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Thread: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

  1. #81
    Now with added sobriety Rave's Avatar
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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    Quote Originally Posted by nichomach View Post
    OK, how many cars do you see on the road that are German. VWs, Audis etc. How many more based on German components, Seats, Skodas etc. Someone must be buying their stuff, eh? As I say, though, the proof is right there - they have more complex, deeper economies and they have been hit less hard by, and emerged more quickly from, recession.
    ....and more importantly, Germany generally has a net positive balance of trade, which is why we as a country are massively in debt, and they are not.

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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    I learn much more by reading Hexus than I do in the news!

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    Seething Cauldron of Hatred TheAnimus's Avatar
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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    Quote Originally Posted by nichomach View Post
    Sorry, but that last didn't seem to make sense at all, just in grammatical terms.
    edit: That sounds grammar nazi-ish, sorry, that wasn't my intention; I was just having a little difficulty following your train of thought - by "vol", do you mean "volume"?
    Volatility sorry financial jargon combined with my dislexia often leads to poor communication.

    basically, think standard deviation, on the log return of daily close prices.

    As for the CIA factbook link, its not really a relevant indicator. I mean for a start its quanto'd in USD..........
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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    Fundamentally, there's not only a deep seated structural difference in the make-up between the German and the UK economy, but crucially also in how the financial service sector interacts with the manufacturing sector in each country.

    In the Anglo-Saxon economies of the UK and the US, manufacturers are often beholden to rent-seeking institutional shareholders, from banks to hedge and pension funds to insurance companies etc. (the "finance industry"), and are often also force to maximise short-term shareholder return/value rather than the long-term interest of the manufacturer and its employees. In contrast, German companies are governed by what is know as the Vorstand and the Aufsichtsrat, which comprises not only co. directors, but also employee representatives and those appointed by financing institutions.

    The relationship between the banks, the company and its employees is therefore that much more intimate and long-term than those found in Anglo-Saxon economies. The finance sector is therefore seen as there to provide long-term financial services and support to the economy as a whole rather than being a separate, purely rent-seeking part of it. Ultimately, out of social-political necessity, the German Soziale Marktwirtschaft or Social market economy regards social-political and economic advancement as being grounded in a balanced and broad based approach rather than one that is overly specialised or imbalanced. Therefore, while German/French financial institutions are often regarded as less successful/sexy than their Anglo-Saxon counterpart, consider how many German/French bank failures there are compare to UK/US.

    Now the billion Pounds question: consider why certain animals go extinct and others survive and what is it that make the human species so successful relatively speaking.

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  7. #85
    Will work for beer... nichomach's Avatar
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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheAnimus View Post
    Volatility sorry financial jargon combined with my dislexia often leads to poor communication.
    basically, think standard deviation, on the log return of daily close prices.
    Thanks for the clarification .
    Quote Originally Posted by TheAnimus View Post
    As for the CIA factbook link, its not really a relevant indicator. I mean for a start its quanto'd in USD..........
    Measures of absolute and relative GDP aren't relevant...? *cough* Also, whether one's counting it in pounds, euros, dollars or cowrie shells surely doesn't make any difference. If one's arguing that we are worth so much more than France or Germany, then the relative values are surely what matters.

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    Seething Cauldron of Hatred TheAnimus's Avatar
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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    The problem is that is about the ONLY time i've seen that suggested, when looking at GDP per Capita, its clearly the UK who has been doing consistently better, now this is probably in no small part thanks to the fall of the berlin wall (wait a second, we're going off topic, and Nazi's will be in soon).

    The problem with such a study is they might look at say an average northern wage, living in London unless they are careful, because the UK we have quite a large middle class gap, of people who are earning under £30k.

    As such, I would say its simply easier to look at GDP per capita only, or define your own basket of goods. (effort increase).

    Either way, economically speaking, the UK has been doing better than germany, and considering our lower national debt (actually, now I think we've over taken them mabye?) we are much better off.
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    Will work for beer... nichomach's Avatar
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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    Then we differ; I'd say that there's solid evidence that economically we're worthn about the same in absolute GDP and in GDP purchasing as France and less than Germany by a fair margin. The contention that we're "worth lots more" simply isn't borne out by observation. Incidentally, the part about national debt is worth noting; Germany and France both operate higher levels of debt than we do generally, but that doesn't hurt them, because their economies are less inherently fragile than ours - that's why they haven't been hit as hard and are coming out faster. That said, our debt is set to rise severely. Even after that rise, though, we have operated with debt running a lot higher ( http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk...ebt_chart.html ) in the past, not that I'm suggesting that's a good thing, but we have.

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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    Quote Originally Posted by nichomach View Post
    It's fine to have a service industry component to your economy, it's not fine to decide that you're going to make that pretty much the sole foundation of your economy.
    For smaller countries, like Singapore, it is perhaps the only option and they haven't crashed and burnt so far. Of course, the size of their economy do not compare to the UK and I would expect a smaller country to be easier to run well than a larger one, but still, they are pretty much entirely service based.

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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    Quote Originally Posted by Zak33 View Post
    and bees... you forgot to mention the bees... or lack of them.

    without them, we're all FUBAR.
    Ah yes the Bees... the single most important animal to human agriculture, Colony Collapse Disorder (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_collapse_disorder) may yet sting us in the Butt
    If Wisdom is the coordination of "knowledge and experience" and its deliberate use to improve well being then how come "Ignorance is bliss"

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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    Italy's economy has overtaken ours as well now......

    It represents a double humiliation for Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, who have repeatedly pledged that the UK is better-placed to withstand the recession than other major countries.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-by-Italy.html

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    Asking silly questions menthel's Avatar
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    Re: Remember I told you we were all screwed?

    Quote Originally Posted by SeriousSam View Post
    Ah yes the Bees... the single most important animal to human agriculture, Colony Collapse Disorder (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_collapse_disorder) may yet sting us in the Butt
    The bees worry me most as well. Economy collapses we are knackered. Bees die and the whole planet is in the poopy stuff!
    Not around too often!

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