Predictions on when GPUs will be back at RRP.

[C_1]

I'd personally say you'd be looking at another 6 months at least. The fact Christmas is coming up means part prices have no real reason to decrease, as the demand is only going to increase. However I am seeing GPUs become more readily available so just seems like a slow path for them to come back down to MSRP. I like most, hopes it happens sooner rather then later but doubt it will be any time this year.

[Percy1983]

I'd personally say you'd be looking at another 6 months at least. The fact Christmas is coming up means part prices have no real reason to decrease, as the demand is only going to increase. However I am seeing GPUs become more readily available so just seems like a slow path for them to come back down to MSRP. I like most, hopes it happens sooner rather then later but doubt it will be any time this year.

I generally agree, seems I can get a 6700xt new from retailers at a high price (£700ish) but I can see if they sold at £450-500 the scalpers would buy them all and get them on ebay (currently £600-650) so its new at a high price or used at a lessor high price.

The problem is the longer it goes on the more demand, the more demand the more scalpers, the more scalpers the higher the prices. Worried we may be stuck in a eternal scalper loop with retailers/suppliers happy with lower sales at higher margins.

[Kovoet]

Got mine this mining. My 60th birthday present. Cannot wait to try this in CoD tonight

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

got mine this mining. My 60th birthday present. Cannot wait to try this in cod tonight

rtx3080?

[Kovoet]

3080Ti but ordered the Corsair 680x as this card is freggin huge.

[Saracen999]

....

The problem is the longer it goes on the more demand, the more demand the more scalpers, the more scalpers the higher the prices. Worried we may be stuck in a eternal scalper loop with retailers/suppliers happy with lower sales at higher margins.

True enough, but there's another factor that dampens down that cycle. The excess of demand over supply has been more or less continuous for quite a while because supply has been nearly zero. But, there is a finite number of people that are prevented from buying because, almost regardless of price, there are no new cards. And once most people that want a card get one, they are unlikely to want another one for several years. The supply of people prepared to pay excess prices drops by one every time someone succeeds. Adding to that is it's not just about who is willing to pay a given price, but about those able to. The higher the price, the fewer people in that tranche of buyers both willing and able, and being willing doesn't count if they aen't able.

For instance, for me, I need a card but there's a limit to how much I'm willing to pay that is significantly lower than what I could pay. When (and if) prices drop to my 'willing to' level, and there is stock available, I'll buy. But then, I'm no longer willing to buy another, whatever the price. When my demand is satisfied, my demand will disappear entirely, and for quite a long time.

At the moment,e seem to be in a phase where supply is slowly, in buts and ieces, coming back and as it does, demand will slowly reduce as users satisfy their need. A graphics card is not like, say, food, where demand is pretty solid and stable and auto-regenrating.

And up to a point, as demand eases and supply increases, prces will drop.

That is, of course, a implistuic analysis of supply and demand but the basic principles hold true .... unless either supply is suddnly completeky curtailed again, or for some reason, demand escalates. The latter is unlikely, certainly in the short term.

[CheroubZ]

It seems more like market manipulation tactics and a purposely planned shortage so msrp is never coming back likely as the plan worked flawlessly.

[DanceswithUnix]

And up to a point, as demand eases and supply increases, prces will drop.

Sadly right now there are still people who see GPUs as money printing machines, judging from the total Ethereum hash rate being at an all time high. Given Eth2.0 keeps getting put back, that isn't surprising, but it generates an infinite demand for GPUs.

[kompukare]

True enough, but there's another factor that dampens down that cycle. The excess of demand over supply has been more or less continuous for quite a while because supply has been nearly zero. But, there is a finite number of people that are prevented from buying because, almost regardless of price, there are no new cards. And once most people that want a card get one, they are unlikely to want another one for several years. The supply of people prepared to pay excess prices drops by one every time someone succeeds. Adding to that is it's not just about who is willing to pay a given price, but about those able to. The higher the price, the fewer people in that tranche of buyers both willing and able, and being willing doesn't count if they aen't able.

Well, the Steam survey implies that at least Nvidai have sold millions of Ampere cards which are in the hands of gamers (or part-time miners who install Steam).

However, the Etherum global hashrate Dances mentioned does how millions of cards hashing away and since - in terms of efficiency - Ampere is the most popular mining GPU, millions of cards are also in miners hands.

As I keep saying, demand is crazy from both gamers and miners with both willing to pay over the odds. I suspect lots of gamers have paid extra with the logic that they can make of the excess back via mining.

As for people keeping cards for years: unsure on that one as there are so many serial constant upgraders. On another forum I was in a "is 10GB enough for the 3080" thread and even with a few recent games getting close to over the the VRAM limit, lots of posters there didn't care with "it has lasted the last year and the 4000 series will be out soon" posts. Constantly upgrading every 1-2 years is, I suspect, also one of the reasons why way back when Nvidia got into so little trouble for selling millions of parts with defective solder: this mainly happened after 3 years all the influential forum posters had already upgraded.

[DanceswithUnix]

As for people keeping cards for years: unsure on that one as there are so many serial constant upgraders.

Don't those serial upgraders usually sell their old card on in the second hand market? So it still satisfies someone's need (though currently gives a second crack at a crypto miner ending up with it).

Years back I used to upgrade about every 18 months, but my old card would go to someone else in the family so while it wasn't just me getting use of a card it would get up to 5 years use somehow. I *could* have upgraded other people's machines as needed, but always figured upgrading mine and handing down was a perk of providing all the house IT support

[Saracen999]

....

As for people keeping cards for years: unsure on that one as there are so many serial constant upgraders. On another forum I was in a "is 10GB enough for the 3080" thread and even with a few recent games getting close to over the the VRAM limit, lots of posters there didn't care with "it has lasted the last year and the 4000 series will be out soon" posts. Constantly upgrading every 1-2 years is, I suspect, also one of the reasons why way back when Nvidia got into so little trouble for selling millions of parts with defective solder: this mainly happened after 3 years all the influential forum posters had already upgraded.

That's partly why I said my analysis was simplistic - it's far more granular than simple 'supply v demand' economics would suggest. But then, that is and always was why economic laws can identify basic trends, but you have to get into complex econometrics to get anywhere even close to reality.

Sure, some gamers will upgrade every year but I'd suggest that that will only be hardcore gamers, and even then, hardcore gamers with healthy bank balances. There will be another large group that have the inclination to upgrade every year (or even more frequently) but not the funds to actually do it.

There will also be those like me that do have the funds, but not the inclination. I'm currently after either a high-end gaming laptop, or the parts for a gaming PC build (or maybe, ready-built). I don't really need much more than 3060 (and maybe not even that), but I'm thinking 3080 (or Ti) because whatever I get, I don't want to be doing it again for many years. If ever.

I take the VRAM point, too. Oh, do I ever. One of my criteria ia to get a card now with sufficient VRAM to cope with most increases in game demands, for the reasonably foreseeable future, and 8GB is starting to look inadequate for that, even now. But that applies only up to a point. And once I get whatever I end up opting for (assuming I can actually get it) it will be years before I consider changing it. Which is, of course, why I'm especially nervous about VRAM now. In the next few years, whatever my card spec is will determine what games I even attempt to run. If the demands are to high, the result won't be upgrading the card, it'll be not buying the game. The other factor, of course, is restricting myself to games that I can get DRM-free, which probably drops me back a year or two from the bleeding edge of gaming, extending the card longevity even more. But that's a different thread, and an old one at that.

Anyway, the point was that 'gamers' aren't an amorphous mass easily lumped into a single demand figure, but a seriously granulated spectrum with both different motivations to buy, and abilities to indulge. Quantifying those granulations would require data I certainly don't have.

[kompukare]

CB's second Sept 21 tracking isn't good news:

https://www.computerbase.de/2021-09/...teuer-wie-nie/


Converted into something a bit easier to read:


Looks like those overpriced 6600 XT at launch were as good as it got outside of FE models (haven't looked by in theory in German they should be able AMD references models too).

[hilly17]

November time should put up a few good deals but probably not very big savings over all.

[kompukare]

Well, if CEX are psychic not any day soon.

Since misjuging the market and selling my 6GB 1060 last September, I've recently been watching CEX prices and for those I watched I noticed that today they've increased their prices by a +£10 pretty much across the board on anything between about £80 and £300+.

So there goes my idea of maybe doing a complex swap my of backup (and only) card for something else. Currently using an 1GB R7 260X which they'd give me £21 voucher credit for so was eyeing a 2GB 1050 which be a roughly +£70 step up. Steep for a 2GB card but a 1050 is a useful backup card anyhow.

[Percy1983]

So I can get an AMD 6600, for less than I sold by vega 56 with a small increase in performance and less power draw than my vega 56.

I just don't think I can bring myself to buy it and say the price is ok as it really isn't ok (as are the 6600xt, 3060, 3060ti prices).

[kompukare]

So I can get an AMD 6600, for less than I sold by vega 56 with a small increase in performance and less power draw than my vega 56.

I just don't think I can bring myself to buy it and say the price is ok as it really isn't ok (as are the 6600xt, 3060, 3060ti prices).

While I like the idea of better efficiency, the prices are pretty poor and I'd wonder how long a 128-bit card no matter how clever the caching is will last?

The perf/watt is actually a lot better (although both CB and TPU only have a Vega64 in their results).
ComputerBase:

and TechPowerUp:


If I were to go crazy and spend big, I'd rather go all the way and get a 6800 with the full Infinity Cache and 16GB. Crazy, but I'd at least feel it has some longevity.