Where will the batteries come from? and where will they go?

[Zak33]

If the electric revolution takes full hold, and the Tesla's of the world ramp up production....

what's gonna power them?

I know Lithium reserves are in serious doubt... and the sodium ion girls and boys are working hard https://hexus.net/tech/news/industry...attery-issues/

but seriously.. where's it' all gona come from?

What I need please, are links to respected and seriously justifiable sources on IF and IF NOT we can make enough batteries?

Ignore mobile phone growth, house battery growth.. just focus on cars.

I found this a while ago....https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...y-m#gs.BTjBT3k which was pretty certain that we'd run out very fast.

[peterb]

This article (2010) gives some insight - however it was part of undergraduate coursework.

http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/eason2/

This makes interesting background reading

https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3035/pdf/fs2014-3035.pdf

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Here is a article which cites a Nature paper which states,that by 2050,issues with cobalt supplies alone will be a big issue,since by then demand will be twice what we have in current global supplies,even with reductions in usage per battery:

http://www.mining.com/electric-cars-...hium-supplies/

Cobalt is required for current car batteries,and most of it is mined from places like the DRC. Even before that point is reached,cobalt prices will be a limiting factor:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp.../#4840368a1be5

[Zak33]

Lithium and Cobolt.

I guess with the engines not being aluminium & steel there is a lot of saving there but the finite supply of those is less pressing.

[peterb]

Iron and aluminium are two or the more common elements (along with silicon and carbon)

[Moby-Dick]

As I understand it , lithium supplies are not going to be a rate determining factor in EV uptake - Its somethign I've seen mentioned by a lot of EV advocates but searching for a balanced opinion gives this..

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/li...ctric-vehicles
https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/...ity_of_lithium

from the last link:

About 70 percent of the world’s lithium comes from brine (salt lakes); the remainder is derived from hard rock. Research institutions are developing technology to draw lithium from seawater.

[Moby-Dick]

Looks like Tesla are looking to reduce cobalt dependancy for a start:
https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/21/1...attery-science
https://www.ft.com/content/3b72645a-...f-a6a2f7bca546

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

As I understand it , lithium supplies are not going to be a rate determining factor in EV uptake - Its somethign I've seen mentioned by a lot of EV advocates but searching for a balanced opinion gives this..

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/li...ctric-vehicles
https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/...ity_of_lithium

from the last link:

The main issue is lack of recycling which is the problem as most is done in China and companies say it is uneconomic,so its easier to throw away many of them(the irony).

[peterb]

The main issue is lack of recycling which is the problem as most is done in China and companies say it is uneconomic,so its easier to throw away many of them(the irony).

That is certainly a problem with small batteries (torch, mobile phone and similar, although recycling points that collect normal small batteries will usually accept lithium cells.

However traction batteries will be a different matter - and as EVs gain popularity, y=the economies of scale will make recycling an even more attractive proposition with collection through dealerships.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

That is certainly a problem with small batteries (torch, mobile phone and similar, although recycling points that collect normal small batteries will usually accept lithium cells.

However traction batteries will be a different matter - and as EVs gain popularity, y=the economies of scale will make recycling an even more attractive proposition with collection through dealerships.

Only 5% of batteries in the EU are recycled. Best metrics for car battery re-use are at 60% it appears,meaning 40% will be chucked away and those smaller batteries will then be most likely chucked away:

https://recyclinginternational.com/n...elatively-low/
https://waste-management-world.com/a...nergy-clean-up

Only 9% of world lithium supply by 2025 will be recycled,so 91% of it needs to be extracted.

Even then the metrics companies are touting for recycling the larger batteries for re-use is not really high enough. Its eye opening when people from Argonne National Laboratory who working to make more ecological friendly batteries are saying that companies are more or less putting costs first:

https://www.theguardian.com/sustaina...hium-recycling

Linda Gaines, transportation system analyst and electric vehicle battery expert at the Argonne National Laboratory in the US says: “The bottom line is there’s time to build plants”. “But”, she adds, “we don’t know what kinds of batteries they’ll be yet. It would help if the batteries were standardised and designed for recycling, but they’re not.”

Most of it is done to cost,ie,car companies are pushing EVs as the environmentally friendly option but CBA about cleaning up their own mess - this is an industry which has lied about many things,just to get sales. They need to be forced to recycle all the car batteries - no "ifs" and no "buts". They create the waste,they clean it up.

Also don't export it to China so some other country can get screwed over. Do it as locally as possible.

[peterb]

The Waste Electronic and Electrical Equipment directive goes some way towards addressing this, but I agree it needs to be strengthened - but I suspect the shortage of Lithium will make recycling economically viable.

As for consumer batteries, they need to operate on some sort of deposit system, but the costs of operating it might outweigh the effectiveness.

[directhex]

Dumb question.

Why no similar "where's it gonna come from" post for fossil fuel supplies?

[TeePee]

Mostly either from brine pools or open cast mines, either of which are as much of a blight on the environment as the worst of the Canadian Tar Sands mining (which, unlike Lithium mining, are eventually reclaimed). Of course, most fossil fuel extraction has negligible environmental impact, it's the burning part that's bad.

Realistically, just as we ridiculed 'Peak Oil' on this very forum, 'Peak Lithium' simply isn't ever going to happen.

Sure, electric cars aren't good for the environment, but probably worse than a normal car only because they have less of a useful life. The majority of the environmental damage is caused by a vehicles construction and disposal, so keeping a car running and using it for as long as possible before replacement (and recycling!) are the greenest choices.

[Zak33]

Dumb question.

Why no similar "where's it gonna come from" post for fossil fuel supplies?

thanks for that Hex.. we will not agree on this.. we both know that

so lets lurch from one limited transport to another, yeah? lets ignore the fact it won't work for ever and carry on anyway, right?

[Zak33]

Sure, electric cars aren't good for the environment, but probably worse than a normal car only because they have less of a useful life. The majority of the environmental damage is caused by a vehicles construction and disposal, so keeping a car running and using it for as long as possible before replacement (and recycling!) are the greenest choices.

now THIS is sensible.

[kalniel]

I always thought battery cars were a stop gap solution until hydrogen anyway?