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About LinkBacksThey pay a 0.7% dividend, so... ~143 years. Most of the other big tech companies don't pay one at all.Originally Posted by lumireleon
They pay a 0.7% dividend, so... ~143 years. Most of the other big tech companies don't pay one at all.
Then you certainly can't say:
Because it's not true. They may *speculate* on the value of a company, and use that to judge how much they are willing to pay for shares. That doesn't inherently overvalue a company though. Or they may have another reason for getting shares.these wall-street guys overvalue a company based on speculation.
If a company is in a market, then the value is what the market are willing to pay for it. Simple really.SO HOW DO YOU VALUE A COMPANY???
At the current rate you'd just sell it again when you want your capital back and make a tidy profitif you were to buy apple today how many years will it take to get your capital back??
So true, just blanket statements like "our investigations found no evidence (they asked Linda next door).I'd be more concerned how they treat their workers, but since they've outsourced pretty much everything they claim whatever conditions are like at Foxconn etc. has nothing to do with Apple.
They know very fine well which laws are broken and have procedures and policies in place to plead ignorance and burn bridges when the time is required.
so when the dollar collaps then what?
That entirely depends on when you purchased Apple stocks, if you bought them at $0.60 in Jan 1997, you're earning more in dividend payment than your initial purchase price, dependant on stock splits etc.
Also $2 Trillion in perspective is more than the GDP of Canada for one year. That's pretty astounding.
The whole system is speculative,which is how the 1929 stock crash,2000 tech bubble and 2008~2009 Great Recession happened. The system does not value longterm stability,but shorter term gains,and always has boom and bust cycles.
So hence why you keep seeing people make future estimates of what the financial performance should be,and then value the stocks based on it. So whether a company is profitable or not,is not as important as the predicted percentage return quarter to quarter. So financial analysts are determining on whether you have a job or not,whether you might get that raise,etc or if production is pushed abroad,etc. It's also why you keep price escalation everywhere in tech,and how Chinese firms(who don't play exactly the same game),have no problems using lower margin models. So at some point we will probably have another tech bubble crash. In the end the market will hit its cap(especially as its been artificially being raised by more and more debt),and these companies can't show growth anymore and the whole system crashes. It doesn't matter if they made a trillion dollars that year,as no increase is doom.
Last edited by CAT-THE-FIFTH; 20-08-2020 at 07:03 PM.
Then Apple will be worth $20 trillion
Partially, but remember the value of a stock is purely what someone else will buy it for. So yes, if the only people buying stocks are people who are buying them for Apple's financial performance then there's a direct link. But most stock purchasing is done by people who are buying them in order to sell them to someone else later at a profit, and that means a whole bunch of factors come into play from trendiness, sentimentality, fear, and for a large portion, algorithm outcome. So a stock trader is not directly interested in the financial performance, just whatever is of interest to the other people/the algorithm they might want to sell to.
But that is an even greater contributor to:
Because stock valuation isn't directly linked to underlying financials, but instead, FOMO or whatever, the likelihood of reality catching up increases. By then most of the brokers who knew what game they were playing will have cashed in and the pain will likely be borne by the non-professional investor who thought they were getting great returns for an easy investment.So at some point we will probably have another tech bubble crash. In the end the market will hit its cap(especially as its been artificially being raised by more and more debt),and these companies can't show growth anymore and the whole system crashes. It doesn't matter if they made a trillion dollars that year,as no increase is doom.
This partly explains the stock market performance during this pandemic - while it's true some underlying tech firms are going to do well out of the increase in remote working, there's also been a massive increase in people out of work/doing less work and/or who are trying to top up their incomes with investing - hence you see investing platforms aimed at the casual investor suddenly doing very well. The messages a certain POTUS puts out about the market don't help either. China incidentally has the same issue, if not more so, of home investors trying to make easy returns.
Think you might have missed some in there like the South Sea Bubble (1720), Tulip Mania Bubble (1637) so on.
The wikipedia has a handy list
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...d_bear_markets
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econom..._asset_bubbles
Or pre-dating stock markets, there's the
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_crises
But don't worry, this time there is no bubble as this time, the times are different™.
Honestly, because of... Well who knows!
Its an interesting one. I've put 30% of my pension fund in tech (And another 30% in Asia) after Brexit to shield me from market affects. It turns out this has shielded me damn well from Covid too. I'm actually decently up month on month, unlike all my colleagues (even with actively managed funds). So big question is how long can this bubble last? When do I cash out? British shares are well down right now. Is now the time to pick up UK shares on the cheap and get out of the bubble? I just don't believe that many people are buying high end iphones for this cap to last...
All good questions, but I'd recommend hopping over to somewhere like moneysavingexpert forums where they make sure people always include suitable disclaimers and declarations when they give financial opinions
$2 Trillion, wow, when you consider that the UK's debt is £2 trillion, puts that figure into perspective eh...
I know - and then its damn clear they are guessing as much as me. It why I decided not to bother with our company's pension advisor's active fund management. So far, I'm well up on my colleagues who did but I'd blame that as much to luck as anything. I think people on here are right that, that is a bubble. Don't get me wrong tech is good money maker and a better bet than tulips, but no way is it worth the valuation.All good questions, but I'd recommend hopping over to somewhere like moneysavingexpert forums where they make sure people always include suitable disclaimers and declarations when they give financial opinions
Apple is indeed an extremely wealthy company but they have a big problem in that they haven't really innovated and produced the next iPhone product to maintain growth. There is only so much you can do and imho Apple is very over valued. IBM went through this in the 80's they became so wealthy they literally setup their own banking services to help finance businesses buying their products... It worked well until cloud computing crept up on them and they've been in decline for many years now. Apple will go the same way imho unless they are very careful... when their stock dips people get nervous real quick.
That'd be the day. I used to work for them in retail and they take the same approach to their employees: sing a pretty tune about being a different kind of company, dodge responsibility with mercenary efficiency wherever possible.
https://imgur.com/nO0IqOY
This is the percentage growth of my pension funds over the last 3 years or so when I started tracking this stuff. I'll let you guess which is tech. Its not just Apple that is in the tech bubble...
(The negative one is a UK fund but thankfully its small!)
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