Apple warns investors about disappointing iPhone sales

[Saracen999]

Meh, I think the reason that people aren't upgrading is that there's no reason. I upgraded my iPhone 6+ to an iPhone X as I wanted a bit more internal space. It's still perfectly serviceable although the battery could probably do with replacing. That phone is about 6 years old.

I could afford to upgrade every 12 months if I want, but really there's no point. Long gone are the days when every release is a massive jump in performance, so unless there suddenly is a massive leap in functionality then people are probably going to keep what they have until it breaks. In that environment the only way to increase the sales, is to move into other geographies and/or market segments.

Nail, hammer, head, IMHO.

Unless a new model either does something new, or something sufficiently better, then expecting users to replace a perfectly functional model with an almost identical new version essentially relies on them wanting to be seen with the latest model. That is, a status-symbol, ego -trip kind of thing.

I think the slump in sales signifies 2 or 3 things.

One - the 'marginal' nature of recent model improvements.

Two - To a point, a growing nationalism in the Chinese market, and the growing sophistication of high-end home-grown products.

Three - a bit more tenuous, but growing nerves about the world economy, the slow-down in Chinese growth and the China-US trade spat .... which also feeds into point two.

Then again, what do I know, or care, as a non-smartphoner.

[Spud1]

Not on them all. S10 is "likely" to have a hole punch not a notch

Just as ugly imo - still a silly decision from Samsung. Call it a notch, punch, hole or whatever.. it still runs the look of the phone and offers zero real world advantage to the consumer.

[spacein_vader]

Nail, hammer, head, IMHO.

Unless a new model either does something new, or something sufficiently better, then expecting users to replace a perfectly functional model with an almost identical new version essentially relies on them wanting to be seen with the latest model. That is, a status-symbol, ego -trip kind of thing.

I think the slump in sales signifies 2 or 3 things.

One - the 'marginal' nature of recent model improvements.

Two - To a point, a growing nationalism in the Chinese market, and the growing sophistication of high-end home-grown products.

Three - a bit more tenuous, but growing nerves about the world economy, the slow-down in Chinese growth and the China-US trade spat .... which also feeds into point two.

Then again, what do I know, or care, as a non-smartphoner.

I don't think being a smartphoner has any effect. All you said seems right to me and applies to any good that become a commodity, which is where smartphones are now for the developed world.

Much like fridges, ovens and irons unless somebody comes up with a brand new way of doing something that is better than everyone else (see Dyson with bagless vacume,) they'll only get replaced when they break.

[walibe]

This isn’t Chinese nationalism in the market, this is a Chinese economy that is quite probably in recession but of course it’s difficult to tell this side of the Great Wall. The whole U.S trade war isn’t helping either side and the stock markets are telling this picture all over. It’s not just Apple suffering either, pick any U.S company from Boeing to starbucks and all are worried about China from either trade tariffs, the slowing economy or both. There’s some interesting videos on YouTube showing the property market collapsed in many places in China. This is particularly worrying for locations like London whose many high rise apartments lie empty, sold to Chinese investors who will never see them and fund development after development. We arnt out of the era of recession yet, and China’s economy is large enough to depress the world economy as America’s did. Again there are some interesting articles on the web about China and Russia’s economies and where their real GDP etc are thought to be. They also explain the issue with so many companies in China being propped up by huge investment loans from their government. Fascinating stuff.

[Saracen999]

I don't think being a smartphoner has any effect. All you said seems right to me and applies to any good that become a commodity, which is where smartphones are now for the developed world.

Much like fridges, ovens and irons unless somebody comes up with a brand new way of doing something that is better than everyone else (see Dyson with bagless vacume,) they'll only get replaced when they break.

Agreed .... unless you can pull off the "icon" status. I'd say Apple got pretty close.

But maybe it's just the distinction between fashion icon, and "commodity".

I'd argue that, for instance, Rolex pulled it off. To me, that's a case study in world-class marketing. Perhaps Rayban too. And a good few others.. Nike, maybe. And, IMHO, quite a few "fashion" brands.

When does a half-decent quality t-shirt become something "worth" much more than that? When you stick a designer label on it and quadruple the price. Or more. Personally, I will pay for decent quality cloth, properly stitched seams, etc (and thanks to mum-in-law, I know what to look for) but I won't pay for a poncy name on it.

And that's where my "not a smaryphoner" comes in .... I haven't really studied any, certainly not high-end, phones well enough to know if they have "properly stitched seams", etc.


Until recently, I probably would have assumed that Apple, or at least iPhone, had reached that kind of iconic status that people wanted the latest simply because it was the latest, regardless of whether any rational analysis of benefits of new over previous model justified cost.

But now, it's looking like, at least for a good chunk of the customer base, it's slipping from icon to commodity. And if so, that must really worry Apple executives .... and shareholders.

Putting it another way .... where's the innovation that has been the magic behind Apple's rise?

[Saracen999]

This isn’t Chinese nationalism in the market, this is a Chinese economy that is quite probably in recession but of course it’s difficult to tell this side of the Great Wall. The whole U.S trade war isn’t helping either side and the stock markets are telling this picture all over. It’s not just Apple suffering either, pick any U.S company from Boeing to starbucks and all are worried about China from either trade tariffs, the slowing economy or both. There’s some interesting videos on YouTube showing the property market collapsed in many places in China. This is particularly worrying for locations like London whose many high rise apartments lie empty, sold to Chinese investors who will never see them and fund development after development. We arnt out of the era of recession yet, and China’s economy is large enough to depress the world economy as America’s did. Again there are some interesting articles on the web about China and Russia’s economies and where their real GDP etc are thought to be. They also explain the issue with so many companies in China being propped up by huge investment loans from their government. Fascinating stuff.

That too, but IMHO, it's nationalism too.

But to be clear, I don't mean the ugly, fascistic, flag-waving type, but the pride in one's nation's abilities. Like pride in Rolls Royce (of old) or French pride in Champagne and wine generally, or Italians in pizza, etc.

Part, but only part, of what's going on is Chinese consumers becoming aware that Chinese manufacturers now make some very, VERY good product, that they want to be seen to own, and are genuine competition for Apple.

And China's current successes on the moon won't hurt that national pride, either. There's a growing self-confidence in China's industry being far better than just a source of cheap clothing factories for the West, or high-tech plants for Western companies.