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Thread: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

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    AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Smarter Analyst states that ETH ASIC Miners might be the answer to end the GPU shortage.
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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    I thought i read that Ethereum was meant to reduce the efficiency of using ASIC and in turn prevent mining being a rich mans sport.

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Pretty sure AMD's shares are mostly driven by their CPU business. Sure, I'd expect GPU demand to drop when miners ditch GPUs again, but given how tepid the response to VEGA was I would be surprised if their shares dipped as much as predicted here.

    Also, won't this probable drop in GPU demand affect NVidia more?

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Quote Originally Posted by Corky34 View Post
    I thought i read that Ethereum was meant to reduce the efficiency of using ASIC and in turn prevent mining being a rich mans sport.
    I guess they've had enough time to work out a more efficient way of mining with ASICs

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Umm,so some analyst from one site says AMD stock needs to drop 30% and its newsworthy?? Surely in the light of the other scandal,this is more likely another attempt at stock shorting??


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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Quote Originally Posted by Corky34 View Post
    I thought i read that Ethereum was meant to reduce the efficiency of using ASIC and in turn prevent mining being a rich mans sport.
    A GPU *is* an ASIC. Making mining dependant on speed of ASIC memory to try and keep GPUs relevant always struck me as odd. I mean,how do you make stuff more accessible to the masses by making it more resource heavy and hence more expensive? It does make sense for people who have invested in GPU farms who want to keep them running, so I presume they will try and talk up some new currency that is still GPU only.

    Edit: Given the downwards trend in Bitcoin price dragging all other currencies with it this all seems rather academic anyway.

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Quote Originally Posted by afiretruck View Post
    ... Also, won't this probable drop in GPU demand affect NVidia more?
    AMD cards are more efficient for mining, so are in higher demand for mining. AMD's overall shipments are smaller, and mining probably makes up a larger proportion of that smaller number anyway. So it seems likely that any drop off of demand from miners would hit AMD's sales harder than NVidias.

    OTOH, the way prices have shot up suggests that AMD haven't been meeting that demand in the first place, so just how "bad" this will be for AMD is hard to judge. A lot depends on whether they were seeing any of the extra cash that was being demanded on top of MSRP for consumer cards. If that money was all going to the retailers and card partners, and AMD was only seeing the baseline GPU price anyway, then a drop in demand that wasn't being met anyway won't impact them at all - it'll impact the card partners and retailers, who'll have to reign prices back to nearer MSRP.

    And I strongly suspect that AMD's supply contracts to their card partners are drawn up in advance and don't allow much flexibility on price - which would make that scenario more likely...

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Quote Originally Posted by scaryjim View Post
    AMD cards are more efficient for mining. AMD's overall shipments are smaller, and mining p[robably makes up a larger proportion of that smaller number anyway. So it seems likely that any drop off of demand from miners would hit AMD's sales harder than NVidias.

    OTOH, the way prices have shot up suggests that AMD haven't been meeting that demand in the first place, so just how "bad" this will be for AMD is hard to judge. A lot depends on whether they were seeing any of the extra cash that was being demanded on top of MSRP for consumer cards. If that money was all going to the retailers and card partners, and AMD was only seeing the baseline GPU costs, then a drop in demand that wasn't being met anyway won't impact them at all - it'll impact the card partners and retailers, who'll have to reign prices back to nearer MSRP.

    And I strongly suspect that AMD's supply contracts to their card partners are drawn up in advance and don't allow much flexibility on price - which would make that scenario more likely...
    IIRC,I remember reading somewhere AMD hadn't really increased GPU production that much,as the last time there was a mining craze,they did and their partners ended up with loads of cards they could not sell,unless they were discounted.

    A bigger question is if mining goes back to normal levels,and loads of secondhand AMD and Nvidia cards are dumped on the market,what this might do for new cards sales from both companies.


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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Christopher Rolland is a vicar and a Prof of Scripture in Oxford... he migh thave some higher vision... trust the old boy ;-)

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Sounds like more shorting of stock or maybe someone trying to get a better deal for a take over!

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Quote Originally Posted by DanceswithUnix View Post
    A GPU *is* an ASIC.
    Technically yes as they don't (afaik) have programmable logic blocks but i would have thought when i said ASIC and GPU that the distinction would have been clear, apparently not though. It could be argued after all that a GPU isn't application specific (from a non-technical view) as they're used for a lot more than one application, such as video decoding, physics processing, etc, etc, if anything they're a collection of different ASICs but then you also have the addition of programmable shader pipelines.

    Anyhow ^That's^ probably way off topic, as you were people.

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Quote Originally Posted by Corky34 View Post
    Technically yes as they don't (afaik) have programmable logic blocks but i would have thought when i said ASIC and GPU that the distinction would have been clear, apparently not though. It could be argued after all that a GPU isn't application specific (from a non-technical view) as they're used for a lot more than one application, such as video decoding, physics processing, etc, etc, if anything they're a collection of different ASICs but then you also have the addition of programmable shader pipelines.

    Anyhow ^That's^ probably way off topic, as you were people.
    I was just trying to point out that the distinction is pretty arbitrary. Saying that GPUs are allowed for mining but other chips are somehow "offside" and hence unfair and shouldn't be allowed. Any other group of people usually likes it when new technology comes along that accelerates what they are doing.

    Still, I would have thought my other point is more relevant. when ASICs took over BitCoin people moved to other altcoins. I don't see anything stopping them moving again given there was no real need to move last time.

    Another thing, there seem to be Linux patches turning up for Vega 12 which implies some sort of new product imminent. With the pent up demand from people like me who have been eager to buy a GPU just not at that price and the possibility of a new Vega chip (even if it is just the silicon usually paired with the Intel 8809G) AMD's future looks fine to me. Can I have lots of money for being an "Analyst" now? Seems like money for old rope to me

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Happy days!

    I just need to figure if I buy a second RX580 and crossfire or a vega 56 in great AMD miner sell off.

    I am leaning more towards a second RX580 as if its had a hard life being a secondary card in a crossfire setup shouldn't work it as often and also I know my main card has never been abused so if the secondary dies I will still have a reliable primary.

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    So Nvidia affected aswell https://overclock3d.net/news/gpu_displays/analysts_downgrade_amd_and_nvidia_s_financial_outlooks_over_rumoured_ethereum_mining_asic/1

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Quote Originally Posted by Percy1983 View Post
    I just need to figure if I buy a second RX580 and crossfire or a vega 56 in great AMD miner sell off..
    It really depends on how much you can get them for. Firstly I'd hold off unless you can get them (used) for < 50% RRP.

    Assuming you can get them for that much, I'd recommend the Vega, as you'll have much better performance scaling and game support with a single card over crossfire.

    Though, as you said, it does depend on how long you think it could last.

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    Re: AMD stock downgraded due to imminent ETH ASIC Miner release

    Quote Originally Posted by CAT-THE-FIFTH View Post
    A bigger question is if mining goes back to normal levels,and loads of secondhand AMD and Nvidia cards are dumped on the market,what this might do for new cards sales from both companies.
    I can imagine a lot of people being cautious about buying second hand cards when they do start appearing. A £220 RX 580 8GB, bought for £350+ to mine, what would it sell for smelling slightly toasty? CEX would give you £208 cash or £252 store credit today, can't see that lasting long if they do become available at RRP again. £100 second hand would tempt me to take the gamble on a card.

    What both companies really need is a genuine new generation of cards to distance themselves and devalue the last generation enough that people will want to stump up more for a new one. Will that come in time? Will that just be a rebadging exercise? If you can buy a RX 665* for £150 in a couple of months time that is comparable in some way to the (then over a year old) RX 580 then the second hand market will really struggle. I suspect we've plateaued for a while though.

    * model name made up

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