North Korea - South Korea

[TooNice]

There's a good chance they'd go for Japan rather than SK - Koreans (north and south) think of Korea as a single country so it would be like nuking your own people to nuke the South.

It wouldn't be the first time a dictator decides declares war on "it's own people". Besides, wouldn't the people on the other side, siding with the US, treacherous rebels?

[ehhhhhhh]

I thought the US has sent their best man to deal with the tension. Can it be possible that he have failed?

[csgohan4]

If North Korea go Nuclear there is no Winner and undoubtedly, North Korea will be wiped off the face of the Earth as the Chinese / Russians won't be able to defend/Veto them at the UN council

Funnily enough I dreamt Canary Wharf was Wiped out by a Nuclear Strike, weird

[Lucio]

The biggest risk is that if North Korea does use nuclear weapons, that the West doesn't retaliate in kind due to the risk of upsetting the Chinese from adding to the fallout. That may get interepted as we can't or won't use them and undermine's the idea of mutually assured destruction. It also paves the way for using small tactical nukes in future conflicts.

[csgohan4]

Then the point of having trident Nuclear Sub as deterrents would be pointless?

[peterb]

The Chinese voted for additional sanctions against DPNK, the last thing they would want is a scrap, never mind a nuclear one, to threaten their increasingly powerful economy.

Their difficulty is keeping their erstwhile (rogue) ally in check, while avoiding being seen to be supporting them. A difficult diplomatic position for them.

Then the point of having trident Nuclear Sub as deterrents would be pointless?

The point of Trident was that an attack against one NATO nation was an attack on all - but the NATO treaty was fashioned in the wake if the second world war, under the threat of invasion of Europe by the Warsaw pact countries. (Ad an aside, the Warsaw pact was signed after the USSR applied (unsuccessfully) for NATO membership.. Further war in Europe was also considered by the USA not to be in their interests, which is why they are the largest contributor to the NATO budget.

However, given that they are the largest contributor, they might reasonably expect NATO nations to come to their aid.

The other point is that a credible deterrent is only credible if the object of that deterrence understands the outcome, cares about the outcome, and believes that there is a political will to use the deterrent.

However, if I were a gambling man, I'd bet a tenner that in a deep hole somewhere, there are some crisis planning teams looking at the situation.

[watercooled]

It looks like a game of bluff-calling, NK (or the new glorious leader) trying to prove they can push US/SK around without retaliation. And to an extent it's working, the sinking of the Cheonan, shelling of various islands, nuclear tests. And in return, the US/SK have essentially called them a naughty boy. Even small-scale retaliation would risk a massive war of attrition, which NK are probably prepared for but not the US.

All the US's technical armament wouldn't make it a pushover. Sure, the Fishbeds wouldn't last long in the air vs modern SAMs/fighters, but why would they use them that way? Occasionally scrambling a few from hardened hangars on a suicide mission to destroy attack choppers would be hard to fully protect against/predict. Then, they have a fair few SAMs to pop up in the middle of an assault. They might be fairly old, but again would be useful against more vulnerable aircraft like choppers.

This is no desert conflict, you can't immediately spot a tennis ball blowing in the wind from 50 miles away and fill it full of DU. And then there's the likely massive deep tunnel/bunker system, likely far too deep for even ground-penetrating munitions.

And don't forget about China. As much as they might be getting annoyed with NK, they're still unlikely to want the US to push right up to their border (again). Maybe they'll make secret agreements with the US e.g. they can only retaliate, not start anything, not push above a certain latitude, under what conditions (if any) NBC would be allowed, etc. I can't see the US wanting to end up fighting against China, and possibly Russia.

And then there's the political side of things e.g. even if the NK government was destroyed, most of the population are (or at least appear to be, maybe out of fear) brainwashed - would they surrender?

[rox0r]

Seems they do have 'long range rockets' after all...

[TheAnimus]

So things are still escalating.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ack-on-US.html

China has been putting armoured infantry with their border on the North, the Southern one is about as hostile as it can be already.

The US are moving more missile defences, just in case.

Is this just posturing, another form of the Cuban Missile fiasco?

The fact of the matter is they are not thought to have sufficient nuclear weapons to do much damage, people have speculated that in co-operation with the US it is unlikely they would be able to score much of a hit on Soul.

However as a conventional war goes, it could get very, very bloody. Whilst DPRK might be stuck on WW2 level technology, a major capital city is only a few KM from the DMZ. It would be impractical to compete with against artillery which could easily disrupt ROK, constant surgical air strikes against sites might hold it off, but literally at what cost, for every smart munition the DPRK could just have more sites.

DPRK would certainly not be above forcing people to march across the minefield in the DMZ either.

Including all reserve personal, ROK have some 3.5M men under arm, at least according to wikipedia. DPRK have 8-10M.

As the threats keep escalating, the situation has definitely taken a turn for the worse, in a manner it hasn't in recent history. The border build up of forces however could be enough to deter such action, rather than be a sign of it coming.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

It seems someone tried to assassinate the NK leader last year:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-attempt.html

[Biscuit]

I wish they would pack it in, i have a flight in a couple of months that changes in South Korea, inconsiderate sods!

[TheAnimus]

It's the whole restarting on the Yongbyon complex reactor. The US demolished a cooling tower as part of an aid agreement.

It's a strange hodgepodge of technologies there, but apparently, by public domain info (hi wikipedia!) it is designed towards enrichment. However they have a current LWR program there, so it's unclear as to what is stopped and what is truely going to be started.

The funny thing is, they have rattled their sabre before, and nothing has come of it.

However the build-up of forces by... well by everyone but DPRK, is a sign that it is being taken seriously. I hope that it will be a deterrent.

However in the same way MAD of cold war nuclear strategy could easily fall apart by someone who frankly doesn't care that they loose, people like General Kim (thought to be behind the island shelling, the sub attack) might not care about the consequences.

Truth be told, I don't know why I worry about this, it won't impact me in any serious manner.... But it is nagging at me, that we might see a very messy (and mostly conventional) war.

[b0redom]

I suspect if it did all kick off, China would withdraw their support and DPRK would be left on their own.

The result would be a massacre probably on both sides as DPRK still seem to have lots of old, conventional weapons and a military they don't care about, and the US (and probably others) would come to the aid of ROK.

[Biscuit]

I was just reading the BBC article which sums up whats been going on. Why on earth will it take weeks to set up this new missile defense system, surely the point in system based on trucks means it should be almost instantaneous once its arrived at location?

[kalniel]

I was just reading the BBC article which sums up whats been going on. Why on earth will it take weeks to set up this new missile defense system, surely the point in system based on trucks means it should be almost instantaneous once its arrived at location?

I presume your last statement is why - shipping takes a while.

[Smudger]

I know exactly what we need for this situation: