Huge Tory victory in Crewe : Brown to resign

[Saracen]

Oh, all right, the first part looks likely but the second part doesn't, and as the results aren't in yet, it's a guess anyway. It got you in here, though.

But seriously, while the results aren't in, it does seem to be pretty much unanimously accepted that the Tories have taken Crewe and Nantwich, and the suspense is about just how big a victory it is. And so far, all the indications are that it is NOT a small margin. Words like "whopping", "unprecedented" and "gi-normous" come to mind.

But can Gordon Brown survive? My own opinion is 'yes', largely because Labour doesn't seem to have anyone it can put in his place, and because there doesn't seem to be the required 70 Labour MPs prepared to sign up to call for him to go, and because a second person parachuted in to the leadership without a vote might be something an opposition party can get away with, but a government can't, and a leadership campaign so soon would be a laughing stock after the smug and patronising teasing of Labour MPs when the others did it.

So I still think it very likely that Brown will lead Labour into the next election, whenever that happens to be.

Of course, while it's hard to see Brown getting booted out, it is possible he might jump "for the good of the party". .......... Nah, not Brown.


And all the above analysis, if accurate, is likely to put a huge smile on Cameron's face, because though it's probably best part of two years off, Brown is now so much damaged, compared to what Cameron must have expected him to be when he fought an election, that unless things change radically (which is possible) Brown is probably the Tories secret weapon for cleaning Labour's clock that that election.

So ..... the point of the post - who'll win the next General Election, whenever it may come? How close can Hexus get to calling it?

[GAteKeeper]

Not saying that blue would be better but the whole 'It doesnt matter what the plebs think I can do what I like' attitude has to have its face slapped repeatedly.

GK

[shadowmaster]

I'm not too fond of the Conservatives (then again I'm not fond of any of the political parties) but I think they will win. Brown has damaged labour too much + the current economic climate has not helped him. There may be hope if he resigns and labour bring in someone young and charismatic but as you said that’s highly unlikely

And Saracen why are 'lib dems' in the poll? They don’t count!!! They are only there to make the general election map a bit more colorful, red, blue, yellow, is much better then just red and blue

[Agent]

That was an evil, evil title.

[Clunk]

Matty Hodgson, eat your heart out

[Noxvayl]

Its all against brown and them labour fools... the torrie idiots seem to have the upper hand so they'll more than likely win.

I really dislike Government, Parliament, the inadequate law and all MP's who work around it for there benefit which is basically all of them!

Honestly I laugh at most of there interviews because it seems they are briefed to specifically not answer the questions asked and ramble on about other crap while they are on TV to get some sort of awareness out about how they are trying to do good... they are pitiful people without a shred of integrity and it sickens me that they are the ones running the country.

/rant over

That does feel better now. Enjoy arguing about them scum

[Saracen]

Well it is now official - the Tories took the seat ...... for the first time since it was created, and overturning a Labour majority of 7078, to a Tory majority of 7860.

Results :-

Tory : 20,539
Labour : 12,679
LibDem : 6040
UKIP : 922
Green : 359


and so on.

[Rave]

Holy crap! That's an absolute spanking with cherries on top!

[Saracen]

It is indeed a very thorough spanking. And that throws up some interesting perspectives.

It's the first Tory by-election win over Labour in 30 years.

The swing to the Tories was 17.6%, which is huge. If (and of course it's a very big 'if' indeed) that swing were applied to the whole country in a General Election (which it certainly wouldn't be), the results in the Commons would be :-

Tories : 497 seats
Labour : 100 seats
LibDem : 25 seats
Other : 28 seats

In other words, a landslide Tory victory and a humongous majority.


It is, of course, perfectly true that the old adage of "one swallow does not a summer make" holds true, and it would be folly to predict a General Election result on the back of this. It's also true that a week, let alone a couple of years, is a long time in politics.

But this is not an isolated incident, now. We've had Labour given a real spanking in the local elections, and we've had Labour given a real spanking in the London Mayor's election.

Then we had a Gordon Brown relaunch, and the 10p package tax bribe. And despite that relaunch, and despite the tax give-away only a week ago, Labour have managed to turn a 13% swing against themselves at the local elections in that area to a 17.6% swing in the by-election, to provide an even bigger clobbering than last time. Way to go, Gordon.

I think that this perhaps heralds a quite significant moment in British politics. No seriously, I do. We've had growing apathy in politics, and I think a major part of the reason is that for 30 years, there's been no real competition, and the electorate felt (quite rightly) ignored. We had years of the Tories in an unassailable position, then we had their growing arrogance in power and Labour ushered in a "saviours", and they Lorded it for a decade. The number of times I've seen smug Labour MPs and ministers gloating over the fact that the Tories were in total disarray makes me want to puke at their smugness and arrogance. They have become as complacent as the Tories grew to be after years in power.

If nothing else, the last few weeks puts the Tories firmly back on the map as a very, very real and credible threat to Labour at the next election. I'm not willing to make any firm predictions about whether they can or will win the next election. I think Cameron now has some things to prove, not least that he has a full and credible range of policies. He is going to come under increasing study in the next few months, both personally as a potential PM, and party-wise.


I will also, in the vain hope that he might heed it, give Gordon Brown and the Labour glitterati a piece of advice. Gordon, when you get handed this type of message from the electorate, your response last time will not cut it. Last time, you said, more or less ...

"we're going to listen, and we need to explain our message to the people more".

No, you plonker. Listening doesn't mean that you try even harder to convince us that you're right. Close your yap, and open your ears and listen to us. Don't try to convince us you're right. Instead, try to get it through your noggin that we heard you last time. This time, you hear us. And what you should be hearing is that we don't like what you're doing and/or how you're doing it.

And personally, if there's one thing I'd like to see from ALL politicians it's more honesty and openness. When you make a mistake, and being human, you do, you need to own up to it. Like the 10p tax thing. Having screwed up, admit it then fix it. And "fix it" does not mean coming up with a tax bribe and trying to pretend that you're not actually trying to fix what you screwed up but are doing it because "it's right" and that it's simply a response to changing world economic factors, especially when the fix still doesn't fix the fundamental problem, which was that some of the lowest paid got clobbered by your tax redistribution to the better off. Even a lot of people that benefited from that, while taking the money, were nauseated at your naivety of thinking we wouldn't see though that. It's an insult to think we're stupid enough to buy it. And most people don't appreciate being insulted.

So we, or at least I, am fed up with politicians (and I mean just about ALL politicians) treating us in that patronising and contemptuous way, never answering a straight question, always dodging the issue, indulging in verbal gymnastics every time an uncomfortable fact or issue crops us. For pities sake, start treating us with some respect for a change. We see right through your spin, evasions and slick lies, and we don't like it. If you start treating us with some respect, and not as gullible morons, you might actually find people accept that you can goof, and start respecting you back. You don't have to pretend you're incapable of error. Just grow a little humility, honesty and some respect for the people you work for.

Because if you don't ..... you'd better start packing, because the décor in Number 10 just might be going blue.

[Lee H]

Gordon Brown needs to accept defeat and get out of number 10 pronto!

Labour need to accept this, rise against him, overthrow and kick him out to limit the damage he is doing before the next general election.

[kalniel]

We're all* doomed!


*Ok, maybe not all, but I think in my personal circumstances I'm going to be right royally shafted if the tories get into power.

Labour are blowing themselves to peices, but I'm terrified of the alternative.

[Mossy]

I dont Care no matter who is in it will always be rip of Britain in my lifetime. Its unfortunate but it looks like the CONS will be back in anyone but them please!

[kalniel]

As an aside, nice to see that The Flying Brick, candidate for the Monster Raving Loony party managed 236 votes (0.57&#37

[pollaxe]

Ultimately, they're all as bad as each other. Same sh.. different shovel and all that kind of thing.

Labour do deserve a damned good kicking though and fortunately, it looks like they're getting it. If I vote at the next election then I will be voting Tory and I never, ever thought I'd do that. I remember them too and with things like BT we're still reaping the privatisation whirlwind IMHO.

It's really a rock and a hard place as the Tories privatise and I don't trust them with the NHS at all and Labour nanny us and really bring in the surveillance society. I really do despair at all of them, they promise the world before getting into power and then signally fail to deliver. A mate of mine went to a meeting about a by-pass that was being proposed for where he lived. Tony Blair went to the meetings held by both the pro and anti camps and essentially promised them each what they wanted to hear (naturally each promise was diametrically opposed to what the opposition camps wanted.)

Rotten sods the lot of 'em. Still, at least we're not in Zimbabwe, I suppose..

[Skii]

What a spanking !!

Given that I was born in Crewe and spent most of my younger years around Crewe and Nantwich, I feel a particular warm sense of satisfaction about this

[Saracen]

We're all* doomed!


*Ok, maybe not all, but I think in my personal circumstances I'm going to be right royally shafted if the tories get into power.

Labour are blowing themselves to peices, but I'm terrified of the alternative.

Perhaps the upside to that is to consider why the Tories would be such a bad thing. I've no idea, obviously, why you think that, but generally, it probably involves the name "Thatcher" .... and the era that name is associated with.

If so, I'd suggest a perspective for you. First, the situation Thatcher faced was very different to the situation Blair/Brown faced, so you can do different things.

Secondly, New Labour is very different to old Labour. They clearly abandoned many principles, and quite openly, like unilateral nuclear disarmament. It was, after all, old Labour principles and practices that made them unelectable during the Thatcher years, because neither the people nor the principles were trusted to run the country. Yet, with a rebranded New Labour, a few principles dumped and a glib, smiling face at the helm, they managed a comeback, largely because the old faces had gone as had many principles/policies. Or apparently so, anyway.

Thirdly, there's room for a significant parallel between traditional v New Labour, and Thatcher Tories v today's tories. Most or all of the old Tories are either gone or, like Ken Clarke, back benchers with no real input into party policy. The current Tory leadership weren't in power back in Thatcher's day, and while they may well have been assistants, advisers, etc, back then, that doesn't mean they had much or any real input into policy or decision-making.

In other words, if Labour can "change", and reinvent themselves, so can the Tories.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Tory fanboy. In fact, I can't think of many, if any, politician of any party that I'd trust any further than I could throw the Palace of Westminster. But based on what I'm seeing at the moment, I'll probably vote Tory next time on the basis that I'll give 'em a try, 'cos they can hardly be worse than the current bunch of ..... erm ..... representatives. So for me it comes down to an unpalatable choice of either abnegating my democratic responsibility and either not voting or spoiling the ballot, which is not an attractive option, or voting for the least worst option which seems to be Tory.