the same then all Google has to do is order Motorola to use that for Xoom3 and we're in business. Having the standard connector would make possible all kinds of interesting hardware - most prevalent in my mind at the moment would be some kind of gamepad interface.

Got to smile though - I was on another site and a Apple fanboi was saying how crap the 'droid gear was because they don't have a standard connector, yet all three iPads do. But he kind of overlooked the reason WHY the iPads use the same connector.

[Whiternoise]

Still use my laptop and I'm moving to an ultrabook or a Macbook Air in the future. I want something that's well built and going to last, not a tablet with low specs a removable keyboard. Cost isn't really an issue, I'd rather pay £1000 and have something that lasts for 3 or 4 years than pay £500 and have it break partway through.

I can see one easy way that Android could become a lot bigger than it is in the hardware market...a standardised charging/connection port like the iPad. All the docks etc. would fit other makes and bingo!

The problem isn't so much the connector - virtually everyone uses MicroUSB these days - but the hardware form factor. iPod docks are good because they hug the contour of the device so it doesn't wobble or stress the jack. There are way too many android devices with different shapes.

What's more likely, I think, is that in the future more phones will switch to wireless charging and data transfer. OS X has some feature where you can link two laptops over a wifi network even if there isn't a router around, that's what Android needs, better than bluetooth which is horribly clunky. The hardware is there, just need to implement it. You can create a wifi hotspot, why not extend that to browsing files on the device wirelessly (without 3rd party applications)?

This way all you need is a charging pad that's also connected to your laptop or media system and everything goes from there.

[Lord Midas]

Wow, if they can see 3 years into the future why aren't they predicting themselves winning lottery numbers. I'm with Brewster0101... who in 3 years will have a tag called Brewster1616, etc