How long before Trump get's de-throned?

[[GSV]Trig]

He'll do whatever he thinks will make more money, because he's one of those types that think money equals greatness, but given his money wasn't made by himself and having been bankrupt then he's not really an ideal businessman to run the entire country..

[TooNice]

The analysis that I've read (and to be fair, I haven't looked into sufficiently diverse news outlet to know if they are widely accepted consensus), is that China is getting hit harder than the US by the trade war so far relatively speaking. But GDP growth is still growing at over 6%, which is twice that of the US. So I am not sure if this unrest is spreading is really that likely to occur, a number may not be able to go on a shopping spree overseas as they've done in the past, but that isn't quite enough to lead to unrest. And it's also obvious that the situation in HK is more ideological than economical. For the people who've never had a taste of the kind of freedom people in HK are used to, they may not feel as strongly about demanding rights that they've never had.

And another thing is that I've got the feeling that patriotism/nationalism is stronger in China. Not that there aren't dissenters, but I think that the reason threats of boycott from mainland Chinese work so well (as in often result in foreign companies backtracking / apologising etc.), is because the threats are credible. They won't just rage on social media and offer the government vocal supports, even taking into account suppressed/censored dissenting voices, there are many strongly pro-government. And it doesn't matter whether those are conditioned response or not, but I think that outside the regions that have at some point been outside Chinese government control, or largely populated by minorities, it would really take a lot to destabilise the system. IF it start to happen to a region that far from where trouble are current taking place, then it might snowball into something else. But it would take a lot, especially if the government can defend using the narrative that their prosperity is under attack due to foreign actions.

"Curious" is probably not the right word when things can really go south if they start propping up an anti-foreigner sentiment.. but I can't predict how this is going to play out, and I think that the world could end up dragged into this.

[Galant]

As per Saracen, I think it will be the quality/nature of his opponent that decides whether or not he gets elected. If I were voting I would very much like to replace Trump. Shockingly, the current batch of Democrats are working hard at making themselves 'unelectable'. I thought Trump/Hillary was bad as far as choices go but I think this election will be worse. Why? Because Trump has managed to take a lot of good will and opportunity thrown his way and stomp right over it. If he could only control himself he'd easily win a lot of support. Instead he's making things worse and worse for himself.

Meanwhile, over in Democrat land, instead of taking the opportunity of Trumps extremism to take a centre-line and shoot down the middle, the candidates all seem to be set on out-competing one another to see he can push furthest to the left in a variety of ways. They're pressing more and more extreme stances on abortion, religious freedoms, gun-control, and just about any hot button issue. Not to mention taking up strong stances on socialist talking points as regards the economy, health-care etc. They simply don't seem to have realised that it's that sort of stance that got Trump elected in the first place, and will likely be the reason he gets elected again, if he does.

If just one of them - or perhaps even one other Republican - took a stance closer to centre, I think a lot of people would be ready to move on from Trump.

But alas no. They're too far removed from reality, lost in their own political world, playing to the social-media reactionary tendencies, that they're doubling-down instead of compromising.

[Saracen999]

I agree with much of that, Galant, but about the Democrats tacking ever further left .... I just wonder if that is througb choice, ir necessity?

I mean, in order to get noticed you need (not necessarily in this order) :-

- TV time, news clips, etc
- print inches
- social media noticability.

And, "centre line", as far as most of that is concerned, is ..... ho-hum, boring, yawn. So doesn't get the TV slots, etc.

You've almost got to out-nutcase not only your opponents but your colleagues/competitors.

So .... blame the politicicians or blame the 24/7 instant news nature of modern media, and the instant gratification nature of social media?

Probably both, IMHO but emphasis on the nature of media coverage.

[Galant]

I agree with much of that, Galant, but about the Democrats tacking ever further left .... I just wonder if that is througb choice, ir necessity?

I mean, in order to get noticed you need (not necessarily in this order) :-

- TV time, news clips, etc
- print inches
- social media noticability.

And, "centre line", as far as most of that is concerned, is ..... ho-hum, boring, yawn. So doesn't get the TV slots, etc.

You've almost got to out-nutcase not only your opponents but your colleagues/competitors.

So .... blame the politicicians or blame the 24/7 instant news nature of modern media, and the instant gratification nature of social media?

Probably both, IMHO but emphasis on the nature of media coverage.

I'm not sure. During the last election the vast majority of the major media was behind Hillary in a way I don't think I've ever seen before and she of course, lost. I think part of the issue is that the media themselves are no longer seen as just reporting on the elections but taking part/sides in them. That being the case, a more moderate (albeit passionately so) candidate would take some flack and would get coverage, even if negative.

[Xlucine]

Parties of all shades tend to track to extremes while choosing a candidate, as the candidate has to appeal to just party members to get chosen. It's normal to candidates to get more moderate once they have to talk to the entire population

[TeePee]

Trump is a centrist candidate. Again, his actual actions, rather than his twitter profile, have been broadly in line with Obama. He's passed more gun control, and started fewer wars. Every other Republican Primary candidate he defeated were further right. The likes of Ted Cruz and Rick Perry were theocrat extremists. Meanwhile, Obama, despite being labeled as the second coming of Jesus or the anti-christ, was another broadly centrist politician. It takes a centrist to get elected by either party. But this extremist noise has just become the pageantry of US politics.