National Lottery - Probabilty and number selection

[Fraz]

Well, each to their own. I'd rather give the few quid a week directly to charity, without the lottery tax along the way. The odds are so long as to be ridiculous, not to mention unexciting (to me, at least).

Besides, surely the better thing to do is to just go to a bookies and bet that you can guess this week's lottery numbers. Then, if you get it right, you're guaranteed to be getting ~£10+ million (13,983,816 to 1 odds, right?) rather than sharing the pot. No idea if this is actually possible, but certainly seems like the better way of doing things to me.

[The_Wheelhouse]

Besides, surely the better thing to do is to just go to a bookies and bet that you can guess this week's lottery numbers. Then, if you get it right, you're guaranteed to be getting ~£10+ million (13,983,816 to 1 odds, right?) rather than sharing the pot. No idea if this is actually possible, but certainly seems like the better way of doing things to me.

Hmm interesting, but if you only 5 right you won't get anything

... and no indirect way of donating to charity.

[MadduckUK]

... and no indirect way of donating to charity.

meh, probably better that way - you get more control

not that this idea would actually fly, but anyway

[Saracen]

why stop at the lotto then, think of all the other lotteries that you are not winning right now because you are not taking part. how can you sleep at night seeing theoretical win after theoretical win pass you by is what i want to know.

Way to go selectively quoting and taking something WAY out of context.

What part of the preceding bit of the paragraph you quoted don't you understand?

The chances of getting a really big win, or indeed a jackpot, are very small indeed but if you do, it's a life-changing event. So, for most of us, does a quid or two a week really make much of a difference? No. Will we get a financial return on it? Probably not. But do you get an entertainment value from it? Do you get a buzz from the possibility of a big win? Perhaps?

I sleep completely free from concerns about the lottery, largely because I rarely do it. If I happen to be passing a ticket office and the mood catches me, I might have a ticket. Mostly, I don't.

You slap on a rolleyes and then try to parody what I said by implying I think I might be missing out on some win. That's pretty much the opposite of what I said, and a parody which is typical of the attitude of a few people on this forum that gets me really annoyed.

[Salazaar]

One day I'll will the lottery, one day I'll play the lottery.

[MadduckUK]

If I happen to be passing a ticket office and the mood catches me, I might have a ticket. Mostly, I don't.

try hard.

anyway, good luck tomorrow

[Rave]

The chances of getting a really big win, or indeed a jackpot, are very small indeed but if you do, it's a life-changing event. So, for most of us, does a quid or two a week really make much of a difference? No. Will we get a financial return on it? Probably not. But do you get an entertainment value from it? Do you get a buzz from the possibility of a big win? Perhaps? Do you get a chance, albeit a very small one, of a life-changing win? Only if you stump up the pound or two.

Anyone doing it as an investment because they expect to win is a naive optimist. Unless they win, at which point it was the best few quid they ever spent.

But if you're doing it because you can afford it and because you want to .... go right on. And why not?

I totally agree, that's my attitude too. I played the lottery with the same numbers every week from the first week- illegally at first, as I was 15 1/2 when it started. Carried on for about three years, in which time I won 10 quid- on the draw that took place on a Sunday, as Diana's funeral was on the Saturday. Next time a royal dies, I'm going all in. On the rare occasion that I failed to buy a ticket the draw was far more exciting- "YES! That's not my number. YES! That's not mine either!"

But I stopped when they introduced the Wednesday draw. The overall jackpots went down, and they doubled the weekly subscription fee- and as a skint student, that actually mattered to me. Now I just play when there's a decent rollover- I still use my original numbers on the original National Lottery, and go for a lucky dip on the Euro Millions.

And- I know the odds (approx 70m-1 for the Euro Millions), and I don't expect to win. 1 or 2 quid buys me a day or two of very pleasant daydreaming when I'm stood by the side of the road, possibly in the rain, watching buses come and go. The last big Euro Millions Rollover was especially sweet, as the winner took a day to come forward. I hadn't checked my ticket, so that was an extra day of possibility for me. I eventually checked my ticket- I had no numbers at all- but it was well worth the money IMO.

[Kumagoro]

I say change your numbers and like Syllopsium said choose numbers in a way that
most people wont. So have several high numbers and a couple in sequence like

22 29 36 41 43 44

That way if you do win chances are you win more.

[finlay666]

The fun concept of trials, this reminds me of one of my favourite interview questions to ask, see this excellent wikipedia article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

I first heard about it from watching 21, it's quite an interesting concept.

The other one I like is the loaded revolver question:
2 consecutive chambers in a standard 6 chamber revolver are loaded with bullets, the chamber is spun and put against your head and the trigger pulled, you can choose to spin the chamber after a successful round (where you dont die obviously)
Assuming you survive the first round do you spin or not for the second round?

[scaryjim]

The other one I like is the loaded revolver question:
2 consecutive chambers in a standard 6 chamber revolver are loaded with bullets, the chamber is spun and put against your head and the trigger pulled, you can choose to spin the chamber after a successful round (where you dont die obviously)
Assuming you survive the first round do you spin or not for the second round?

No.

If you've survived the first round, you've picked one of four empty chambers, and only one of those four chambers would be followed by a bullet, so you've got a 3/4 chance of not shooting yourself on the second pull. If you spin, you've got a 2/3 chance of not landing on a bullet. So your chances are greater if you don't spin.

Only, that's the intuitive answer, isn't it? So I don't see where the puzzle is...

[finlay666]

No.

If you've survived the first round, you've picked one of four empty chambers, and only one of those four chambers would be followed by a bullet, so you've got a 3/4 chance of not shooting yourself on the second pull. If you spin, you've got a 2/3 chance of not landing on a bullet. So your chances are greater if you don't spin.

Only, that's the intuitive answer, isn't it? So I don't see where the puzzle is...

Intuitive... well common answer is to spin again as it's seen as a 5 chamber gun so 4/5 you pick an empty chamber which is where the problems start

[SammEl]

Yeah it's strange, the odds of the same numbers coming up are the same as you winning the lottery.

But, you could look at it like this.

The odds of the numbers being the same every week - Do you ever see this happening? It's extremely rare, happens every 20 - 50 years.

The odds of a new set of numbers winning - It happens every single week (apart from the week that will get the same numbers twice)

So, you are better off changing your numbers if you do win the lottery.

(but hell, if you do win, I'm sure you can afford two bloody lines, a tramp can afford two lines)

[TheAnimus]

So, you are better off changing your numbers if you do win the lottery.

Please read the thread and redact your comment as required.

[finlay666]

The odds of the numbers being the same every week - Do you ever see this happening? It's extremely rare, happens every 20 - 50 years.

So that's why it happened last year (and has happened before in other countries including Mexico)?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...ght-draws.html

[scaryjim]

Intuitive... well common answer is to spin again as it's seen as a 5 chamber gun so 4/5 you pick an empty chamber which is where the problems start

but - the problems *says* it's a six chamber gun! So - the common answer is just plain dumb? I mean, I'm as cynical as the next person (and the next person on this occasion is my wife, so that's pretty damn cynical!) but surely most people aren't *that* dumb?

[finlay666]

but - the problems *says* it's a six chamber gun! So - the common answer is just plain dumb? I mean, I'm as cynical as the next person (and the next person on this occasion is my wife, so that's pretty damn cynical!) but surely most people aren't *that* dumb?

It's not being dumb, it's about approaching the problem the wrong way, there are a lot of puzzles that are very simple if you approach them correctly but most approach them in the wrong way