All the polls currently show us heading for a hung parliament. They also suggest some intriguing possibilities, like Brown staying in Number 10 despite losing the election, at least in terms of the percentages of national vote.
Of course, all this is with the caveat that the polls could be wrong .... and have been before, so this is all somewhat speculation ... if distinctly plausible speculation.
All three main parties, according to their manifestos, want electoral reform. This time, however, we might just get it. But get what?
My take :
- Tories - we want reform, changed boundaries in constituencies, keep First-Past-The-Post, a largely elected House of Lords. By a strange coincidence, this works in our favour.
- Labour - we want reform. We want the AV system, an elected House of Lords (despite us having been able to do it for 13 years and not bothered), etc. By a strange coincidence, this works in our favour.
- We want full PR, the Single Tranferable Vote (STV) system. By a strange coincidence, this works in our favour.
This all leads me to question whether any of them really want genuine reform, or whether they just want to increase their vested interest.
Given the vast level of cynicism and disinterest in politics, I'm forced to conclude that a lot of people are disinterested in politics because they don't feel their vote makes much if any difference, and that whatever he parties say, and whoever is elected, after the election, it'll be back to business as usual and we get ignored for another 5 years, because whichever party gets elected, they will then claim to have a "mandate" to do whatever the hell they feel like.
And I include Nick ("I'm not the old parties") Clegg in that. My impression is that he is exactly the old politics. He just wants his go in the big chair. Seductive as that "I'm not them" claim is, I just don't buy it. He is, like the others, just a career politician. Nothing much will change if he gets elected (which, while much more likely than it was a couple of weeks ago, still looks very unlikely), and it;ll be back to business as usual, with a different colour tie worn by the PM.
We're suppose to be a democracy, though I've long argued that that is little more than a tired joke. The only electoral reform that will impress me is more real influence over major decisions taking the will of the people into account. Cameron and his "big society" goes some way towards that, but I'm not just talking about local people running their school or having a few places on a hospital board - I'm talking about us actually being listened to in a real and meaningful way on major policy decisions. And I don't see any sign of that from any party. which is why I think the "change" they ALL offer is merely the emperor's latest new clothes, albeit from a different and slightly more progressive tailor with a fashionable style to the cut. They're still made from exactly the same cloth.
My problem is that the party system is the problem. Each of the three main parties have policies I agree with.
Hell, I even agree with some of the BNP policies, like an English Parliament.
If the people of Wales, Scotland or NI want independence, then they should have it. So for pities sake, put it to the people in a referendum, and get it over with. Either we're a union, or we aren't, and I don't much care either way. Clearly, Plaid and the SNP think their countries will be better off on their own. I doubt it, but if that's what their people's think and want, give it to them. Meantime, I want an English Parliament deciding English matters, and the Scots, Welsh and N.Irish deserve exactly the same level of autonomy, rather than Plaid saying they want the degree of autonomy the Scots have (though from one Plaid MP, they want it "medium/long term, not yet" when asked if he thinks public spending in Wales would go up if they got it.
What I want is for the people to have more of a say. If that means the union breaks up, okay. I'd prefer it not to, but if that's what the other "nations" want, who am I (or are we) to say no. That's colonialism by another name. But for heavens sake, put up or shut up, and get it sorted out.
As I said, I find some policies from each party have merit. But I also find some from each that I don't like. And some are red-line issues. I will not vote LibDem because of their stance on Europe. For instance, I utterly reject the notion that the only referendum the people want is in or out. That misses the point, because it's not just in or out, but precisely what you're in, if you're in. I agree with UKIP and the Tories on maintaining trade with Europe, so I reject the UKIP policy of pulling out. THat doesn't mean not pulling back, or about arguing what our stance should be on the future direction of the EU. As members, we are fully entitled to have a view on that, and if it doesn't match the federalist agenda of the major players, like France and Germany, well, they're entitled to their view and we can have ours, and argue for it.
If it came to a binary choice between into a European superstate or out altogether, I'd vote out altogether, But I don't believe that's the choice, and it categorically isn't the only available choice.
So that's the LibDems out, but only because I have to vote for their whole agenda or none of it.
And that is my core problem. There isn't a party with whom I completely agree, that doesn't have some major policy issues that give me a problem. And that's why I would favour major electoral reform if it gave the people a genuine input into individual major policies. If our feedback got taken into account in a real and meaningful way. That would be real electoral reform, and I can't see why in today's technological and communications-oriented broadband world, it can't happen.
The reason it won't happen is that all the major political parties are the same - they look after party vested interest first and foremost, and pay little more than lip service to public opinion, with their self-interested claims for "electoral reform" being nothing more than the latest electoral con trick. They don't believe in real reform for democracy's sake, just in gaining an edge.
How do we get real reform? Dunno. But one way might be to ban political parties altogether, and ban all current MPs from standing too. Make people stand on what they believe, issue by issue, and try to get real people in politics instead of career politicians. To my mind, anyone that is prepared to go through what they have to go through to get selected and elected under the current system isn't the type of person we should give real power to.
I hope for real electoral reform ... and I expect to get it about 24 hours after I get elected as Supreme Galactic Overlord and Univeral High Poobah by a coalition of the Loch Ness monster, visitors from another galaxy, Peter Pan and the Tooth Fairy. I'm not holding my breath.
Meantime, the "vote for change" agenda, be it the Tory or LibDem flavour? Pah. It's electioneering hogwash, and that's all it is. Whoever wins, what we get will be more of the same.