Which election is more important to you?

[Andy3536]

My fear for this referendum is that it will be won by the emotive "retain our sovereignty" vote without consideration for the economic burden we will place our country under if we leave.

My fear, is that the vote will be won by people worried about a few extra percentage points on the GDP. Rather that retaining democratic process. Once this opportunity goes to finally have our say, i don't believe we will get another chance. So this vote is for self determination, or doing what the EU wants. And there's no going back from that decision.
The argument for staying in is effectively, you'll be better off but we'll make your decisions for you .....

[jimborae]

Which is "more important" and "to you".

That sort-of depends how you look at it.

.........
So, if it's a choice of UK out but Pres Trump, or UK in EU and someone that isn't an absolute <rudeword> in the Whitehouse ..... ummmm. Would not getting out of the EU be worth it? Not that there's a causal link between the two, but if I could wave a magic wand and get one, but only one, which would I pick?

Which is "more important to me"?

Why not ask an easy question, like, oh .... what the exact nature of dark matter is, and a simple yet complete explanation for quantum mechanics.

Wot he said.

[scaryjim]

Perhaps the two most impartial articles on the Leave/Remain economic outlook:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...onomics-report

Neil Woodford made his millions inside the EU, so I would have thought he would be in favour of staying without a doubt. According to Woodford, it's a zero-sum game.

It's nice to see a report that isn't full or froth, but here's my first thought (I'll try to find time to read it properly later) - nothing in that guardian article suggests the consultants have any confidence in their predictions beyond the base "we might be a bit worse off, or a bit better off, in the long term". Financial services are likely to suffer; immigrations changes might be negative for some sectors but positive for others; we could see a period of weak foreign investment; britian could save money on it's contributions to the EU but that might be offset by the economic disruption. There's really no positive outcome there, and there's acceptance that there will be short-term disruption, even if the longer term picture is roughly flat. In terms of a CBA, I'm not seeing it, unless you count watching the Tories implode as a benefit...

As to the renewed army claims - that was from September. Got anything that says whether Cameron did drop his objections as part of the renegotiation? That's the kind of thing that would cause extensive frothing, so I'd've expected to hear about it in the 6 months since Merkel said that....

Egh, quick reply to crosspost:

My fear, is that the vote will be won by people worried about a few extra percentage points on the GDP. Rather that retaining democratic process. Once this opportunity goes to finally have our say, i don't believe we will get another chance. So this vote is for self determination, or doing what the EU wants. And there's no going back from that decision.
The argument for staying in is effectively, you'll be better off but we'll make your decisions for you .....

Either some numpty in Westminster makes my decisions for me, or some numpty in Brussels makes my decisions for me. I get about as much say in either process. Not really seeing the difference...

[Andy3536]

Either some numpty in Westminster makes my decisions for me, or some numpty in Brussels makes my decisions for me. I get about as much say in either process. Not really seeing the difference...

The numpty in Westminster, was voted in by thier constituents. The only numptys in Brussels with the power to change things are the EU commission, who are completely unaccountable to the people of Europe.
Did you vote for them? Did you vote for the president of the EU commision?

It's quite funny actually hearing an interview for the BBC from the former Greek PM Yanis Varoufakis. (yes i had to look up the spelling ) He seems to think we should stay in Europe, but still called it

a "monster", which is deeply contemptuous of the democratic process

Hmm, This is someone who's arguing for us to stay in.....

[TeePee]

The numpty in Westminster, was voted in by thier constituents. The only numptys in Brussels with the power to change things are the EU commission, who are completely unaccountable to the people of Europe.
Did you vote for them? Did you vote for the president of the EU commision?

It's quite funny actually hearing an interview for the BBC from the former Greek PM Yanis Varoufakis. (yes i had to look up the spelling ) He seems to think we should stay in Europe, but still called it
Hmm, This is someone who's arguing for us to stay in.....

We mock the US Election process for being broken, but the UK has the least representative government in recent history.

[Andy3536]

We mock the US Election process for being broken, but the UK has the least representative government in recent history.

This wasn't a discussion about the UK election process, but are you making it so, so are you saying being in the EU would be better?
Every MP that was elected to Westminster was elected by getting more votes than any other candidate in their region. That's democratic no matter what way you look at it. It's not perfect, and i'd never pretend it is. But that's far better than the system we have in the EU.
Lets turn it around a bit though, lets say that all the countries in North and South America all wanted to get together and slowly work towards what you might see in the European Union. You don't get a vote on who makes the decisions, or what direction it runs in, and it's laws would override anything from the US government and courts. You must also have a free movement of people right across the political union, so naturally uncontrolled migration is all going towards the strongest economy in the region (i.e. the US ) You've got the opportunity of a referendum on the idea, would you vote in or out?

[Phage]

Thanks Scaryjim. You have more patience than I do. We might.not like the EU but the alternative us far worse.

[The Hand]

As to the renewed army claims - that was from September. Got anything that says whether Cameron did drop his objections as part of the renegotiation? That's the kind of thing that would cause extensive frothing, so I'd've expected to hear about it in the 6 months since Merkel said that....

After the referendum, it'll surface again no doubt regardless of the outcome. It's probably too contentious to openly talk about it with the UK referendum coming. These kind of deals/proposals have a habit of laying low until the coast is clear in my opinion. The migrant crisis, terror attacks and Greece falling back into recession are controlling the agenda at the moment also.

If the UK leaves it doesn't matter anyway and if it stays, the UK are a spent force for change in the EU as they have just blown their last trump card by threatening to leave.

[Andy3536]

After the referendum, it'll surface again no doubt regardless of the outcome. It's probably too contentious to openly talk about it with the UK referendum coming. These kind of deals/proposals have a habit of laying low until the coast is clear in my opinion. The migrant crisis, terror attacks and Greece falling back into recession are controlling the agenda at the moment also.

If the UK leaves it doesn't matter anyway and if it stays, the UK are a spent force for change in the EU as they have just blown their last trump card by threatening to leave.

To true. To quote the president of the European commission.

"We decide on something, leave it lying around, and wait and see what happens. If no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don't understand what has been decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning back

[SeriousSam]

Either some numpty in Westminster makes my decisions for me, or some numpty in Brussels makes my decisions for me. I get about as much say in either process. Not really seeing the difference...

We can "oust" our numpties... to do the same to their numpties requires invading another country.

[scaryjim]

We can "oust" our numpties...

Tell that to the Scots Actually, interesting aside - I wonder how many people arguing for Brexit argued against Scottish independence. And if those who did see the irony in their positions.

To claim we can oust our numpties is missing the fact that British politics has collapsed to the point where anyone who is more than a few degrees from centrist is considered unelectable. If that's true, the only option is another set of very similar numpties wearing different coloured rosettes. It's a lovely illusion of democracy, but in practical terms it makes absolutely no difference to me who is in Westminster, and whether they're making laws of their own volition or based on EU directives (that mostly align with how UK laws would be made; at least the ones I have experience of).

And that's the thing - the big selling point for getting out would make no real difference for me, and no-one can tell me what the ACTUAL costs and benefits are going to be. There's a best guess of "things will probably be about the same, eventually, when it all settles out, if the government do a good job of negotiating our trade agreements". But it's a GUESS (and relies on our govenrment being competent...). So I'm being asked to vote for years of uncertainty, with no real payoff at the end. Or I can keep things as they are, accepting that a certain amount of the decisions about my life will be made by a set of bureaucrats in Brussels rather than a set of public school boys in Westminster, neither of whom understand my life or give a rat's rear end about me. And alongside that I continue to get the benefits of unrestricted travel and work in the EU, my employer gets continued access to a major funding source, the government can actually PLAN the economy because they KNOW what the economic outlook is going to be rather than having to guess ...

Yeah, complete no-brainer.

[peterb]

But staying in isn't voting "to keep things as they are". The "European Projrct" is rolling forward with the relentlessness of a lion stalking its prey.

The UK voted to join an economic community within a free trade area. Successive changes such as the Masstricht Treaty and the Lisbon Treaty have completely changed the nature of that original agreement, and the Government of the day declined to give us an opportunity to vote on either of those measures.

Staying in involves a degree of uncertainty. Personally I think the internal tensions and cultural difference will see the break up of the EU anyway, it's just a matter of time, but I'd rather we were masters of our own destiny than tied to the coat tails of a system that does just treats the UK as just one of many.

So yes, the vote is a complete no-brainier.

[scaryjim]

But staying in isn't voting "to keep things as they are". The "European Projrct" is rolling forward with the relentlessness of a lion stalking its prey.

... Staying in involves a degree of uncertainty.

Listening to most of the Out supporters speak, it's not uncertain at all. They seem to know exactly what's going to happen with the EU, and that's exactly why they want out.

My point is that even if there is uncertainty it's relatively predictable. We can model the trajectory, we know what we're letting ourselves in for. We have data to base those predicitions on. Getting out isn't predictable at all. We have no data to model that outcome. No-one's come up with a convincing set of trajectories that have any reasonable confidence intervals on them. We've had lots of guess work based on numerous assumptions. Perhaps it's having worked in close proximity to so many academics for so long, or perhaps it's living with someone with professional expertise in simulation and modelling, or perhaps it's just because I like data, but I find the concept of making a decision backed by that little data horrifying.

... Personally I think the internal tensions and cultural difference will see the break up of the EU anyway, it's just a matter of time, but I'd rather we were masters of our own destiny than tied to the coat tails of a system that does just treats the UK as just one of many. ....

Two thoughts on that.

1) if the EU's going to fragment then it's going to get harder and harder for it to impose its will on member nations anyway, so why not stay in and try to steer it back to its original roots when that break occurs. Then we get the benefits of the free trade area and we haven't burned our bridges (because you just know that if we leave and then the EU collapses everyone will blame the UK for destabilising it).

2) that works on the assumption that you are master of your own destiny in the first place, and that you will remain so. Well, as I've said numerous times, I don't feel that way. I do what I can within the system imposed on me, but I have little to no say in that system. And even ignoring the personal aspect, the UK only gets to be master of its own destiny if it can negotiate sufficiently beneficial trade agreements with other nations. Show any weakness there and we'll risk being swallowed up by larger, more powerful economies that we just can't compete with...

[SeriousSam]

Listening to most of the Out supporters speak, it's not uncertain at all. They seem to know exactly what's going to happen with the EU, and that's exactly why they want out.

My point is that even if there is uncertainty it's relatively predictable. We can model the trajectory, we know what we're letting ourselves in for. We have data to base those predictions on. Getting out isn't predictable at all. We have no data to model that outcome. No-one's come up with a convincing set of trajectories that have any reasonable confidence intervals on them. We've had lots of guess work based on numerous assumptions. Perhaps it's having worked in close proximity to so many academics for so long, or perhaps it's living with someone with professional expertise in simulation and modelling, or perhaps it's just because I like data, but I find the concept of making a decision backed by that little data horrifying.

My spaceship is on a crash course into a sun and I have no way to alter it. My only other option is to press the hyperspace button, but this close to a large mass I could end up anywhere. So do I accept certain death or roll the dice? If we stuck with what we know you and I would be grunting this argument in caves.

Two thoughts on that.

1) if the EU's going to fragment then it's going to get harder and harder for it to impose its will on member nations anyway, so why not stay in and try to steer it back to its original roots when that break occurs. Then we get the benefits of the free trade area and we haven't burned our bridges (because you just know that if we leave and then the EU collapses everyone will blame the UK for destabilising it).

2) that works on the assumption that you are master of your own destiny in the first place, and that you will remain so. Well, as I've said numerous times, I don't feel that way. I do what I can within the system imposed on me, but I have little to no say in that system. And even ignoring the personal aspect, the UK only gets to be master of its own destiny if it can negotiate sufficiently beneficial trade agreements with other nations. Show any weakness there and we'll risk being swallowed up by larger, more powerful economies that we just can't compete with...

1. I'd rather get off a ship before it sinks than have a say in which way the lifeboat travels.

2. We are at the mercy of other countries economic shenanigans whether in or out of the EU. The difference being that out we choose to suit ourselves, and in it all comes down to who horse trades the best. So lets face facts, that will always be a German position tempered by French whining.

[scaryjim]

My spaceship is on a crash course into a sun and I have no way to alter it. My only other option is to press the hyperspace button, but this close to a large mass I could end up anywhere. So do I accept certain death or roll the dice?

Not really an equivalent situation, is it. It's more like you're travelling towards a safe trading station and you pick up an unknown signal in the opposite direction, but exploring it will mean you don't have enough fuel to reach that safe trading station. If you explore the signal there might be great things there, but you have no guarantee of not running out of fuel and ending up stranded on some godforsaken rock.

2. We are at the mercy of other countries economic shenanigans whether in or out of the EU. The difference being that out we choose to suit ourselves, and in it all comes down to who horse trades the best. So lets face facts, that will always be a German position tempered by French whining.

So what you're saying is the UK can't even negotiate the best deal for itself within the EU, and yet you think it can do that on a global scale? If the UK's economic position is strong enough to make it as a global economy on its own (and by GDP it might well be), why aren't we driving the EU economic policy? You know, I'm not convinced the UK's problem with the EU is actually the EU....

[The Hand]

I think you're a bit too pessimistic about what the UK can do outside EU and too optimistic what the UK can achieve inside the EU scaryjim.. and you would probably say the opposite about those who intend to vote out no doubt!

The thing is UK economy is larger than Canadian, Norwegian, Icelandic and Swiss economies combined. It is likely that the UK will be able to negotiate favourable trade deals outside the EU in my opinion.
Iceland actually withdrew it's application to the EU, realising it's better off making it's own deals and not having to submit to the EU one-size fits all straight jacket.

The British pound will fall more on Forex in the event of Brexit, but this will be great for UK exporters, even if the EU decides to be vindictive and impose tariffs on our exports. Tariffs on UK exports might make us a poorer admittedly, but that means we just have less money to buy German Mercs and French wine and cheese. They would be cutting their nose off to spite their face etc.

If the UK did leave the EU, all of a sudden there is a large European country outside EU with a devalued currency, happily exporting to the rest of the world, competing with and possibly out-performing the struggling EU. The UK could also act as a centre of gravity for other European countries who potentially could decide leave too. This of course is a nightmare scenario for the EU establishment with other European countries possibly turning away from the grip of the EU and following the British and/or EFTA model.