melon (30-11-2011)
When I was a student in London I'd buy/sell bullion @ ATSBullion (at the Savoy) as they have a good reputation. I also went with a safe deposit @ Harrods as I'd frequent it quite often and their rates were very reasonable not to mention the superb service.
Krugerrands are my personal preference as this form of bullion is easy to transport when travelling and not to mention that they tend to carry a lower spot price, i.e. when you buy bullion the selling institution will keep a profit (obviously) and this increases as the form of bullion goes up, say 999 gramme gold bar.
It's also harder to move gold when it's heavier as its value is much higher. Also you should keep an eye on Kitco to find a good time to 'buy'. Back in the day, pre-global recession I recall paying somewhere around £300 for a single Krugerrand and now they are going for well over £1,100 a coin.
A friend of mine purchased a Patek annual calendar about a year back; he is able to 'sell' it back to his UK jeweller for a £4,000 profit at anytime (now) if he feels like consolidating his 'collection' for a higher-grade piece.
The same can be said of vintage Patek and vintage Rolexes - it's a hobby I've not gotten into myself, for now at least!
Depends what you mean by "lose out".
Did Brown sell gold at below the price pad for it? Dunno. Did he sell at the bottom of the market and way, WAY below what it'd be worth now if the stupid <bleep> had not been greedy for money? Hell, yes, with (solid gold) bells on!
So the question is ... will paper fail?
Gold is at a historic high at the moment, largely due to insecurities in national currencies, not least the euro (which isn't exactly national), and due to lack of confidence in the near-term future.
So right now, gold is a bet on the way things turn out. If the euro collapses, buy gold now will probably have been a smart move. If they find a solution, and the real risk passes unrealised, confidence could recover and money flow back into other asset classes. If that happens, the current gold price will drop, and quite possibly, far and fast.
Gold will always, in the predictable future, be valuable, but it won't necessarily hold it's current price, or not necessarily even anywhere near it. My bet would be it will go up some yet, but it is a bet, not a fact.
Personally, I'm not convinced of that, either.
Property prices are always of function of demand, and we've seen something of a bubble in recent years. And demand levels are based on several factors, not least general confidence, and of course, the ability to get and afford mortgages. Banks are reluctant to lend right now, and require typically large deposits, which for first time buyers, are hard to impossible to afford. As a result, the market is slow.
Ow take a look at the economic outlook. The US in the poop, the eurozone hovering on the edge of a calamity, and possibly a breakup or restructure, and many predictions for a eurozone recession on the back of the sovereign debt problems. OBR central forecasts for the UK are that we won't go into recession, but growth is still predicted as modest as hell for a couple of years, and out debt/deficit problems are worse than expected, unemployment is going up, the structural element is bigger than previously thought and the outlook not good at all.
Given all that, and what I said about availability and affordability of mortgages, and general confidence, is property a safe bet? Not as an investment, IMHO. Remember what happened in the late 80as to early 90s. Property prices more or less halved over a couple of years, from their peak. We could well be looking at that happening again, especially if the OBRs central forecast proves overly optimism, and that central forecast is predicated on the eurozone leaders navigating a way though this crisis and ensuring long-term sovereign debt stability, which is something I sure wouldn't want to bet my house on right now.
To be honest, I'm seriously thinking about selling the house and moving into rented accommodation for a year or two, though that isn't only about the economic climate.
Ultimately, gold, assuming you own gold and not just paper certificates, is only useful under 2 circumstances.
1) you can actually get your hands on any bricks/shavings that you own
and
2) someone else is willing to exchange it for something you want
Since you cant eat gold, and its not really useful for making anything, somewhere down the line no one will want it or youll end up without any yourself and equally stuffed.
bsodmike (29-11-2011)
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